Now that the shock of trading Stefon Diggs has subsided for most Bills fans and General Manager, Brandon Beane has filled the offensive roster (for the most part), let’s look at what a Diggs-less Bills offense will look like in 2024.
Stefon Diggs was a premier wide receiver in the league during his four-year tenure in Buffalo. He was among the league leaders in catches and receiving yards each year and came up with many big plays.
It’s clear that Diggs was Josh Allen’s number one guy and it wasn’t even close.
However, down the stretch in 2024 after Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator, Diggs was invisible and his numbers reflected that of a mediocre receiver who’s effort might not have been what Bills fans were used to seeing.
In the Bills final nine games, including two playoff games, Stefon Diggs caught 34 passes on 58 targets (58.6% catch percentage) with 388 yards (43 yards per game) and only 1 touchdown.
Did he attract teams’ number one cornerbacks? Yes. But this is no different than any other point in his Bills career.
Combine his decreased production with his salary drain and his off the field burden to the team (cryptic Twitter posts, inconsistent Bills camp attendance); the Bills brass were ready to take Diggs out of the equation.
So what are the Bills going to do without Stefon Diggs in 2024?
First and foremost, the presumed need for Josh Allen to throw to Diggs is gone. In other words, the Bills won’t have to keep one person happy by force-feeding him the football and a more team-oriented less-ego driven offense will be showcased in 2024.
Here is a percentage breakdown of where all of Josh Allen’s passes were targeted after Joe Brady took over starting in week 11.
Stefon Diggs 26.7%
Dalton Kincaid 18.1%
Khalil Shakir 12.8%
James Cook 12.4%
Gabriel Davis 8.5%
Trent Sherfield 5.3%
Dawson Knox 5.0%
Latavius Murray 4.6%
Ty Johnson 3.6%
Deonte Hardy 1.8%
Quintin Morris 0.1%
Andy Isabella 0.01%
If you add up the departed pass catchers, 46.9% of the intended targets will be gone in 2024.
Exiting in 2024 are Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Latavius Murray and Deonte Hardy.
Returning from 2023 is wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook.
The Bills added wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Chase Claypool via free agency and Keon Coleman through the draft. They also provided a bigger running back to spell James Cook with Ray Davis.
With a full offseason for Joe Brady to scheme and a few new weapons added to his arsenal, anticipate the Bills to run more 12 personnel (two tight end sets) than in 2023 and even utilize the ground game more.
It’s interesting to note the difference in play calling with Joe Brady versus Ken Dorsey last season. Ken Dorsey called passing plays 57.1% of the time and run plays 42.9% of the time. While Brady called 52.6% running plays and 47.7% passing plays.
With this information, here is a breakdown of the anticipated touches for each offensive player for the Bills in 2024 with their current roster. This is based off 1092 total offensive plays, which is the same amount the Bills ran in 2023:
Running Game
Joe Brady’s offense ran the ball nearly 53% of the time last season and this should continue in 2024. I’d anticipate that the Bills run the ball a total of 649 times with the running attempts going to the following players:
James Cook 225 attempts
In 2023, James Cook was the Bills featured back and he excelled most of the season but began to decline a bit later in the season and in the playoffs. This may have been because his workload was more than DOUBLE that of any season since his first year at Georgia in 2018.
I’d anticipate James Cook’s workload going down a bit. He carried the ball 237 times in 2023 and I’m predicting 225 rushes this season.
Ray Davis 173 attempts
The Bills didn’t use a 4th round draft pick on Ray Davis for him to ride the pine. Unlike James Cook, his college workload was heavy and he carried the ball a lot. Look for Ray Davis’s rush attempts to be slightly less than James Cooks and for him to be on the field often as he’s also an excellent pass catcher.
Although Sean McDermott has a history of being hesitant to give rookies playing time early in the season, Ray Davis will get the looks early and often.
Josh Allen 104 attempts
Remember when Bills Brass tried to contain Josh Allen and not allow him to freely run whenever he wanted last year? Well, that didn’t work and once Joe Brady became the Bills new offensive coordinator, he gave Josh the keys to use his legs whenever he wanted—and the Bills went on a hot streak after that happened.
Look for Josh Allen’s rushing attempts to come down a bit in 2024 as Joe Brady has had an offseason to scheme up some plays to get other playmakers going.
