Bills-Patriots Week 4 Preview

The Bills are 3-0 and host a Patriots team that can’t get out of its own way. New England sits at 1-2, its quarterback has lost his groove, and the matchup tilts Buffalo’s way almost everywhere you look. Buffalo comes in off an ugly Week 3 win over the Chargers, so the question is whether this is the week the offense gets right or another divisional slog.

On this week’s 1st and 5, Dave and Greg previewed the Biklls-Patriots game with Patriots beat writer Ethan Hurwitz and Banged Up Bills injury analyst Kyle Trimble, covering:

• What’s gone wrong for Drake Maye and the Patriots offense
• The one way New England thinks it can keep this close
• Is this a James Cook game, or does it come down to Josh Allen?
• The injuries that actually matter on both sides
• Who wins, and the score the Patriots’ side expects

What’s Wrong With the Patriots Offense?

A year ago Drake Maye looked like the next young star in the AFC. This season he looks lost. He’s leaving points on the field, including red-zone and end-zone interceptions against Seattle and Jacksonville. The Patriots are 1-2, and the offense is the reason.

Ethan Hurwitz covers the Patriots for Sports Illustrated, and he laid out what’s changed. Maye lost his top receiver, A.J. Brown, back in Week 1. That matters more than the box score shows. Ethan compared it to Josh Allen before Stefon Diggs arrived, when the talent was there but the trust and the timing weren’t. Take away the one guy who made it easy, and suddenly the reads get hard.

The bigger problem is that the league has caught up. Teams now have a full season of film on Maye in this offense. They’re playing a lot of cover 6 and daring him to make throws down the field. Last year he surprised people. This year defenses know what’s coming.

The scheme isn’t bailing him out. Josh McDaniels has run the same system in New England for two decades. Ethan’s take is that there’s little creativity left in it, and everyone has seen it. The offense isn’t sustainable right now, and Ethan pointed out the stakes go beyond Sunday. Maye is up for a big extension, and a few more weeks like this could change how the Patriots think about paying him.

Where New England Thinks It Can Keep It Close

The Patriots aren’t a walkover, and Ethan spelled out where they can make it a game. It starts with the run. New England has to run the ball, keep Josh Allen on the sideline, and shorten the game. The problem is they haven’t run it well all year. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has the burst to change that, but he’s barely been used. Getting him going off tackle is how the Patriots open up the rest of the playbook.

The matchup that scares New England is its own offensive line. The left side is fine. The right side is a mess. They lost their starting right guard to a broken ankle, then lost his replacement to a thigh injury, and now they’re down to a third-string guard next to a shaky right tackle. That’s the exact spot Greg Rousseau lines up, and Ethan sees it as where the Patriots get beat.

The news isn’t all bad for New England. Ethan trusts the secondary. Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis give the Patriots two real man corners, and the plan is to funnel everything to the middle of the field. Robert Spillane leads a group of big, physical linebackers. They’re sound against the run and don’t miss many tackles in the box. Where they get exposed is on crossing routes and quick hitters over the middle. That’s exactly Khalil Shakir’s game. Ethan also sees this as a tight-end week for both teams. Hunter Henry has to become Maye’s safety blanket, and Dalton Kincaid should eat up the middle for Buffalo once the corners take the outside away.

The worry for the Patriots is the pass rush. The edge room is thin. They gave up 35 points to Jacksonville and five red-zone touchdowns, and they’ve only faced backup quarterbacks so far. Now Josh Allen comes to town, and Ethan knows it. He called this the biggest test New England has had, and the whole thing comes down to whether the Patriots can get off the field when the Bills have the ball.

Is This a James Cook Game?

On paper, it looks like one. The Patriots’ run defense can be moved, and James Cook is playing like a top-three back. He’s averaging 6 yards a carry and running like the ball is glued to him. Greg’s plan for this game is to lean on exactly that. Run it and feed Cook on the ground and out of the backfield. Control the clock and grind a thin Patriots roster into the fourth quarter. The run sets up the rest. Once New England has to honor Cook, play-action opens the middle for Kincaid and Shakir against those linebackers.

The twist comes from Greg himself. Even the guy drawing up the Cook plan thinks this game stays close and comes down to Josh Allen. His player-of-the-game pick isn’t Cook. It’s Allen, because if it’s tight in the fourth quarter, Allen is the one who wins it. So the run game is how Greg wants Buffalo to play it, but he’s bracing for an Allen game anyway.

