King of Miami: Will Josh Allen continue his dominance over Dolphins?

Josh Allen and the Bills have won the last 7 games against the Miami Dolphins

The Bills have a 7-1 record against the Dolphins since they drafted Josh Allen in 2018, and the two teams clash in Week 3 on Sunday in Miami, both sitting at 2-0.

In his eight career games vs Miami, Allen has posted 1,980 passing yards, 21 passing TDs, 5 INTs with an average passer rating of 106.8. He has also added 430 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. In the lone Miami loss of Allen’s career (Dec. 2, 2018), he accounted for 135 yards rushing and 2 passing TDs. For the majority of the eight matchups between the division rivals, Allen has unquestionably been the best player on the field.

The biggest question mark for Allen and the Bills as they look for their eighth win in a row against Miami this Sunday is most definitely injuries. The offense is mostly healthy aside from a banged up Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox, but both should play, and there should be plenty of options for Allen to get into his passing groove. On the other side of the ball, however, injuries are mounting. Already there have been four key defensive players ruled out for Sunday: Micah Hyde, Dane Jackson, Jordan Phillips and Ed Oliver. The secondary is almost completely depleted, and the interior of the line is thinning out as well. Not very ideal facing off against a team coming off a huge road win.

The 42-38 win over Baltimore in Week 2 proved that the Dolphins are capable of putting up points with their speed on the outside. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each put up 11 catches, over 170 yards, and 2 TDs in the game. But, Allen and the Bills attack should outlast it. Miami’s offense has improved drastically, but aside from stars like CB Xavien Howard and safety Jevon Holland, they have some glaring holes on defense. They are not getting to the quarterback and they are allowing passing yardage at the league’s worst rate:

Allen should be able to pick apart the Dolphin’s defense much like Lamar Jackson did last week. Jackson averaged 11.0 yards per attempt on his way to 300+ pass yards, 100+ rush yards and 4 total TDs.

No one has blitzed more than the Dolphins defense since Week 1 of 2021. Jackson welcomed the blitz last week, and he completed 13/16 for 213 yards, 2 TDs and a perfect 158.3 rating against it. Since 2020, Allen has the most passing yards against the blitz in the NFL, and he played lights out against the Rams’ blitz on opening night:

Right now, Allen is playing with a high level of comfortability. He and new OC Ken Dorsey have clearly been on the same page to start the year, and his chemistry with Stefon Diggs is at an all-time high. The days of the “sugar-high Josh” may be out the window for good, or at the very least it will be rare to see it come out. He is picking up on reads and working through progressions with ease. Through two weeks, Allen is tied for first in the NFL in passing touchdowns (7), second in passer rating (123.7), second in completion percentage (75.4%), and tied for third in yards per attempt (8.9). And, he’s only been sacked three times.

But, a QB can’t win a game by himself — just ask Lamar Jackson after being let down by his defense last week. Allen will need his defense to play solid in order to continue with his dominance over the fish.

The Bills defensive line should get the better of Miami’s o-line at times. The Dolphins rank 23rd in pass block win rate and have allowed the 7th -most QB pressures. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has the second-highest pressure rate in the league (pressuring on 41.6% of dropbacks) — while blitzing just three times through two games. The pressure should make QB Tua Tagovailoa uncomfortable enough to make the difference in the game that the Bills need. The Bills don’t punt much, so Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense will most likely need to pitch a near-perfect game.

Will Allen continue his dominance over Miami?

Flashback to two years ago on September 20, 2020, when the Bills traveled to Miami for Week 2 – remember that game? Allen passed for a career-high 415 yards and the Bills outlasted Miami 31-28 thanks to a 46-yard TD pass to John “Smoke” Brown late in the game.

That day served as a coming out party for Allen, as he connected for 4 TDs on 11.9 yards per attempt. I expect Allen’s yards per attempt to be high on Sunday due to Miami being prone to giving up explosive plays on defense, and and I expect him to lead the Bills to a win in a shootout much like he did in that Week 2 game in 2020.