Ty Johnson 85 attempts
In five NFL seasons, Ty Johnson has had no more than 63 total rush attempts (2019 with Detroit).
Look for Ty Johnson to spell James Cook and Ray Davis and be an important part of Joe Brady’s running attack.
Mitch Trubisky/Wide Receivers/Practice Squad Running Backs 55 attempts
Kyle Allen had 13 neal downs in 2023, the Bills had 7 wide receiver rushing attempts and 35 practice squad running back rushes. These are necessary.
Passing Game
Joe Brady’s offense threw the football 47.7% of the time in 2023, which wasn’t a typical Brian Daboll/Ken Dorsey-led offense; but under Joe Brady, I’d anticipate a similar outcome in 2024.
Brady is going to have to figure out how to redistribute the 241 targets vacated by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and it shouldn’t be too hard considering the Bills projected 2024 main receiving target options have excellent reception percentage and playmaking ability.
I’d anticipate the following player targets this coming season:
Dalton Kincaid 115 Targets
After getting 91 targets in 2023 and catching over 80% of the passes that came his way, look for Dalton Kincaid’s production to continue to climb and Josh Allen’s trust in him to be sky-high.
Kincaid has what it takes to be an All-Pro level tight end and he’ll get his opportunity in 2024.
Khalil Shakir 98 Targets
Did you know that Khalil Shakir posted the highest EVER catch percentage for a wide receiver? Well, it’s true and he did it in 2023.
Shakir is another pass catcher that has gained Josh Allen’s trust and look for his production to skyrocket in 2024.
Curtis Samuel 90 targets
Curtis Samuel has had 90+ targets in four consecutive healthy seasons in Carolina and Washington and there’s no reason why he wouldn’t again in 2024.
Keon Coleman 87 targets
It’s hard to predict what a rookie “X” receiver will do on a Sean McDermott-led team. Some rookies see a lot of playing time (O’Cyrus Torrence, Dalton Kincaid) and some do not (James Cook, Khalil Shakir).
However, the Bills didn’t draft Keon Coleman along with Josh Allen’s endorsement to not see the field.
James Cook 57 targets
James Cook had 54 targets in 2023. He’ll have at least that many in 2024 I’d anticipate him getting more touches through the air and less on the ground with Ray Davis absorbing more rushing attempts.
Dawson Knox 54 targets
When he’s healthy, Dawson Knox gets between 50-60 targets a season. However, last season he missed five games, and he now has a diminished role, being the TE2.
It’ll be interesting to see Dawson’s role in the Bills 2024 offense.
Ray Davis 38 Targets
In 36 career college games, Ray Davis had a total of 86 receptions and was lauded for his great hands coming out of college.
Latavius Murray and Damien Harris combined for 29 targets last season and I could see Ray Davis getting at least that many in 2024.
Mack Hollins 13 Targets
Although he has had no less than 22 targets in his career and a career high 94 in 2022, there simply are too many hungry mouths to feed on the Buffalo offense this season.
Mack Hollins is an interesting case as many suspect he’ll be used for his blocking ability more than his receiving.
Justin Shorter, Ty Johnson, Quintin Morris, Reggie Gilliam, Chase Claypool, Practice Squid WR’s 16 Targets
Justin Shorter is a wild card at this point. He could be as high as the Bills WR5 or he could be as low as being a practice squad player or even cut. Training Camp will tell us more about Shorter.
Ty Johnson had seven targets with the Bills last season in 10 games. He may have more than that this year if he is the Bills true RB3.
The Bills love Quintin Morris for his special teams ability. However, after having three targets in 2023, he probably won’t move the radar in 2024 for the Bills receiving offense either.
So many questions surround Chase Claypool. If he’s the same receiver who played with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburg, he could legitimately be a lot higher on this list and get 75+ targets. If he’s the same guy who played in Chicago/Miami the past two seasons, he could very easily be cut.
Reggie Gilliam is good for a couple targets a season. Like Quintin Morris he’ll make the 53-man squad as a special teams ace.
It’ll be interesting to see how the 2024 season plays out. Joe Brady introduced a much more balanced offensive attack after he took the reins midway through the season.
Will we see a more run-heavy approach as we did down the stretch in 2023?
Or, with the fact that Josh Allen won’t feel the need to force-feed Stefon Diggs, will we see a Bills passing attack that will include a plethora of talented pass catchers?
