With six seasons under his belt, Josh Allen’s stock has risen to a point that many consider him the greatest Bills quarterback of all time, challenging the formerly undisputed top QB, Jim Kelly.

But how does one assess greatness amongst two quarterbacks from two different eras?  And how would one decipher what attributes make one quarterback better than another.

Recently, I took a deep-dive into both Jim Kelly and Josh Allen’s career.  Through looking at both quarterbacks’ statistics, teammates and clutch performances; I hope to settle the debate once and for all.

Many base their opinions on their “eye test”—Josh Allen has a stronger arm, bigger frame, can run faster and do things that Jim Kelly never dreamed of.

There is no doubt that Josh Allen’s skillset is far superior to Jim Kelly’s. 

However, Jim Kelly retired from the Bills in 1996 and Josh Allen’s Bills rookie campaign was 2018.  In those 22 years there have been advances in technology, training and nutrition that all current NFL quarterbacks have enjoyed the fruits of.

Josh Allen is on pace to shatter Jim Kelly’s Bills passing yards (35,467) and passing touchdowns (237) marks.  Allen needs only 12,764 passing yards and 70 passing touchdowns to surpass Kelly and this could very well happen in three to four seasons.

However, Jim Kelly had an atypical NFL career.  He missed the 1983, 1984 and 1985 seasons—the first three of his career due to playing in the USFL so his career numbers are skewed.  Kelly could have easily had an additional 10,000 yards and 75 touchdown passes had he played these seasons with the Bills.

Another big factor that one needs to consider in the Bills QB GOAT conversation is the weapons and protection that each quarterback was given.

It’s no coincidence that Josh Allen’s career took a giant step forward in 2020 when the Bills traded for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs.  But other than Diggs, the Bills have had mediocre at best talent for Josh Allen.  And except for the 2023 season, the Bills offensive line has been average at best.

Jim Kelly already had Hall of Fame wide receiver, Andre Reed when he came into the league in 1986.  Two years later, he was given another HOF’er, Thurman Thomas and then HOF’er, James Lofton in 1989.  Kelly also played behind one the most consistent offensive lines in NFL history with the likes of Kent Hull, Howard Ballard, Jim Ritcher and Will Wolford.

Yes, the NFL was different in the 1980’s and 1990’s than it is today.  The quarterbacks are much more protected now and pass catchers are given more liberties as well. 

Keeping this in mind, the most objective way to compare Jim Kelly and Josh Allen statistically is to assess where they rank amongst their quarterback peers in the era that they played—not merely comparing statistics straight up.

This graphic shows Jim Kelly’s and Josh Allen’s rankings year by year in Yards Per Game, Touchdown Percentage, Interception Percentage and QB Rating.

Neither quarterback’s rankings amongst their peers stand out as being superior to the other. 

In the Super Bowl years, Jim Kelly was among the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He finished second in MVP voting and was First-Team All-Pro in 1991.  Kelly went to five Pro Bowls in six seasons from 1987-1992—back when a Pro Bowl nod meant something.

Josh Allen’s first two seasons were nothing spectacular, but starting in 2020, he turned a corner and is now regarded as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.  Like Jim Kelly, Josh Allen finished second in MVP voting in 2020 and was selected to the Pro Bowl twice.

One negative similarity between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly is their knack for throwing interceptions.  Allen finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in five of his six seasons.  Kelly finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in eight of his eleven seasons in the league.

There are two major differences between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly that likely gives Allen the Bills QB GOAT nod over Kelly.

First is Josh Allen’s rushing ability.

In five of his six seasons in the league, Josh Allen finished top-50 in the league in rushing yards per game and he’s been top-25 in the league in rushing touchdowns every season of his career (he was top 10 twice).  Allen has carried his team on his back year after year.

Jim Kelly was your typical immobile ‘80’s and ‘90’s quarterback.  He rushed for seven career touchdowns.  Josh Allen doubled that LAST SEASON.

