With six seasons under his belt, Josh Allen’s stock has risen to a point that many consider him the greatest Bills quarterback of all time, challenging the formerly undisputed top QB, Jim Kelly.
But how does one assess greatness amongst two quarterbacks from two different eras? And how would one decipher what attributes make one quarterback better than another.
Recently, I took a deep-dive into both Jim Kelly and Josh Allen’s career. Through looking at both quarterbacks’ statistics, teammates and clutch performances; I hope to settle the debate once and for all.
Many base their opinions on their “eye test”—Josh Allen has a stronger arm, bigger frame, can run faster and do things that Jim Kelly never dreamed of.
There is no doubt that Josh Allen’s skillset is far superior to Jim Kelly’s.
However, Jim Kelly retired from the Bills in 1996 and Josh Allen’s Bills rookie campaign was 2018. In those 22 years there have been advances in technology, training and nutrition that all current NFL quarterbacks have enjoyed the fruits of.
Josh Allen is on pace to shatter Jim Kelly’s Bills passing yards (35,467) and passing touchdowns (237) marks. Allen needs only 12,764 passing yards and 70 passing touchdowns to surpass Kelly and this could very well happen in three to four seasons.
However, Jim Kelly had an atypical NFL career. He missed the 1983, 1984 and 1985 seasons—the first three of his career due to playing in the USFL so his career numbers are skewed. Kelly could have easily had an additional 10,000 yards and 75 touchdown passes had he played these seasons with the Bills.
Another big factor that one needs to consider in the Bills QB GOAT conversation is the weapons and protection that each quarterback was given.
It’s no coincidence that Josh Allen’s career took a giant step forward in 2020 when the Bills traded for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs. But other than Diggs, the Bills have had mediocre at best talent for Josh Allen. And except for the 2023 season, the Bills offensive line has been average at best.
Jim Kelly already had Hall of Fame wide receiver, Andre Reed when he came into the league in 1986. Two years later, he was given another HOF’er, Thurman Thomas and then HOF’er, James Lofton in 1989. Kelly also played behind one the most consistent offensive lines in NFL history with the likes of Kent Hull, Howard Ballard, Jim Ritcher and Will Wolford.
Yes, the NFL was different in the 1980’s and 1990’s than it is today. The quarterbacks are much more protected now and pass catchers are given more liberties as well.
Keeping this in mind, the most objective way to compare Jim Kelly and Josh Allen statistically is to assess where they rank amongst their quarterback peers in the era that they played—not merely comparing statistics straight up.
This graphic shows Jim Kelly’s and Josh Allen’s rankings year by year in Yards Per Game, Touchdown Percentage, Interception Percentage and QB Rating.
Neither quarterback’s rankings amongst their peers stand out as being superior to the other.
In the Super Bowl years, Jim Kelly was among the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He finished second in MVP voting and was First-Team All-Pro in 1991. Kelly went to five Pro Bowls in six seasons from 1987-1992—back when a Pro Bowl nod meant something.
Josh Allen’s first two seasons were nothing spectacular, but starting in 2020, he turned a corner and is now regarded as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. Like Jim Kelly, Josh Allen finished second in MVP voting in 2020 and was selected to the Pro Bowl twice.
One negative similarity between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly is their knack for throwing interceptions. Allen finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in five of his six seasons. Kelly finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in eight of his eleven seasons in the league.
There are two major differences between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly that likely gives Allen the Bills QB GOAT nod over Kelly.
First is Josh Allen’s rushing ability.
In five of his six seasons in the league, Josh Allen finished top-50 in the league in rushing yards per game and he’s been top-25 in the league in rushing touchdowns every season of his career (he was top 10 twice). Allen has carried his team on his back year after year.
Jim Kelly was your typical immobile ‘80’s and ‘90’s quarterback. He rushed for seven career touchdowns. Josh Allen doubled that LAST SEASON.
The second major difference that pushes Josh Allen past Jim Kelly is Allen’s clutch playoff performances.
In 17 career playoff games, Jim Kelly had a QB Rating of 72.3, had 21 combined touchdowns and 28 interceptions. You might be saying to yourself, “Yes, but Jim Kelly led his team to four Super Bowls.” Well, as mentioned earlier—Kelly had a lot of help, especially from a guy named Thurman Thomas who averaged 74 rush yards per game with 20 touchdowns in 18 career playoff games with Jim Kelly under center.
Josh Allen has played in 10 career playoff games. His QB Rating is 100.0 with 26 combined touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Have the Bills gotten to a Super Bowl? No—but don’t put that on Josh Allen. Except for one game where Gabe Davis shined against the Chiefs with four receiving touchdowns, Josh Allen put his Bills team on his back and willed them to victory with no other stand-out performances from any other offensive player.
Jim Kelly is in the Hall of Fame and he 100% deserves it. He’s known for his toughness and resiliency. Kelly had some incredible seasons with the Bills and they would not have made the Super Bowl runs that they made without him. However, if you look at all the factors—factors that make a quarterback great, Josh Allen has to get the nod for the Bills GOAT.
