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Josh Allen is having the best season of his seven-year career, and if it ended today he would be the odds-on favorite to be named the league’s Most Valuable Player.
According to FanDuel, Allen’s odds for MVP are -280, which is a giant leap away from the next highest favored player, running back Saquon Barkley.
Speaking of Barkley, no non-quarterback has won MVP since Adrian Peterson won it 13 years ago.
After Barkley, the highest odds of winning the award go to Lamar Jackson at a further-distant +850. Jackson has had a great season. He has 32 total touchdowns, nearly 4,000 total yards, and a league-high passer rating of 116.3.
However, Jackson’s Ravens are 8-5 and trailing the 9-3 Steelers in the AFC North. A quarterback hasn’t won MVP for a second-place division finish since Peyton Manning did it in 2008.
The table is set for the Josh Allen’s first MVP.
Why Josh Allen?
Allen has been a top-five MVP finisher in three of the past four seasons. Over this time, his play has been exceptional, and his team has won their division each year.
So why hasn’t Josh Allen won an MVP yet? Simple– turnovers.
From the 2020-2023 seasons, Allen committed 75 turnovers—easily the most in the NFL over this span.
This season, however, through twelve games, Allen has committed only seven turnovers.
Also, his play continues to be electric and he has willed his team to multiple victories this season and been the catalyst for the Bills offense’s successes.
Josh Allen’s passing statistics aren’t eye popping. He’s currently outside of the top-five in most significant quarterback categories.
But when it comes to the league’s most valuable player, there are attributes more important than stats—such as leadership, team success and the ability to put a team on your back and lead your team to victory.
Bottom line, the Bills wouldn’t be close to where they are this season without No. 17.
But more than anything, Allen is showing the football world that he can win without superstars and that the Bills can plug almost anyone in at the wide receiver spot and Allen will continue to have success.
The national media left the Bills for dead after an offseason that saw them part ways with a “who’s who” of veterans that were influential to the Bills success over the past five seasons.
Now they are as good as they’ve ever been, and it’s because of Allen.
What will it take for Josh Allen not to win MVP?
The MVP is Allen’s to lose.
And if he has costly turnovers that lead to Bills losses over their final five regular season games, it would undoubtedly tarnish his excellent season and open the door for another candidate to take the top spot.
However, Allen has put together an impressive body of work over the first twelve games and the Bills already locked up the division. Allen regressing to a level that would cost him the MVP over the next five games, only one of which is against a team with a winning record, is unlikely.
Bring home the hardware, Josh!