The second major difference that pushes Josh Allen past Jim Kelly is Allen’s clutch playoff performances.

In 17 career playoff games, Jim Kelly had a QB Rating of 72.3, had 21 combined touchdowns and 28 interceptions.  You might be saying to yourself, “Yes, but Jim Kelly led his team to four Super Bowls.”  Well, as mentioned earlier—Kelly had a lot of help, especially from a guy named Thurman Thomas who averaged 74 rush yards per game with 20 touchdowns in 18 career playoff games with Jim Kelly under center.

Josh Allen has played in 10 career playoff games.  His QB Rating is 100.0 with 26 combined touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  Have the Bills gotten to a Super Bowl?  No—but don’t put that on Josh Allen.  Except for one game where Gabe Davis shined against the Chiefs with four receiving touchdowns, Josh Allen put his Bills team on his back and willed them to victory with no other stand-out performances from any other offensive player.

Jim Kelly is in the Hall of Fame and he 100% deserves it.  He’s known for his toughness and resiliency.  Kelly had some incredible seasons with the Bills and they would not have made the Super Bowl runs that they made without him.  However, if you look at all the factors—factors that make a quarterback great, Josh Allen has to get the nod for the Bills GOAT.

The Buffalo Bills open their regular season against the Arizona Cardinals in only 95 days!  It may sound like a long way out, but once the summer months start rolling, Bill Mafia will primed and ready to rock Highmark Stadium before we know it.

We know what the core of the 2024 Bills squad will be, however we will likely see a veteran or two signed with the open cap space freed up with the June 1 cut of Tre White for depth.

However, it’s never to early (and it’s kinda fun) to take a look at which Bills players will be on the 53-man roster.

Here is a position-by-position preview of the 2024 Buffalo Bills 53-man roster:

Quarterback
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Josh Allen
2.  Mitch Trubisky

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:
Shane Buechele

Analysis:  This is the easiest position to predict.  It is unlikely that the Bills sign anyone to challenge Trubisky at QB2 and Buechele has been a solid practice squad quarterback for both the Chiefs and Bills.

Running Back
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  James Cook
2.  Ty Johnson
3.  Ray Davis

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:
Frank Gore Jr, Darrynton Evans

Analysis:  James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis are likely locks for the team unless Frank Gore Jr can make a run and then I’d imagine Ty Johnson would be the odd man out.

Fullback
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Reggie Gilliam

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:
None

Analysis:  No surprises here.  Gilliam is the only rostered fullback and the coaching staff values his special teams contributions. 

Wide Receiver
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Keon Coleman
2.  Khalil Shakir  
3.  Curtis Samuel
4.  Mack Hollins
5.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling
6.  Justin Shorter

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Chase Claypool, KJ Hamler, Andy Isabella, Xavier Johnson, Lawrence Keys, Bryan Thompson, Tyrell Shavers

Analysis:  Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins are locks. 

The Bills will roster either Marquez Valdez-Scantling OR Chase Claypool—not both.  This is because of both of their inabilities to play special teams.  MVS has more recent success and Chase Claypool, if he can keep his head straight, has more upside.  It’ll be interesting to see which makes the roster.

Tight End
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Dalton Kincaid
2.  Dawson Knox
3.  Quintin Morris

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Tre McKitty, Zach Davidson

Analysis:  The tight end position is straight forward.  The Bills coaching staff like Quintin Morris for his blocking ability and special teams play.

Offensive Line
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Dion Dawkins (LT)
2.  Connor McGovern (LG)
3.  Sedrick Van Pran Granger ( C )
4.  O’Cyrus Torrence (RG)
5.  Spencer Brown (RT)
6.  Ryan Van Demark (T)
7.  David Edwards (G)
8.  La’El Collins (T)
9.  Alec Anderson (G)

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Will Clapp, Tylan Grable, Travis Clayton, Keaton Bills, Gunner Britton, Mike Edwards, Kevin Jarvis, Richard Gouraige

Analysis:  The Bills starting offensive line will mirror 2023’s except for Sedrick Van Pran Granger. 