Dave is the one betting big on Cook. He doesn’t love playing keep-away when you’re the favorite and the other team is reeling. Shortening the game only gives New England more chances at a fluke bounce. Dave would rather go for the jugular, and he sees Cook running wild in a game Buffalo controls up front, not a close one Allen has to rescue.

Can the Bills Defense Build on Last Week?

The defense comes in off its best game of the year, and the pass rush is still the question that won’t go away. For three straight weeks the Bills have faced banged-up offensive lines. For three straight weeks the pressure has shown up in flashes instead of all game. New England’s backup-heavy line is another chance to change that. The catch is that Buffalo may need to blitz to get home, because it hasn’t been winning with four.

Greg Rousseau is the exception, and he’s playing out of his mind. He’s the Defensive Player of the Month, the first Bills defender to win it during the Josh Allen era. Bradley Chubb next to him is a big reason why, drawing enough attention that offenses can’t just key on Rousseau. The run defense has taken a real step too. Greg Gaines is doing the dirty work inside, eating blocks so the linebackers run free, and DeWayne Carter has been stout.

The secondary is the real wild card, and there are reasons for optimism. NextGenStats has Maxwell Hairston as one of the best corners in the league by completion percentage allowed, which cuts against the panic of the first two weeks. IGB flashed when he filled in for Christian Benford. C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s red-zone pick last week is the kind of play that settles a group down. The matchup to circle is Dee Alford on Hunter Henry, since the tight end is where Maye will go when he needs an easy completion.

The Injury Picture

The Bills injury news is mostly good. Kyle Trimble from Banged Up Bills walked through the two that matter, and Josh Allen is the first one. Allen took a hard shot to the lower leg and knee against the Chargers and limped afterward. Kyle’s read is that it looked worse than it was, more hurt than injured. Allen isn’t on the injury report, and he’ll play.

Christian Benford is the real question. He’s dealing with a toe injury, and Kyle is leaning toward him sitting, with the Bills comfortable enough in their corner depth to hold him out. If Benford is down, IGB starts opposite Maxwell Hairston, and the Patriots will test him early.

Is There a Trap Here?

Bills fans have seen this movie before, and it didn’t end well. Last year Buffalo was 4-0 and a heavy favorite when a 2-2 Patriots team walked into Highmark Stadium and won. Divisional games have a way of getting weird no matter the records, and New England has every reason to play desperate.

The difference this year is the coaching staff. Joe Brady said in his presser that he hasn’t thought once about going up three games on the Patriots, only about going 1-0 this week. Whether that mindset holds up under adversity is still an open question with a first-year head coach. But after watching the Bills sleepwalk through the first half against the Chargers and survive anyway, the one thing they can’t afford is a repeat against a division rival that would love nothing more than to steal one in Buffalo.

Who’s Going to Win?

Nobody in the room picked the upset, the guest included.

Ethan, Bills by two scores. He sees a low-scoring win, not the shootout the Patriots pulled off in Buffalo a year ago, because he hasn’t seen enough from this New England offense to trust it.

Greg, Bills win late. He thinks the Patriots are better than their record. Their offense has moved the ball even in losses, and he expects a dogfight Buffalo wins in the fourth quarter.

Dave, Bills win going away. He’s betting on a Drake Maye pick-six and two James Cook rushing touchdowns.

The player-of-the-game picks split. Dave took James Cook and the run-it-down-their-throats plan. Greg took Josh Allen, figuring that if it stays close, Allen is the one who drags Buffalo across the line.

What Actually Decides This Game?

For all the talk, it comes back to the Bills’ front. Stop the run and get pressure on Maye early. A quarterback this low on confidence doesn’t want to drop back 40 times and throw Buffalo out of the building. Knock him off schedule, force him to be a passer, and this one tilts hard toward the Bills.

The risk is the flip side. If the front can’t get home and Maye has time, the young corners get tested, and a little doubt can snowball fast in a division game. Both sides point to the same place, though. New England’s only real path is the run, and stopping the run is exactly what this Bills defense has gotten better at.

Wrapping Up

The Bills are heavy favorites, but divisional games have a way of getting weird. Does Buffalo put a reeling Patriots team away early, or does this turn into the kind of AFC East dogfight that keeps Bills fans sweating into the fourth quarter?

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