The Bills host the Chargers on Sunday as a touchdown favorite coming off extra rest after their Week 2 win over Detroit, and the only real debate is whether Buffalo turns a defensive get-right game into a blowout or lets a desperate 0-2 team hang around. On today’s episode of 1st and 5, Dave and Greg previewed the matchup with Alex Insdorf, host of the Chargers podcast Bolt Breakdowns, including:
- The view from the Chargers side of the matchup
- What’s gone wrong for the 0-2 Chargers
- Where the Chargers could actually give Buffalo trouble
- Whether DJ Moore and Keon Coleman play, and who fills in if not
- Why Josh Allen’s deep-ball numbers look different this year
- The one matchup that swings the game
How Bad Are the Chargers, Really?
Straight from the Chargers side, it’s bad enough that Alex Insdorf isn’t sure the players’ own families are picking them. Los Angeles is 0-2 with double-digit losses to the Cardinals and Raiders, and most of the damage is self-inflicted. Six fumbles in a single game, the most by any team since 1987, and 15 penalties over the first two weeks, a lot of them pre-snap false starts as the roster learns a new offense.
Justin Herbert isn’t the problem, but he hasn’t been the solution either. He’s playing behind shaky protection and running a new timing-based system he’s still adjusting to after years of doing it differently, and his receivers keep dropping catchable balls. Alex’s read is that the Chargers thought they were further along in the install than they are, and they’re paying for it now.
A lot of that traces back to Jim Harbaugh. Los Angeles scaled back its team reps in the offseason to avoid injuries, and Alex thinks it left them unprepared to open the year. He isn’t putting Harbaugh on the hot seat yet, but he was clear that a blowout here, followed by another against Seattle, gets those conversations going in a hurry.
Where the Chargers Could Actually Hurt Buffalo
The Chargers aren’t a walkover, and Alex laid out where Los Angeles is dangerous. The best matchup for the Chargers is Ladd McConkey against a shaky Bills secondary. McConkey has been the one thing working in the passing game, and he finds the soft spots in zone, though a broken rib puts a real cap on how much he can do. Behind him, the name to watch is Oronde Gadsden II, now the top TE after injuries cleared the room, a receiving threat coming off a big rookie year that Alex thinks nobody outside Los Angeles is talking about.
The Chargers can play some defense too. They stop the run about as well as any team in the league, and Teair Tart has been their best player on film, a problem Alex expects to line up over Connor McGovern and test the middle of the Bills’ line. The pass rush is the soft spot. Los Angeles has faced Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins so far, nobody close to Allen’s mobility, and getting the edge rushers home is what Alex is watching for most.
The path to points, in Alex’s view, is to simplify. The Chargers have run pre-snap motion on roughly three-quarters of their plays, and it’s caused snap issues and fumbles, so the fix is to cut it down, get Herbert quick throws on screens and in the flat to pull the Bills’ defense in, then take the occasional deep shot at that secondary. The catch is the math. If Allen puts them down two or three scores, the run game disappears and so does any comeback.
Can the Offense Take a Punch at Receiver?
The one thing that could keep this close is Buffalo’s own health at receiver. DJ Moore was limited at practice all week, and Keon Coleman missed practice too with an ankle he rolled against Detroit. That thins the room fast, with Skyler Bell, who has no film out on him yet, and Greg Dortch, down to his last practice-squad elevation, next in line. The smart money is on sitting Moore rather than risking a setback in a game Buffalo should win anyway.
Even short-handed, the offense looks different, and the numbers say why. Allen leads the league on throws of ten-plus air yards, four touchdowns against five incompletions, a real philosophy change built on the weapons around him, a healthy Dalton Kincaid and a DJ Moore who pulls coverage over when he plays.
The other piece is Allen himself, moving defenders before the snap and looking them off, the way he did on the Josh Palmer touchdown against Detroit that Kurt Warner said doesn’t happen ninety-nine times out of a hundred.
There’s a revenge angle too. Palmer faces his old team, and he’s the kind of secondary target who can punish a coverage that hasn’t been sharp. He’s found the end zone in both games, so an anytime touchdown from him is the petty bet of the week, and Alex agreed he’s exactly the type of receiver the Chargers have let beat them.
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Is There a Trap Here?
There’s a classic trap-game setup on paper. The Bills are a touchdown favorite, have had extra rest, and face the reigning division champion Patriots next week. The wrinkle is that nobody knows how Joe Brady handles a spot like this, because it’s a new staff with no track record on let-down games. The bet is that Brady stays aggressive and treats it like a must-win, since stacking wins early is how a team chases a one seed.
The other thing to expect is the Chargers throwing something they haven’t shown yet. A desperate 0-2 team tends to pull a gadget or a new wrinkle to steal an early score, so one shot like that early wouldn’t be a surprise, and it wouldn’t mean much if it lands.
Who’s Going to Win?
Nobody in the room picked the upset, the guest included.
Alex, Bills 34-24. Los Angeles has a better day on offense but still can’t go drive for drive with Allen.
Greg, Bills 33-20. Featuring a Tyler Bass missed extra point and a Harbaugh field goal on a down he should’ve gone for.
Dave, Bills 34-21. He’s expecting more of a fight than the national media does.
The player-of-the-game picks split. Greg took James Cook, betting that a game with the receivers banged up is exactly when Cook controls the clock and catches a few out of the backfield. Dave took Dalton Kincaid, riding the hot hand.
What Actually Decides This Game?
For all the Chargers’ problems, it comes back to one matchup: Buffalo’s defensive line against a banged-up Los Angeles front. If the Bills get pressure on Herbert, the thin Chargers receiver group won’t beat even a shaky Bills secondary. If Herbert gets time, he’s good enough to make it a game, so the front has to win it.
Alex sees the same fault line from his side. The pass rush is his biggest worry. The interior of the Chargers’ line is banged up, and they’re down to their third-choice left guard. That’s the matchup Greg Rousseau and Deone Walker should feast on, and it’s why the simplest read is the right one. If Buffalo keeps doing what it’s done for two weeks and the front does its job, the Chargers probably can’t hang.
What’s Your Take?
Do the Bills put this away early, or does a desperate Chargers team make Buffalo sweat one it’s supposed to win?
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