It will be interesting to see who will win out the backup OL roles.  David Edwards is a lock and may very well be the Bills starting left guard, pushing Connor McGovern to the center position.

Ryan Van Demark and Alec Anderson were feel-good stories last season, defying the odds and making the 53-man squad.  We’ll see if drafted rookie, Tylan Grable can push either of them for a roster spot.

Defensive End
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Greg Rousseau
2.  Von Miller
3.  AJ Epenesa
4.  Casey Toohill
5.  Javon Solomon

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Kingsley Jonathan, Dawuane Smoot, Kameron Cline, Rondell Bothroyd, David Ugwoegbu

Analysis:  Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, AJ Epenesa and Javon Solomon are locks for the 53-man.

The 5^th roster spot is hide open, however.  Veteran, Casey Toohill is the frontrunner heading at this point, but Dawuane Smoot and Kingsley Jonathan will also push to make the roster.

Defensive Line
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1. Ed Oliver
2.  Daquan Jones
3.  Austin Johnson
4.  Deshawn Williams
5.  Dewayne Carter

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Brandon Deen, Eli Ankou, Gable Steveson

Analysis:  At this point, the five defensive linemen who will likely make the team is cut and dry.  Veterans Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, Austin Johnson and Deshawn Williams along with rookie Dewayne Carter will be on the squad unless one of the lower-tier linemen make a training camp push.  

Linebacker
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:
1.  Matt Milano
2.  Terrel Bernard
3.  Dorian Williams
4.  Nicholas Morrow
5.  Baylon Spector
6.  Edefuan Ulofoshio

Projected to make Practice Squad for Cut:  Deion Jones, Joe Andreessen, Shayne Simon

Analysis:  Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Nicholas Morrow and rookie Edefuan Ulofoshio will make the 53-man roster.  Baylon Spector is on the inside looking out and will likely make the roster unless one of the remaining three make a strong training camp push.

Cornerback
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:
1.  Rasul Douglas
2.  Christian Benford
3.  Taron Johnson
4.  Kaiir Elam
5.  Daequan Hardy
6.  Ja’Marcus Ingram

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Keni-H Lovely, Kyron Brown, Te’Cory Couch

Analysis:  The only question mark on this position group is the CB6 spot.  Could Ja’Marcus Ingram finally make the roster after to years of practice squad play?

Safety
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:
1.  Taylor Rapp
2.  Mike Edwards
3.  Cole Bishop
4.  Cam Lewis

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Damar Hamlin, Kendall Williamson, Dee Delaney

Analysis:  The four safety roster spots are set.  At this point, it looks like Damar Hamlin will be on the outside looking in.

Special Teams
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:

Kicker:  Tyler Bass
Punter:  Sam Martin
LS:  Reid Ferguson

Now that the shock of trading Stefon Diggs has subsided for most Bills fans and General Manager, Brandon Beane has filled the offensive roster (for the most part), let’s look at what a Diggs-less Bills offense will look like in 2024.

Stefon Diggs was a premier wide receiver in the league during his four-year tenure in Buffalo.  He was among the league leaders in catches and receiving yards each year and came up with many big plays. 

It’s clear that Diggs was Josh Allen’s number one guy and it wasn’t even close.

However, down the stretch in 2024 after Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator, Diggs was invisible and his numbers reflected that of a mediocre receiver who’s effort might not have been what Bills fans were used to seeing.

In the Bills final nine games, including two playoff games, Stefon Diggs caught 34 passes on 58 targets (58.6% catch percentage) with 388 yards (43 yards per game) and only 1 touchdown.

Did he attract teams’ number one cornerbacks?  Yes.  But this is no different than any other point in his Bills career.

