What might the Bills' draft board look like at pick 27? -

Recently, Brandon Beane stated to the media that their plan for the upcoming draft is to select the best player available on the board. He went on to say that their draft board has not yet been finalized. As fans and Bills staff eagerly await the draft, it is crucial to gain an understanding of who the players are that will most likely be available for the Bills to select in the first round.

To help with this, ESPN Analytics has developed a model that takes into account prospect grades from Scouts Inc., expert mock drafts, team needs, and other relevant factors. This model is weighed based on how accurate these factors have been in the past. By utilizing this model, fans can gain a better understanding of who will be on the board when the Bills are on the clock.

Given the previous experience, the needs of the teams, and the draft weighting, the model first returns us what is the probability that the player will be available in a range of picks. Second, it estimates which players are most likely to be selected in a pick.

Based on the ESPN Analytics model, if the Bills decide to keep their #27 pick, the likely draft board they will face has been estimated:

Jalin Hyatt WR – Tennessee: 100% (#35 – #45)
Josh Downs WR – UNC: 100%.
Jack Campbell ILB – Iowa: 100%
Drew Sanders ILB – Arkansas: 100%
Anton Harrison OT – Oklahoma: 100% (#31-#38)
Dawand Jones OT – OSU: 100%.
Mazi Smith DT – Clemson: 100% (#29-#40)
Keeanu Benton DT – Winsconsin: 100% (#38-#60)
Trenton Simpsons OLB – Clemson: 90% (#26-#32)
Will McDonald IV DE – Iowa: 90%. (#28-#34)
Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE – Kansas St: 90% (#29-#41)
Adetomiwa Adebawore DE – Northwestern: 90% (#29-#34)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB – Alabama: 85% (#21-#33)
Bryan Bresee DT – Clemson: 80% (#26-#32)
Quentin Johston WR – TCU: 50% (#20-#27)
Jordan Addison WR – USC: 38% (#20-#27)
Calijah Kancey DT – Pittsburgh: 31%. (#17-#23)
Myles Murphy DE – Clemson: 28%. (#20-#24)
Zay Flowers WR – Boston College: 25%. (#20-#23)
Darnell Wright OT – Tennessee: 5%. (#16-#:19)
Bijan Robinson RB – Texas: < 5%(#10-#:19)

In this scenario, Bryan Bresee, Jordan Addison, and Quentin Johnston are the three most likely players for the Bills to consider selecting based on their needs.

But, what if the Bills decide to trade up in the draft? How much would the draft board change? To simulate this scenario, we can use the trade made by the Seahawks and Packers in 2018 as a base, and calculate the value of the trade by the NFL draft pick value chart.

Bills receive:
» 2023 first-round pick (No. 19)

Buccaneers receive:
» 2023 first-round pick (No. 27)
» 2023 Third-round pick (No. 91)
» 2023 Fourth-round pick (No. 130) » 2024 Fifth-round pick.

So if the Bills decide to trade up to the #19 pick, the draft board they will likely face has been estimated:

Bryan Bresee DT – Clemson: 80% (#26-#32)
Quentin Johston WR – TCU: 95% (#20-#27)
Jordan Addison WR – USC: 95% (#20-#27)
Myles Murphy DE – Clemson: 80%. (#20-#24)
Calijah Kancey DT – Pittsburgh: 78%. (#17-#23)
Zay Flowers WR – Boston College: 80%. (#20-#23)
Darnell Wright OT – Tennessee: 45%. (#16-#:19)
Broderick Jones OT – Georgia: 20%
Bijan Robinson RB – Texas: 20 %(#10-#:19)
Luke Van Ness DE – Iowa: 15%
Paris Johnson Jr. OT – OSU: 15%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR – OSU: 10%

In this scenario, Zay Flowers, Bryan Bresee , and Darnell Wright are the three most likely players for the Bills to consider.

To account for the last scenario, it’s important to note that any players with a 100% probability of being selected at pick #27 were not included in the trade scenarios.

How do you see the first round playing out, Bills Mafia?