Bills Breakdown: Previewing divisional tilt against Dolphins

The Bills-Dolphins rivalry has ramped up over the past few years, but it has still gone the Bills way. Since Josh Allen has arrived in Buffalo, they have gone 10-2 against Miami and have only lost one game in Miami since 2019.

It’s a revenge game for former Bills Safety Jordan Poyer, so you know the Dolphins will want to win it for him. Let’s take a look at the key storylines for the game as they get ready to play in Josh Allen’s second home.

Injury report

Bills Key Injuries:

• QB Josh Allen (Left Hand) – No Designation (Full practice)
• CB Taron Johnson (Forearm) – OUT
• RB Ty Johnson (Knee) – No Designation (Limited practice)
• TE Quintin Morris (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
• DE Dawuane Smoot (Toe) – OUT
• DE Javon Solomon (Oblique) – DOUBTFUL
• QB Mitchell Trubisky (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)

Dolphins Key Injuries:

• RB De’Von Achane (Ankle) – Questionable
• RB Raheem Mostert (Chest) – OUT
• WR Malik Washington (Quadricep) – OUT
• OG Liam Eichenberg (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
• OLB Jaelen Phillips (Achilles) – No Designation (Limited practice)
• CB Jalen Ramsey (Hamstring) – No Designation (Full practice)
• ILB David Long (Finger) – No Designation (Full practice)
• DB Elijah Campbell (Achilles) – Questionable

Bills defense has its hands full

It was no secret that the Bills defense struggled last week to start the game. However, if it wasn’t for a kickoff return for a touchdown, the Bills would’ve allowed just three points in the second half. It was a good bounce-back half from a defense that looked lost in the first half. Though, they can’t do the same against a high-flying offense like the Dolphins.

While they only put up 20 points against the Jaguars a week ago, Miami can put up points in a hurry, as evident from their previous season. They have speedsters to watch in wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle that will force the Bills to watch for the big play. Historically, the Bills have done an excellent job against the two wideouts. Tyreek Hill has had his frustrations as he has not had more than 82 yards in any of the five games he’s played against the Bills, and Jaylen Waddle has only had more than four receptions against Buffalo once in six career games.

While the Dolphins are a great big play team, the Bills have been able to slow them down historically. This season is off to a similar start as they rank #2 in deep passing. The pass rush should help, as we’ll see if Greg Rousseau can build off of his three-sack performance against the Cardinals a week ago. The biggest question for the defense will be if they can cover the middle of the field. Last season, on plays in the middle of the field without Matt Milano, they allowed 7.2 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, and didn’t force an interception. Players like Cam Lewis and Dorian Williams will have to step up for Buffalo to be successful.

Keep the offense balanced

The Buffalo offense looked solid last week as they put up 34 points on the Cardinals after a slow start. They relied on quick passes to help move the ball as Josh Allen went 11/13 for 112 yards and two touchdowns when getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds. Expect James Cook to be involved in the passing game as he’s coming off a 21.4% target share. The quick game will be key for the Bills offense. They’re hoping it will help open up the run game.

James Cook averaged 3.7 yards per rush versus the Cardinals. Without a doubt, that is a number he is not happy with. He could build on that number as the Dolphins allowed 4.9 yards per rush versus the Jaguars a week ago. Watch out for the Bills to run between the tackles, as they found a lot of success there last season. James Cook had the second-best yards per carry (5.0) between the tackles a year ago, and the Dolphins are now without defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who signed with the Las Vegas Raiders this past offseason.

Quick passing and the run game will be key for the Bills to have success tonight. Last week the Bills passed 23 times compared 33 runs. I’d expect them to be a little bit more balanced this week. The offense should be able to move the ball and find the endzone. Expect Dalton Kincaid and Curtis Samuel to be involved early and often in the quick game.

Gameday expectations

Historically, this game should be a Bills win. However, it’s Week 2 and this Bills team is still finding their new identity. The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 points and the expected point total is 48.5. These teams have been the top two AFC East teams for the last few seasons for a reason. Everything points to this being a close game and I expect it to be as well. I’m going with a 38-37 Bills victory.