Buffalo Bills
Bills 2024 Offseason Objective: Get Younger and Cheaper
When the NFL free agency bell tolls in less than a month, Bills General Manager, Brandon Beane and his staff will have some crucial decisions to make.
The 2024 NFL league year begins on Wednesday, March 13th. At this point, the Bills will officially be nearly $57 Million over the Salary Cap according to Spotrac.
Yes, contract renegotiations will be done to clear cap space just like in years past; but the bottom line is that the Bills must get younger and cheaper beginning in 2024.
Just like in 2023, Brandon Beane likely will not make any “splash” free agent signings with his cap dollars being severely limited—and it’s likely most 2024 Bills free agents will not be back unless they’re willing to give the Bills a “hometown discount.”
Here is a list of players who are under contract in 2024 and a list of those who will enter free agency. This graphic includes those players under contract who have a good chance of being cut and those free agents who may return if the price is right.
As mentioned earlier, the Bills need to get younger and cheaper this offseason. The most efficient way to do this is through the draft. And as it stands today, the Bills have 10 total draft picks this April with 7 of those picks on day three of the draft (4ththrough 7th rounds).
Brandon Beane and company have found some gems on the third day of the draft including Khalil Shakir (5th round), Christian Benford (6th round), Gabe Davis (4th round), Dane Jackson (7th round) and Taron Johnson (4th round) and they’ll need to find a couple more in 2024.
Here is a mock draft that would make the most sense for the Bills this April and fill some positional needs in 2024.
Round 1 (28th overall) Safety, Tyler Nubin
The days of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are likely over. If either of them returns, it’ll be Poyer as he is still under contract. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have always had a solid secondary and getting younger in that position is a necessity this offseason.
Tyler Nubin’s size, run stopping ability and projected NFL instincts would be a welcome sight for new defensive coordinator, Bobby Babich and would be a great addition to a safety position who currently only has Poyer and Damar Hamlin under contract.
Round 2 (60th overall) Defensive Line, Kris Jenkins
Another depleted position for the Bills is defensive line. The Bills would love to have DaQuan Jones back on a cap-friendly deal in 2024, but that likely won’t be in the cards. Currently, the only Bills defensive lineman under contract is Ed Oliver.
Though he still needs to develop his pass rushing arsenal, Kris Jenkins has the strength to become a solid run-gap stopper and would be a strong candidate to start week 1 for the Bills at DL opposite Oliver.
Round 3 (99th overall) Wide Receiver, Jacob Cowing
After Stefon Diggs, the Bills don’t have a legitimate #2 wide receiver, even if they re-sign Gabe Davis. Khalil Shakir has cemented himself into the Bills slot receiver and Justin Shorter may be a #5 WR at best.
Although the Bills may draft a receiver earlier than the third round, there is value in drafting Jacob Cowing with the 99th overall pick.
Cowing’s incredible body control combined with his breakaway speed could spell doom for NFL defenses who will already have to deal with Diggs, Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in the Bills 2024 offense.
Round 4 (129th overall) Running Back, Braelon Allen
James Cook will continue to improve in his third season with the Bills. But after him, there likely will be no one. The Bills will likely sign a discounted free agent running back but will need to find someone to compliment James Cook in future years.
Braelon Allen not only has the frame (listed at 245 pounds) but has excellent footwork. He is also projected to be a good pass blocker—something that the Bills valued in Latavius Murray and will be looking for in 2024.
Round 5 (159th overall) Wide Receiver, Isaiah Williams
The Bills will be looking for depth at the wide receiver position and will likely draft multiple wide receivers in 2024.
Isaiah Williams is a sure-handed receiver who can get yards after the catch.
Round 5 (162nd overall) Center, Drake Nugent
Mitch Morse wants to be back with the Bills in 2024. He’ll likely have to negotiate his salary. The Bills have Ryan Bates waiting in the wings if Morse doesn’t return but will need to draft a replacement sometime soon.
Round 6 (197th overall) EDGE, Brennan Jackson
With Greg Rousseau, unproven Kingsley Jonathan and an aging, inconsistent Von Miller the only three EDGE rushers under contract; the Bills will likely look for a free agent defensive end and pick one up in the draft—and it may be with a day one or two pick.
Round 6 (202nd overall) Tackle, Nathan Thomas
Although the Bills are deep in the tackle position, this late in the draft they may be looking for the best available player to add depth and get younger.
Round 6 (206th overall) Linebacker, Ty’Ron Hopper
When healthy, the linebacker position may be the most talented position on the Bills roster. It never hurts to add depth.
Round 7 (246th overall) Quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa
The Bills haven’t drafted a quarterback since Jake Fromm in 2020. At some point they’ll need to get cheaper at the quarterback position instead of bringing in one-and-done backups to Josh Allen.
For the first time in Josh Allen’s seven-year career, the Buffalo Bills will be returning four primary offensive line starters from the previous season. The only missing lineman from 2023 is Mitch Morse, who the Bills released this past March.
Primary starting offensive linemen returning to the Bills in 2024 are:
Left Tackle, Dion Dawkins
Left Guard, Connor McGovern
Right Guard, O’Cyrus Torrence
Right Tackle, Spencer Brown
There is a good chance that Connor McGovern moves to center, opening the door for David Edwards to take over the starting left guard position.
In four seasons with the Rams, David Edwards started in 45 out of 53 games active and is lauded by Bills coaching staff.
The other possibility is for the center position to go to rookie, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, who the Bills drafted in the 5th round this past April.