Combine his decreased production with his salary drain and his off the field burden to the team (cryptic Twitter posts, inconsistent Bills camp attendance); the Bills brass were ready to take Diggs out of the equation.

So what are the Bills going to do without Stefon Diggs in 2024?

First and foremost, the presumed need for Josh Allen to throw to Diggs is gone.  In other words, the Bills won’t have to keep one person happy by force-feeding him the football and a more team-oriented less-ego driven offense will be showcased in 2024.

Here is a percentage breakdown of where all of Josh Allen’s passes were targeted after Joe Brady took over starting in week 11.

Stefon Diggs 26.7%
Dalton Kincaid   18.1%
Khalil Shakir      12.8%
James Cook        12.4%
Gabriel Davis      8.5%
Trent Sherfield  5.3%
Dawson Knox     5.0%
Latavius Murray 4.6%
Ty Johnson         3.6%
Deonte Hardy    1.8%
Quintin Morris   0.1%
Andy Isabella     0.01%

If you add up the departed pass catchers, 46.9% of the intended targets will be gone in 2024. 

Exiting in 2024 are Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Latavius Murray and Deonte Hardy.

Returning from 2023 is wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook. 

The Bills added wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Chase Claypool via free agency and Keon Coleman through the draft.  They also provided a bigger running back to spell James Cook with Ray Davis.

With a full offseason for Joe Brady to scheme and a few new weapons added to his arsenal, anticipate the Bills to run more 12 personnel (two tight end sets) than in 2023 and even utilize the ground game more.

It’s interesting to note the difference in play calling with Joe Brady versus Ken Dorsey last season.  Ken Dorsey called passing plays 57.1% of the time and run plays 42.9% of the time.  While Brady called 52.6% running plays and 47.7% passing plays.

With this information, here is a breakdown of the anticipated touches for each offensive player for the Bills in 2024 with their current roster.  This is based off 1092 total offensive plays, which is the same amount the Bills ran in 2023:

Running Game
Joe Brady’s offense ran the ball nearly 53% of the time last season and this should continue in 2024.  I’d anticipate that the Bills run the ball a total of 649 times with the running attempts going to the following players:

James Cook        225 attempts
In 2023, James Cook was the Bills featured back and he excelled most of the season but began to decline a bit later in the season and in the playoffs.  This may have been because his workload was more than DOUBLE that of any season since his first year at Georgia in 2018.

I’d anticipate James Cook’s workload going down a bit.  He carried the ball 237 times in 2023 and I’m predicting 225 rushes this season.

Ray Davis            173 attempts
The Bills didn’t use a 4^th round draft pick on Ray Davis for him to ride the pine.  Unlike James Cook, his college workload was heavy and he carried the ball a lot.  Look for Ray Davis’s rush attempts to be slightly less than James Cooks and for him to be on the field often as he’s also an excellent pass catcher.

Although Sean McDermott has a history of being hesitant to give rookies playing time early in the season, Ray Davis will get the looks early and often.

Josh Allen           104 attempts
Remember when Bills Brass tried to contain Josh Allen and not allow him to freely run whenever he wanted last year?  Well, that didn’t work and once Joe Brady became the Bills new offensive coordinator, he gave Josh the keys to use his legs whenever he wanted—and the Bills went on a hot streak after that happened.

Look for Josh Allen’s rushing attempts to come down a bit in 2024 as Joe Brady has had an offseason to scheme up some plays to get other playmakers going. 

Ty Johnson         85 attempts
In five NFL seasons, Ty Johnson has had no more than 63 total rush attempts (2019 with Detroit). 

Look for Ty Johnson to spell James Cook and Ray Davis and be an important part of Joe Brady’s running attack.

Mitch Trubisky/Wide Receivers/Practice Squad Running Backs                  55 attempts
Kyle Allen had 13 neal downs in 2023, the Bills had 7 wide receiver rushing attempts and 35 practice squad running back rushes.  These are necessary.

