Betting Buffalo with Ben: Week 3, Bills at Dolphins
Week 2 record: 3-1; record on the year: 6-2
Here we are, already in Week 3 of the NFL season. We’ve had back to back 3-1 weeks to start the year, so let’s see if we can keep this hot streak going! Jumping right into my favorite plays of this week:
Bills Team Total over 29.5
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Bills have scored 72 points in their first two games and have hit their team total twice already. This is going to be an automatic bet for me until I see something where the Bills offense slows down. Allen and Diggs look to be unstoppable right now, Davis will be back for this game and the Dolphins defense just let Lamar Jackson torch them for 38 points last week. Bills should get this number easily.
You could take the over in the game at 52.5, especially with all the Bills injuries on the defensive side of the ball. However, I choose to take the Bills team total since I don’t like rooting for the opposing team to score points to win my bet. But you do you. We’re going Bill team total for our first bet of the week!
Josh Allen over 276.5 passing yards
This is another bet that seems like an automatic tail at this point. Allen has easily surpassed this number in his first two games, and in a game that is expected to be a shootout I think Allen is going to be throwing the ball a good amount.
Xavien Howard, the star cornerback for the Dolphins is questionable right now with a groin injury and it’s looking unlikely that he’ll play. That would be big news for the Bills and their passing game as that would open the field up for Stefon Diggs especially, as well as the rest of that receiving core.
Gabriel Davis over 3.5 receptions
I mean, come on! This one is juicy at -166. We’re saying Davis isn’t going to catch four balls? That’s crazy. If anything this is a great parlay piece for something else, or it’s still a solid enough bet to take straight up.
Davis is going to catch four passes in this game. His ankle is feeling better. Davis himself said that he’s ready to go and he’s 100% playing in this game. As pass heavy as the Bills offense is, Davis will find himself catching four passes. He might even get that in the first half if Allen looks his way.
It will be interesting to see how much Davis is utilized considering his injury, but reports have been positive from practice, and he’s ready to get back on the field and make some plays. He knows how big this game is.
Dawson Knox Touchdown
Dawson Knox Touchdown bets have been my only two losses so far since I started doing this Bills betting segment. Yes, it’s a little bit of a shot in the dark, but I’m taking it at +220 value this week. I think it is still some of the best value on the team for the Bills players. He’s due to score, right? He was more involved last week, catching four passes. In a game that was mainly dominated by Diggs, Knox was still involved and he should continue to be involved this week.
Miami struggles against tight ends. We saw Mark Andrews tear up their secondary last week, and I believe that this will be the week that Knox gets into the end zone finally.
At + 220, it’s worth a sprinkle at least. But to me, he seems to be getting ready to roll after not being involved much in Week 1.
In conclusion I like nearly all of the Bills passing props. This should be a fairly high scoring affair and the way that the Bills offense is humming right now, it’s not going to be a bad thing to take Diggs, Davis, Knox etc. and their receiving yards or receptions.
Assuming Miami gets their share of scores as well on the very depleted Buffalo secondary, you know the Bills will not let up. Expect some big games from everyone in the Buffalo aerial attack.
To recap:
Bills Team Total over 29.5 (-110)
Josh Allen over 276.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Gabe Davis over 3.5 receptions (-166)
Dawson Knox anytime TD (+220)