The Bills starting offensive line will look to continue to improve on an already solid 2023 performance. The ’23 front five allowed their quarterback to only be sacked 4% of his drop backs in 2023, the lowest mark in the league.
Much of the 2023 Bills offensive line success can be attributed to health. All five starting offensive linemen started all 17 games in 2023—a trend that the Bills coaching staff would like to continue in 2024.
With six seasons under his belt, Josh Allen’s stock has risen to a point that many consider him the greatest Bills quarterback of all time, challenging the formerly undisputed top QB, Jim Kelly.
But how does one assess greatness amongst two quarterbacks from two different eras? And how would one decipher what attributes make one quarterback better than another.
Recently, I took a deep-dive into both Jim Kelly and Josh Allen’s career. Through looking at both quarterbacks’ statistics, teammates and clutch performances; I hope to settle the debate once and for all.
Many base their opinions on their “eye test”—Josh Allen has a stronger arm, bigger frame, can run faster and do things that Jim Kelly never dreamed of.
There is no doubt that Josh Allen’s skillset is far superior to Jim Kelly’s.
However, Jim Kelly retired from the Bills in 1996 and Josh Allen’s Bills rookie campaign was 2018. In those 22 years there have been advances in technology, training and nutrition that all current NFL quarterbacks have enjoyed the fruits of.
Josh Allen is on pace to shatter Jim Kelly’s Bills passing yards (35,467) and passing touchdowns (237) marks. Allen needs only 12,764 passing yards and 70 passing touchdowns to surpass Kelly and this could very well happen in three to four seasons.
However, Jim Kelly had an atypical NFL career. He missed the 1983, 1984 and 1985 seasons—the first three of his career due to playing in the USFL so his career numbers are skewed. Kelly could have easily had an additional 10,000 yards and 75 touchdown passes had he played these seasons with the Bills.
Another big factor that one needs to consider in the Bills QB GOAT conversation is the weapons and protection that each quarterback was given.
It’s no coincidence that Josh Allen’s career took a giant step forward in 2020 when the Bills traded for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs. But other than Diggs, the Bills have had mediocre at best talent for Josh Allen. And except for the 2023 season, the Bills offensive line has been average at best.
Jim Kelly already had Hall of Fame wide receiver, Andre Reed when he came into the league in 1986. Two years later, he was given another HOF’er, Thurman Thomas and then HOF’er, James Lofton in 1989. Kelly also played behind one the most consistent offensive lines in NFL history with the likes of Kent Hull, Howard Ballard, Jim Ritcher and Will Wolford.
Yes, the NFL was different in the 1980’s and 1990’s than it is today. The quarterbacks are much more protected now and pass catchers are given more liberties as well.
Keeping this in mind, the most objective way to compare Jim Kelly and Josh Allen statistically is to assess where they rank amongst their quarterback peers in the era that they played—not merely comparing statistics straight up.
This graphic shows Jim Kelly’s and Josh Allen’s rankings year by year in Yards Per Game, Touchdown Percentage, Interception Percentage and QB Rating.
Neither quarterback’s rankings amongst their peers stand out as being superior to the other.
In the Super Bowl years, Jim Kelly was among the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He finished second in MVP voting and was First-Team All-Pro in 1991. Kelly went to five Pro Bowls in six seasons from 1987-1992—back when a Pro Bowl nod meant something.
Josh Allen’s first two seasons were nothing spectacular, but starting in 2020, he turned a corner and is now regarded as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. Like Jim Kelly, Josh Allen finished second in MVP voting in 2020 and was selected to the Pro Bowl twice.
One negative similarity between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly is their knack for throwing interceptions. Allen finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in five of his six seasons. Kelly finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in eight of his eleven seasons in the league.
There are two major differences between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly that likely gives Allen the Bills QB GOAT nod over Kelly.
First is Josh Allen’s rushing ability.
In five of his six seasons in the league, Josh Allen finished top-50 in the league in rushing yards per game and he’s been top-25 in the league in rushing touchdowns every season of his career (he was top 10 twice). Allen has carried his team on his back year after year.
Jim Kelly was your typical immobile ‘80’s and ‘90’s quarterback. He rushed for seven career touchdowns. Josh Allen doubled that LAST SEASON.
The second major difference that pushes Josh Allen past Jim Kelly is Allen’s clutch playoff performances.
In 17 career playoff games, Jim Kelly had a QB Rating of 72.3, had 21 combined touchdowns and 28 interceptions. You might be saying to yourself, “Yes, but Jim Kelly led his team to four Super Bowls.” Well, as mentioned earlier—Kelly had a lot of help, especially from a guy named Thurman Thomas who averaged 74 rush yards per game with 20 touchdowns in 18 career playoff games with Jim Kelly under center.
Josh Allen has played in 10 career playoff games. His QB Rating is 100.0 with 26 combined touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Have the Bills gotten to a Super Bowl? No—but don’t put that on Josh Allen. Except for one game where Gabe Davis shined against the Chiefs with four receiving touchdowns, Josh Allen put his Bills team on his back and willed them to victory with no other stand-out performances from any other offensive player.
Jim Kelly is in the Hall of Fame and he 100% deserves it. He’s known for his toughness and resiliency. Kelly had some incredible seasons with the Bills and they would not have made the Super Bowl runs that they made without him. However, if you look at all the factors—factors that make a quarterback great, Josh Allen has to get the nod for the Bills GOAT.
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