Bills Breakdown: Chiefs-Bills rivalry adds another chapter

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are a well-known rivalry amongst NFL fans, and this Sunday they’ll add another chapter to their story.

A 4:25pm kickoff in Orchard Park between an undefeated Patrick Mahomes and an 8-2 Josh Allen.

As a football fan, these are the games you live for. Two great teams, coaches, and fan bases that are looking to watch their team come out on top.

This game could decide the #1 seed in the AFC in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at the top storylines and what to expect.

Injury report

Bills Key Injuries:

• QB Josh Allen (Left Hand) – No Designation (Full practice)
• CB Christian Benford (Wrist) – No Designation (Full practice)
• LB Terrel Bernard (Ankle/Pectoral) – No Designation (Full practice)
• OT Spencer Brown (Ankle) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
• WR Keon Coleman (Wrist) – OUT
• WR Amari Cooper (Wrist) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
• CB Kaiir Elam (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
• FB Reggie Gilliam (Hip) – No Designation (Full practice)
• WR Mack Hollins (Shoulder) – No Designation (Limited practice)
• DT DaQuan Jones (Foot) – No Designation (Full practice)
• TE Dalton Kincaid (Knee) – OUT
• LB Matt Milano (Biceps) – OUT (Limited practice)
• TE Quintin Morris (Shoulder/Hamstring) – No Designation (Full practice)
• S Taylor Rapp (Foot) – No Designation (Full practice)
• WR Curtis Samuel (Pectoral) – No Designation (Full practice)
• LB Dorian Williams (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
• DE Casey Toohill (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)

Chiefs Key Injuries:

• DE Charles Omenihu (Knee) – OUT
• RB Isiah Pacheco (Ankle) – OUT
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Hamstring) – No Designation (Full practice)
• DE Michael Danna (Pectoral) – No Designation (Full practice)
• WR Mecole Hardman (Shoulder/Toe) – No Designation (Full practice)
• WR DeAndre Hopkins (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
• RB Kareem Hunt (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
• DE George Karlaftis (Abdomen/Ankle) – No Designation (Full practice)
• QB Patrick Mahomes (Ankle/Hip) – No Designation (Full practice)
• OL Wanya Morris (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
• DT Derrick Nnadi (Triceps) – No Designation (Full practice)

No Coleman, no Kincaid, no problem

As we’ve seen, the Buffalo Bills like to run the ball. In fact, they’re 11th in the league in run rate. James Cook and Ray Davis have been great on the ground, but this week could be different. Kansas City has been stout against the run, allowing just 83.2 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 3.7 yards per rushing play (2nd in NFL). The Bills could lean on rookie Ray Davis a little more than usual as he has forced 19 missed tackles on rushes this season. That number is important, seeing as the Chiefs missed only 11.1% of their tackles this season (4th-lowest in NFL).

The passing game for the Bills will determine how the offense performs. With Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid out, they’ll need everyone to step up. One player I expect to step up is the always-reliable Khalil Shakir. The third-year wide receiver has not dropped a pass this season while reeling in 90.6% of his targets. With the Chiefs blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (36.5%), Allen will be looking to get the ball out fast. He’s been successful against the blitz this season, throwing for 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on such occasions.

The key to the game for the Bills offense against the Chiefs defense will be slowing down one man: Chris Jones. He’s a game wrecker. They won’t be able to completely take him out of the game but minimizing his impact is key. My offensive MVP this game is James Cook. In order for the Bills to be successful, Cook will need to be a focal point through the air and on the ground.

Babich’s first time against Mahomes

Back in September, the Chiefs saw their star running back Isiah Pacheco go down with a broken fibula. Since then they have struggled to run the ball, averaging 3.8 yards per rushing play (T-2nd worst in NFL). This bodes well for the Bills defense as they’ve allowed 4.9 yards per rushing play (4th worst in NFL). With the Bills and Chiefs being equally bad in this aspect of the game, the battle on the ground could ultimately decide this game. Ed Oliver and the defensive line will have to get a good push up front to help the linebackers minimize the Kansas City run game.

In the passing game, the Bills have too many nightmares about tight end Travis Kelce. In seven games between the Chiefs and Bills, Kelce has averaged 7.3 catches for 86 yards and 1.1 touchdowns. Terrel Bernard will have his hands full with him so I’d expect him to have some help throughout the game. The key matchup up front will be defensive end Gregory Rousseau versus tackle Jawaan Taylor. Taylor has allowed a 6.8% pressure rate (7th-lowest in NFL), while Rousseau has generated 36 pressures on the year (15th in NFL). If Rousseau can win the battle, the Bills secondary’s job becomes easier.

The key for the Bills defense will be minimizing the Chiefs secondary weapons (Worthy, Hopkins, etc.). Their stars will get their numbers, but if they allow the secondary weapons to beat them, it’ll be a long day. My defensive MVP this week is going to be Von Miller. While it didn’t show on the stat sheet, Miller looked great last week against Colts’ right tackle Braden Smith. I’m expecting him to come up big on third downs.

Gameday expectation

This rivalry has produced some classics in NFL history, and I’m expecting more of the same this Sunday. Both teams are well-coached and talented. It could come down to one or two plays late in the fourth quarter. The Bills are 1.5-point favorites with the over/under being set at 46.5 total points. While I can easily see the Bills winning this game, I’m going with the Chiefs to narrowly pull out a 28-24 win.