What a rollercoaster of a season for the Buffalo Bills. After peaking against Miami in week four, the Bills lost their mojo on a trans-Atlantic flight to England, losing to the Jaguars. Their loss in London began a 2-4 skid that led to the firing of offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey.
Since Dorsey’s firing and the promotion of Joe Brady, Buffalo has gone 4-1 and revived their once dismal playoff hopes.
The main constant on this ride has been quarterback Josh Allen, who has led his team from the brinks of despair to the “scariest team in football.”
The Bills have lived and died with Allen this year. He’s had many games where he’s looked like the best player in the league (Raiders, Dolphins and Eagles games) and he’s a few games where you wonder if he should be benched (Week 1 vs Jets and Broncos games).
But has Josh Allen put together an MVP season? The NFL MVP is given to the player who is the most valuable during the regular season. There are no doubts that Josh Allen is valuable to the Bills. But is he more valuable than the other players who are contending for the reward?
As it stands today, Lamar Jackson has the best odds to win the MVP award. Jackson’s Vegas odds to win are -200. He’s followed by Christian McCaffrey (+450), Tua Tagovailoa (+600), Brock Purdy (+1600) and Dak Prescott (+2000). Josh Allen is a +1200 to win the award.
Why Josh Allen Should Win MVP
Josh Allen should win this year’s MVP because he has proven he’s the most valuable player on a team that has been perhaps the league’s best when it’s counted the most and if he can will the Bills to a playoff performance (their odds of the playoffs are now over 90%) or even win the AFC East, Allen will have shown how clutch of a player he is.
Not only does Allen lead the NFL in total touchdowns with 40, but he’s also accounted for 83% of his team’s touchdowns. This beats Jalen Hurts (80%) and is the second highest mark of all former quarterback MVP seasons behind Brett Favre’s 84% in 1995.
Allen is also top-10 in most major passing statistics including QBR, QB Rating, Completion %age and Passing Yards.
Why Josh Allen Should Not Win MVP
Turnovers. Josh Allen has had a combined 18 turnovers this season and they’ve directly affected multiple Bills losses. Take the turnovers away against the Jets in the season opener and Broncos back in mid-November and the Bills win handily. Allen has at times been careless with the football and he’s just as much known for turning the ball over as he is being a great football player.
Going hand in hand with Allen’s at times “careless” play is the Bills record. Even if the Bills win out and go 11-6, Josh Allen’s Bills would still likely trail Lamar Jackson’s Ravens, Dak Prescott’s Cowboys, and Brock Purdy/Christian McCaffrey’s 49ers. Historically, the NFL MVP goes to a player who’s been on a great team primed for a playoff run.
Who Wins This Season’s MVP
If the season ended today, the NFL MVP should be either Josh Allen or Christian McCaffrey.
Lamar Jackson is the current front-runner (-200), but his numbers are not MVP-quality. Here’s Jackson’s current rankings:
Team’s Record: 12-3
Total Touchdowns: 11th
QBR: 8th
QB Rating: 8th
Completion %: 11th
Passing Yards: 15th
Interception %: 8th
Tua Tagovailoa has the second highest odds to win MVP amongst all quarterbacks (+600). Based off passing rankings alone, Tua looks solid and deserves to have higher MVP odds than Lamar Jackson. Here are Tua’s numbers:
Team’s Record: 11-4
Total Touchdowns: 9th
QBR: 12th
QB Rating: 2nd
Completion %: 1st
Passing Yards: 1st
Interception %: 17th
Josh Allen has the third highest MVP odds amongst quarterbacks (+1200). Here are his numbers:
Team’s Record: 9-6
Total Touchdowns: 1st
QBR: 2nd
QB Rating: 10th
Completion %: 9th
Passing Yards: 6th
Interception %: 28th
Brock Purdy has the fourth highest MVP odds amongst quarterbacks (+1600). Here are his numbers:
Teams’s Record: 11-4
Total Touchdowns: 4th
QBR: 1st
QB Rating: 1st
Completion %: 3rd
Passing Yards: 2nd
Interception %: 25th
Dak Prescott has the fifth highest MVP odds amongst quarterbacks (+2000)
Team’s Record: 10-5
Total Touchdowns: 3rd
QBR: 3rd
QB Rating: 3rd
Completion %: 4th
Passing Yards: 5th
Interception %: 3rd
