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Dalton Kincaid is the key to Bills offensive success

NFL: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

No other pass-catcher in the NFL yielded a higher quarterback passer rating when targeted than Dalton Kincaid in 2025.

Although Kincaid missed five games this season and only had 571 receiving yards on 39 receptions, when Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw to him, he averaged 14.6 yards per reception (2nd to Tucker Kraft for all tight ends), 11.7 yards per target, and hauled in 79.6 percent of the passes thrown to him.

Kincaid also set a career high in touchdown passes (5) and receiving yards per game (47.6).

Kincaid is highly efficient when he’s on the field. The downside, however, has been his durability. He’s missed nine games in the last two seasons.

In the five games that Kincaid missed due to injury this year, the Bills went 2-3 and Allen’s passer rating was a paltry 81.9.

The Bills’ offensive success this season has been directory correlated to having Kincaid on the field and producing. When he’s been on the field, the Bills are 9-2 and Allen has a passer rating of 111.77.

The Bills training staff and coaches understand Kincaid’s on-field presence and greatly reduced his playing time down the stretch this season, perhaps to keep him healthy for the playoffs.

In his first five games of the season, Kincaid averaged 49.1% of the team’s offensive snaps and the Bills record was 4-1. In those games, he averaged 57.4 yards per game on four receptions with a catch percentage of 83.3%.

When Kincaid returned from injury in Week 14, his playing time was significantly decreased, seeing him averaging only 30.3% of the team’s offensive snaps with only 2.5 receptions per game and 30.8 receiving yards.

Decreasing reps hopefully will allow Kincaid to have fresher legs this weekend in Buffalo’s wild card matchup at Jacksonville where the Bills will face off against a Jaguars team who features a top-10 defense.

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