Bills Breakdown: Jaguars welcomed as Davis, Morse seek revenge -

Last week, the Buffalo Bills played a team they regularly defeat in the Miami Dolphins. This week is a little bit different as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to town. They’ve only played twice since 2021, and both of those games went the Jaguars way with ugly performances by the Bills.

It’s a reunion as former Bills center Mitch Morse and wide receiver Gabe Davis return, this time as the enemy. Both were impactful players for the Bills during the last four seasons. Davis is remembered, most notably, for his four-touchdown performance in the infamous “13 seconds” game, and Morse was the leader of the offensive line that helped protect Josh Allen. While Bills Mafia will most likely give them some love Monday night, they’ll hope to send them back to Jacksonville with a loss.

Injury report

Bills Key Injuries:

QB Josh Allen (Left Hand) – No Designation (Full practice)
LB Terrel Bernard (Pectoral) – OUT
CB Taron Johnson (Forearm) – OUT
RB Ty Johnson (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
TE Quintin Morris (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
DE Dawuane Smoot (Toe) – No Designation (Full practice)
DE Javon Solomon (Oblique) – No Designation (Full practice)
DE Casey Toohill (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
QB Mitchell Trubisky (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)

Jaguars Key Injuries:

TE Evan Engram (Hamstring) – OUT
RB Tank Bigsby (Shoulder) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
DB Darnell Savage (Quadricep) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
OT Cam Robinson (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
WR Tim Jones (Foot) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)

Keep it rolling

The Bills offense has started the season strong so far and they look to continue their success against a banged-up Jaguars defense. It’s a defense that utilizes a heavy dose of man coverage, 52.6% on opposing dropbacks. That’s the highest rate in the NFL. That should bode well for the Bills’ weapons such as Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Shakir has been efficient when the ball is thrown his way as he’s caught 47 of his 53 targets since 2023, the highest catch rate among any wide receiver over that span. If the Bills can get open, they should have no problem moving the ball through the air.

The passing game hasn’t had a hot start this year, but that’s because it hasn’t had to, thanks to the run game. James Cook has had a great start to the season as he comes off a three-touchdown performance against the Dolphins. This has been, in large part, due to the success the Bills have had running inside the tackles. Cook has run inside the tackles on 57% of his rush attempts for 104 yards (6th-most in NFL) and +40 yards over expected (3rd-most in NFL). According to NFL Pro, the success inside the tackles should continue as the Jaguars rank 25th in that department.

Looking at the numbers, the Buffalo offense should have no problem moving the ball and finding the end zone against Jacksonville. With injuries to the Jaguars defense, it will make it tough for Doug Pederson to get his guys going against Joe Brady’s offense. As long as Allen and the Bills take care of the ball, they should have no trouble putting up 30+ points.

Next man up

It’s no secret the Bills have had a tough start to the year when it comes to defensive injuries. With Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, and Taron Johnson all going down, others have had to step up. One player that has stepped up their game is Von Miller. He had one sack and four pressures last week and has been one of the top pass rushers regarding win rate this season. He’ll have a great opportunity to add to his sack total again this week as Trevor Lawrence has been sacked at the highest rate in the NFL on 11.5% of his dropbacks this season. The Bills shouldn’t have to bring the blitz too much to generate pressure.

The biggest concern for the Bills will be their run defense. While the numbers haven’t been bad for their run defense, it’s still something to keep an eye on. Baylon Spector and Dorian Williams will need to step up as the injury to Bernard leaves them thin with experience at the position. Jaguars’ running back Travis Etienne has had two touchdowns in two games so far this season and is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Stopping Etienne will be a big test for the Bills’ defense, and they’ll need DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver to stuff up the middle.

The Jaguars have been a big-play offense so far, and the Bills have excelled at preventing big plays. One will have to give Monday night.

Gameday expectations

If the Jaguars can move the ball, this game could become a shootout. We have yet to see the Bills in a shootout this season but, as I say almost every week, they have number 17 leading them. The Bills are a 5.5-point favorites at home with the over-under at 45.5 points total in the game. I don’t expect this game to come down to the wire, so I’m going with a 34-20 Bills victory over the Jaguars.