Bills Breakdown: Buffalo seeking season sweep of Miami -

The Buffalo Bills handled the Miami Dolphins with ease in Week 2, and they’ll look to do it again this Sunday. Before the season, this was expected to be a highly-anticipated game. But now that the Bills have a four-game lead over the Dolphins, it doesn’t hold as much weight in terms of division implications.

With the Dolphins in a tough position in the standings, they’ll need this win. While Buffalo doesn’t NEED the win as much as Miami, they’re still going to look to close the door even more on the Dolphins’ playoff chances. Let’s take a look at the storylines heading into Sunday.

Injury report

Bills Key Injuries:

QB Josh Allen (Left Hand) – No Designation (Full practice)
OT Alec Anderson (Personal) – No Designation (Full practice)
CB Christian Benford (Wrist) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
LB Terrel Bernard (Pectoral) – No Designation (Full practice)
OT Spencer Brown (Wrist) – No Designation (Full practice)
DB Brandon Codrington (Hip) – No Designation (Full practice)
WR Amari Cooper (Wrist) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
FB Reggie Gilliam (Hamstring) – OUT
S Damar Hamlin (Ankle) – No Designation (Full practice)
WR Mack Hollins (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
CB Taron Johnson (Forearm) – No Designation (Full practice)
DT DaQuan Jones (Foot) – No Designation (Full practice)
TE Dalton Kincaid (Collarbone) – No Designation (Full practice)
TE Dawson Knox (Ankle) – No Designation (Full practice)
TE Quintin Morris (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
S Taylor Rapp (Foot) – No Designation (Full practice)
DE Dawuane Smoot (Groin) – No Designation (Full practice)
WR Curtis Samuel (Pectoral) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
LB Dorian Williams (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)

Dolphins Key Injuries:

OT Terron Armstead (Rest/Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
DT Calais Campbell (Rest) – No Designation
CB Storm Duck (Ankle) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
TE Julian Hill (Shoulder) – OUT
S Jevon Holland (Hand/Knee) – DOUBTFUL
WR Tyreek Hill (Rest/Foot) – No Designation (Full practice)
CB Kader Kohou (Neck) – OUT
Emmanuel Ogbah (Bicep/Illness) – No Designation (Full practice)
S Jordan Poyer (Rest) – No Designation
DT Zach Sieler (Eye) – OUT
LB Jordyn Brooks (Hamstring/Wrist) – No Designation (Full practice)
WR River Cracraft (Shoulder) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
DT Benito Jones (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
LB Tyus Bowser (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
OL Robert Jones (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
TE Jonnu Smith (Finger) – No Designation (Full practice)
FB Alec Ingold (Calf) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited practice)
WR D’Wayne Eskridge (Not Specified) – No Designation (Did not practice)

Let James Cook

The Bills have changed their offensive identity this year, opting for more of a run-heavy offense. They’re eighth in the NFL in run rate at 48.9%, and it’s for a good reason. They’re fifth in the NFL in EPA/Rush at +0.08. The leader of the backfield has been James Cook, and I expect them to lean on the run game again against the Dolphins. He ran for 78 yards on 11 carries in the Week 2 win in Miami for a ridiculous 7.1 yards per carry. The Dolphins are middle-of-the-pack against the run so the Bills should have no problem on the ground with either James Cook or Ray Davis.

The passing game has been where the Dolphins defense has excelled, ranking fifth in the NFL. Part of that could be due to the fact that other teams have been able to get the lead and run the ball for a large portion of the game. One defender I expect the Bills to test on Sunday is cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Opposing quarterbacks have a 112.2 passer rating when targeting Ramsey this season. That’s the highest he’s allowed in his career. With Amari Cooper in Buffalo and rookie Keon Coleman getting more comfortable by the week, Ramsey could have his hands full again this week.

The key to the game for the Bills offense will, once again, be taking care of the ball. They’ve done well in that regard so far this year, and if they do it this week, they should have no problem putting points on the board. My offensive MVP this week is none other than part-owner of the Miami Dolphins, Josh Allen.

Babich continues excellent start

Buffalo’s defense has battled through injuries a lot this season. Something they’ve grown accustomed to over the past few years. However, despite the injuries, they still rank sixth in the NFL in points per game. The pass rush has slowly been coming together and, with Von Miller coming back, it will only improve. One pass rusher that hasn’t been talked about enough is Gregory Rousseau. Rousseau has generated a team-high 32 pressures on 226 pass rushes, tying him for 10th in the NFL.

A big part of the Bills’ defensive success is the secondary allowing just 5.6 yards per pass play. The secondary should have another great game this week as Tua Tagovailoa will look to get the ball out quickly downfield. The Buffalo defense has allowed 5.0 yards per attempt on quick downfield passes this season, fifth in the NFL. Sean McDermott and company seem to have the Dolphins number as they’ll look for their fifth straight win over the Dolphins.

The key for the Bills defense will be making sure they don’t give up explosive plays. The Dolphins have some great playmakers that will burn them if given the chance. My defensive MVP for this game might come as a surprise, but I’m going with AJ Epenesa. He’s started to play better the past few weeks, and I expect him to get after Tua again this week.

Gameday expectation

Last game versus the Dolphins didn’t go as expected, in a good way. This week I expect it to be a little bit closer as the Dolphins look to avoid embarrassment at the hands of their division rival Bills. While I expect it to be closer, the Bills should still handle business at home as they’re one of the best teams when playing in front of their home crowd. The Bills are six-point favorites over the Dolphins this week with the over/under set at 49.5 total points. I’m predicting a 31-20 Bills victory to complete the season sweep of the fish from Florida.