When the NFL free agency bell tolls in less than a month, Bills General Manager, Brandon Beane and his staff will have some crucial decisions to make.
The 2024 NFL league year begins on Wednesday, March 13th. At this point, the Bills will officially be nearly $57 Million over the Salary Cap according to Spotrac.
Yes, contract renegotiations will be done to clear cap space just like in years past; but the bottom line is that the Bills must get younger and cheaper beginning in 2024.
Just like in 2023, Brandon Beane likely will not make any “splash” free agent signings with his cap dollars being severely limited—and it’s likely most 2024 Bills free agents will not be back unless they’re willing to give the Bills a “hometown discount.”
Here is a list of players who are under contract in 2024 and a list of those who will enter free agency. This graphic includes those players under contract who have a good chance of being cut and those free agents who may return if the price is right.
As mentioned earlier, the Bills need to get younger and cheaper this offseason. The most efficient way to do this is through the draft. And as it stands today, the Bills have 10 total draft picks this April with 7 of those picks on day three of the draft (4ththrough 7th rounds).
Brandon Beane and company have found some gems on the third day of the draft including Khalil Shakir (5th round), Christian Benford (6th round), Gabe Davis (4th round), Dane Jackson (7th round) and Taron Johnson (4th round) and they’ll need to find a couple more in 2024.
Here is a mock draft that would make the most sense for the Bills this April and fill some positional needs in 2024.
Round 1 (28th overall) Safety, Tyler Nubin
The days of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are likely over. If either of them returns, it’ll be Poyer as he is still under contract. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have always had a solid secondary and getting younger in that position is a necessity this offseason.
Tyler Nubin’s size, run stopping ability and projected NFL instincts would be a welcome sight for new defensive coordinator, Bobby Babich and would be a great addition to a safety position who currently only has Poyer and Damar Hamlin under contract.
Round 2 (60th overall) Defensive Line, Kris Jenkins
Another depleted position for the Bills is defensive line. The Bills would love to have DaQuan Jones back on a cap-friendly deal in 2024, but that likely won’t be in the cards. Currently, the only Bills defensive lineman under contract is Ed Oliver.
Though he still needs to develop his pass rushing arsenal, Kris Jenkins has the strength to become a solid run-gap stopper and would be a strong candidate to start week 1 for the Bills at DL opposite Oliver.
Round 3 (99th overall) Wide Receiver, Jacob Cowing
After Stefon Diggs, the Bills don’t have a legitimate #2 wide receiver, even if they re-sign Gabe Davis. Khalil Shakir has cemented himself into the Bills slot receiver and Justin Shorter may be a #5 WR at best.
Although the Bills may draft a receiver earlier than the third round, there is value in drafting Jacob Cowing with the 99th overall pick.
Cowing’s incredible body control combined with his breakaway speed could spell doom for NFL defenses who will already have to deal with Diggs, Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in the Bills 2024 offense.
Round 4 (129th overall) Running Back, Braelon Allen
James Cook will continue to improve in his third season with the Bills. But after him, there likely will be no one. The Bills will likely sign a discounted free agent running back but will need to find someone to compliment James Cook in future years.
Braelon Allen not only has the frame (listed at 245 pounds) but has excellent footwork. He is also projected to be a good pass blocker—something that the Bills valued in Latavius Murray and will be looking for in 2024.
Round 5 (159th overall) Wide Receiver, Isaiah Williams
The Bills will be looking for depth at the wide receiver position and will likely draft multiple wide receivers in 2024.
Isaiah Williams is a sure-handed receiver who can get yards after the catch.
Round 5 (162nd overall) Center, Drake Nugent
Mitch Morse wants to be back with the Bills in 2024. He’ll likely have to negotiate his salary. The Bills have Ryan Bates waiting in the wings if Morse doesn’t return but will need to draft a replacement sometime soon.
Round 6 (197th overall) EDGE, Brennan Jackson
With Greg Rousseau, unproven Kingsley Jonathan and an aging, inconsistent Von Miller the only three EDGE rushers under contract; the Bills will likely look for a free agent defensive end and pick one up in the draft—and it may be with a day one or two pick.
Round 6 (202nd overall) Tackle, Nathan Thomas
Although the Bills are deep in the tackle position, this late in the draft they may be looking for the best available player to add depth and get younger.
Round 6 (206th overall) Linebacker, Ty’Ron Hopper
When healthy, the linebacker position may be the most talented position on the Bills roster. It never hurts to add depth.
Round 7 (246th overall) Quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa
The Bills haven’t drafted a quarterback since Jake Fromm in 2020. At some point they’ll need to get cheaper at the quarterback position instead of bringing in one-and-done backups to Josh Allen.
