2023 Bills Late-Season Run Eerily Similar to 2021 Run

Well, they did it!  The Buffalo Bills came back from the depths of regular season hell and not only clinched a playoff birth, but won the AFC East and are the conference’s #2 seed.

After the Bills lost to the Eagles on November 26^th, their playoff hopes were in ruin at 6-6. If you remember, all the “experts” had counted the Bills out, saying they’d need to go on a 4-1 run to have a chance at the playoffs, but more realistically would need to go 5-0 and have a little help if they wanted to make the postseason.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Bills pulled it off. They beat the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins among other teams to finish the season 5-0 and with a little help from the Titans and Ravens, they caught up with the Dolphins for their 4^th consecutive AFC East title.

After the team’s lowest point in the 2023 season, the demoralizing Week 10 loss to the Broncos; when Josh Allen was asked about his team’s playoff chances and the uphill battle his team was about to endure, he said, “We’ve done it before,” referring to the 2021 season.

The 2021 Buffalo Bills season was a rollercoaster much like the 2023 season. Buffalo would lose week 1 to the Steelers, then get on a roll, going 4-1 and then sputter mid-season going 3-5 down the stretch. After losing to the Buccaneers in 2021, the Bills dropped to 7-6 and were on the brink of missing the playoffs for the first time in three seasons.

However, with their backs against the wall, Buffalo would rattle off four straight wins, ending the season 11-6, winning the AFC East and claiming the #3 seed.

In those last four 2021 games, the Bills opponents were a combined 25-37 (.403) and their margin of victory in those four games was +60 points (15 points per game). Josh Allen’s QB rating was an underwhelming 78.92—down substantially from his 92.2 rating that season.

As Bills Mafia knows, 2023 was another whirlwind season. The Bills would lose their week one game to the Jets, then go 3-1 and begin their mid-season struggles, going 3-5 until they went on to win their remaining five games.

This season, the Bills last five opponents had a combined winning percentage of .506 (.403 in 2021) and their average margin of victory was 7.8 points per game (down from 15 ppg in 2021). Just as in 2021, Josh Allen had a pedestrian 81.7 quarterback rating (78.92 in 2021) which was down from his 92.2 overall QB rating over the season.

Overall, the 2021 and 2023 seasons have been quite similar and if history is going to continue to repeat itself, we’re in for a wild 2023 postseason from Josh Allen.  Between the dismantling of the Patriots in the Wild Card round and the demoralizing “13 Seconds” game in Kansas City, Josh Allen had a QB Rating of 148.9 and had the Bills beat Kansas City that night, odds are the Bills would have won the Super Bowl.