Bills at Bears Week 16 preview and predictions

The 11-3 Bills prepare to take on the 3-11 Bears in Chicago on Christmas Eve

The Bills face yet another crucial game in Week 16. A win would mean that they would officially clinch the AFC East, and also their goal of ending the regular season as the AFC’s No. 1 seed would remain alive and well. 

The Bears have lost seven games in a row, with their last win coming against the Patriots on October 24, while the Bills have won their last five contests. Still, the Bills can’t overlook the Bears, especially with a unique quarterback talent like Justin Fields who can make a big play at any moment. The Bears like to run the football, which may play into their favor if heavy winds roll through on Saturday.

Weather implications

The Bills traveled to Chicago on Thursday to stay ahead of the blizzard that is ripping through Western New York currently, but they should be facing some harsh weather in Chicago on Saturday, too. Right now, the temperature at kickoff is predicted to be 8 degrees, but with wind gusts up to 40 mph, the real feel will be below zero.

Bills-Bears by the numbers

Last week, Miami ran for 188 yards against the Bills as Buffalo struggled to contain the run and struggled to tackle. A major focus for the Bills on Saturday will be stopping Chicago’s ground game. The Bears have the league’s best rushing attack this year, averaging 186.9 yards per game, led by QB Justin Fields (1,000 yards rushing) and RB David Montgomery (649 rushing yards). They’ll also be activating RB Khalil Herbert (643 yards in 10 games) from IR for the game. Through the air, Chicago has the league’s worst passing attack, averaging just 137.1 yards per game. The Bears have also allowed the fourth-most sacks to opposing teams (48).

On defense, the Bears give up the 30th most points per game (25.6) and they have the league’s worst third down defense, allowing a conversion on 49.4% of tries. They are ranked 15th against the pass and 27th against the run. The Bills will look to take advantage of the Bears lackluster defense, as Buffalo’s offense ranks fourth in the NFL in points per game (27.5) and second in 3rd down percentage (49.4%). And, the Bills are top 8 in both rushing and passing ypg.

Matchups to watch

Justin Fields vs. Leslie Frazier’s defense: It would be hard to single out just one Bills player to match up with Justin Fields because it will take a total team effort. A lot of the stress will be put on Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano in the middle of the field, and both of them will probably see some time spying Fields. Edge defenders Greg Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, and AJ Epenesa will be tasked with keeping contain on the outside. And, the Bills secondary will have to make sure to finish tackles and limit what Fields can do as a runner. One missed tackle and, with his size and speed, he can make you pay with a touchdown. The Bills have been blitzing more without Von Miller, and that may be worth trying more of against the Bears.

Stefon Diggs vs Kyler Gordon: The Bears will be without their best two cornerbacks in this one as Jaylon Johsnon and Kindle Vildor recently landed on IR. This means that rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon will have the assignment of going up against Stefon Diggs. In his last two games combined, Diggs has posted 8 catches for 97 yards, which is a statline you would usually see from him in one game. The weather may not be ideal, but the Bills have shown that they will continue to throw the ball and operate their normal offense in any weather. You know that Diggs is looking to bounce back, and he has a great matchup. Gordon is ranked 106 out of 118 at the cornerback position by PFF, with his best ability being his run defense and tackling (which is why some believed McDermott and Beane could have been eyeing him in April’s draft). But, his 47.4 pass coverage grade is among the worst in the NFL. Diggs has a chance to get back in rhythm in this spot.

Injury report

The Bears are ravaged with injuries at this point. Their offense is down their top receiving options in Claypool and St. Brown, and they are also looking like they will be without two of their best offensive lineman. And, on defense they will be without their top two cornerbacks who both just landed on IR.

Bears: WR Chase Claypool (Doubtful); OL Teven Jenkins (Doubtful); CB Jaylen Johnson (OUT – IR); CB Kindle Vildor (OUT – IR); WR Equanimeous St. Brown (OUT); TE Trevon Wesco (OUT); OL Cody Whitehair (Doubtful).

The Bills are pretty healthy for a Week 16 game, aside from their guys on IR like Von Miller, Micah Hyde, Jamison Crowder, etc. On Saturday they will be without Boogie Basham and center Mitch Morse, meaning Ryan Bates will most likely play center.

Bills: DE Boogie Basham (OUT); C Mitch Morse (OUT); DT Ed Oliver (Questionable); DT Jordan Phillips (Questionable).

Predictions

Below, find score predictions from our writers at Built in Buffalo.

Matt Homan: On paper, this game should be a cakewalk for the Bills who play a Bears team that has a laundry list of injuries and an offense and defense that rank in the bottom third of the league in total yards. The main concern for the Bills in this matchup will be the weather in Chicago. Look for the Bills offense to get a running game going early, control the clock and get the hell out of Dodge. Containing Fields is the biggest challenge the Bills will face. The only problem is that the Bears have an injury-ravaged receiving corps and will predictably run a majority of the game. Bills roll in the blistering cold. Prediction: Bills 24, Bears 9.

Daniel Adams: The Bills are prepared to take on the speedy Justin Fields. Josh Allen had a great game against the Miami Dolphins and I believe that performance will carry over to this game against the Bears. Dawson Knox will have another good week and score a touchdown and James Cook will be the leading back. Stefon Diggs will get back on track this week and help out Josh Allen big time. Buffalo has been bad at stopping the run recently and Fields and the running backs will be pounding the rock. The Bills defense will force at least one turnover and the secondary will limit their passing. I believe the Bears won’t reach 20 points. The Bills will beat the Bears and clinch the AFC East. Prediction: Bills 27, Bears 17.

Kam Towle: The Bears are a banged up team with no real weapons on offense in the passing game, and they have holes on defense now, too. The only way I see the Bears winning this one is if the windy weather and game script follows suit of last year’s “wind game” against New England. The Bills have had plenty of experience in bad weather games recently, and they should be able to come away with the win again. On offense, I see Stefon Diggs scoring a touchdown in a bounce back game and I see Allen using his arm even in the windy weather, as well as his legs. Fields will make his plays, but just as they have done with Lamar Jackson in the past, they will limit him from making the big, game-changing plays. Prediction: Bills 23, Bears 12.