Passing Game
Joe Brady’s offense threw the football 47.7% of the time in 2023, which wasn’t a typical Brian Daboll/Ken Dorsey-led offense; but under Joe Brady, I’d anticipate a similar outcome in 2024.

Brady is going to have to figure out how to redistribute the 241 targets vacated by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and it shouldn’t be too hard considering the Bills projected 2024 main receiving target options have excellent reception percentage and playmaking ability.

I’d anticipate the following player targets this coming season:

Dalton Kincaid  115 Targets
After getting 91 targets in 2023 and catching over 80% of the passes that came his way, look for Dalton Kincaid’s production to continue to climb and Josh Allen’s trust in him to be sky-high. 

Kincaid has what it takes to be an All-Pro level tight end and he’ll get his opportunity in 2024.

Khalil Shakir       98 Targets
Did you know that Khalil Shakir posted the highest EVER catch percentage for a wide receiver?  Well, it’s true and he did it in 2023.

Shakir is another pass catcher that has gained Josh Allen’s trust and look for his production to skyrocket in 2024.

Curtis Samuel    90 targets
Curtis Samuel has had 90+ targets in four consecutive healthy seasons in Carolina and Washington and there’s no reason why he wouldn’t again in 2024.

Keon Coleman  87 targets
It’s hard to predict what a rookie “X” receiver will do on a Sean McDermott-led team.  Some rookies see a lot of playing time (O’Cyrus Torrence, Dalton Kincaid) and some do not (James Cook, Khalil Shakir). 

However, the Bills didn’t draft Keon Coleman along with Josh Allen’s endorsement to not see the field.

James Cook        57 targets
James Cook had 54 targets in 2023.  He’ll have at least that many in 2024 I’d anticipate him getting more touches through the air and less on the ground with Ray Davis absorbing more rushing attempts.

Dawson Knox    54 targets
When he’s healthy, Dawson Knox gets between 50-60 targets a season.  However, last season he missed five games, and he now has a diminished role, being the TE2. 

It’ll be interesting to see Dawson’s role in the Bills 2024 offense.

Ray Davis            38 Targets
In 36 career college games, Ray Davis had a total of 86 receptions and was lauded for his great hands coming out of college.

Latavius Murray and Damien Harris combined for 29 targets last season and I could see Ray Davis getting at least that many in 2024.

Mack Hollins     13 Targets
Although he has had no less than 22 targets in his career and a career high 94 in 2022, there simply are too many hungry mouths to feed on the Buffalo offense this season.

Mack Hollins is an interesting case as many suspect he’ll be used for his blocking ability more than his receiving.

Justin Shorter, Ty Johnson, Quintin Morris, Reggie Gilliam, Chase Claypool, Practice Squid WR’s                                16 Targets
Justin Shorter is a wild card at this point.  He could be as high as the Bills WR5 or he could be as low as being a practice squad player or even cut.  Training Camp will tell us more about Shorter.

Ty Johnson had seven targets with the Bills last season in 10 games.  He may have more than that this year if he is the Bills true RB3.

The Bills love Quintin Morris for his special teams ability.  However, after having three targets in 2023, he probably won’t move the radar in 2024 for the Bills receiving offense either.

So many questions surround Chase Claypool.  If he’s the same receiver who played with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburg, he could legitimately be a lot higher on this list and get 75+ targets.  If he’s the same guy who played in Chicago/Miami the past two seasons, he could very easily be cut.

Reggie Gilliam is good for a couple targets a season.  Like Quintin Morris he’ll make the 53-man squad as a special teams ace.

It’ll be interesting to see how the 2024 season plays out.  Joe Brady introduced a much more balanced offensive attack after he took the reins midway through the season.

Will we see a more run-heavy approach as we did down the stretch in 2023?

Or, with the fact that Josh Allen won’t feel the need to force-feed Stefon Diggs, will we see a Bills passing attack that will include a plethora of talented pass catchers?