For the first time in Josh Allen’s seven-year career, the Buffalo Bills will be returning four primary offensive line starters from the previous season.  The only missing lineman from 2023 is Mitch Morse, who the Bills released this past March.

Primary starting offensive linemen returning to the Bills in 2024 are:

Left Tackle, Dion Dawkins
Left Guard, Connor McGovern
Right Guard, O’Cyrus Torrence
Right Tackle, Spencer Brown

There is a good chance that Connor McGovern moves to center, opening the door for David Edwards to take over the starting left guard position. 

In four seasons with the Rams, David Edwards started in 45 out of 53 games active and is lauded by Bills coaching staff.

The other possibility is for the center position to go to rookie, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, who the Bills drafted in the 5^th round this past April.

The Bills starting offensive line will look to continue to improve on an already solid 2023 performance.  The ’23 front five allowed their quarterback to only be sacked 4% of his drop backs in 2023, the lowest mark in the league.

Much of the 2023 Bills offensive line success can be attributed to health.  All five starting offensive linemen started all 17 games in 2023—a trend that the Bills coaching staff would like to continue in 2024.

With six seasons under his belt, Josh Allen’s stock has risen to a point that many consider him the greatest Bills quarterback of all time, challenging the formerly undisputed top QB, Jim Kelly.

But how does one assess greatness amongst two quarterbacks from two different eras?  And how would one decipher what attributes make one quarterback better than another.

Recently, I took a deep-dive into both Jim Kelly and Josh Allen’s career.  Through looking at both quarterbacks’ statistics, teammates and clutch performances; I hope to settle the debate once and for all.

Many base their opinions on their “eye test”—Josh Allen has a stronger arm, bigger frame, can run faster and do things that Jim Kelly never dreamed of.

There is no doubt that Josh Allen’s skillset is far superior to Jim Kelly’s. 

However, Jim Kelly retired from the Bills in 1996 and Josh Allen’s Bills rookie campaign was 2018.  In those 22 years there have been advances in technology, training and nutrition that all current NFL quarterbacks have enjoyed the fruits of.

Josh Allen is on pace to shatter Jim Kelly’s Bills passing yards (35,467) and passing touchdowns (237) marks.  Allen needs only 12,764 passing yards and 70 passing touchdowns to surpass Kelly and this could very well happen in three to four seasons.

However, Jim Kelly had an atypical NFL career.  He missed the 1983, 1984 and 1985 seasons—the first three of his career due to playing in the USFL so his career numbers are skewed.  Kelly could have easily had an additional 10,000 yards and 75 touchdown passes had he played these seasons with the Bills.

Another big factor that one needs to consider in the Bills QB GOAT conversation is the weapons and protection that each quarterback was given.

It’s no coincidence that Josh Allen’s career took a giant step forward in 2020 when the Bills traded for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs.  But other than Diggs, the Bills have had mediocre at best talent for Josh Allen.  And except for the 2023 season, the Bills offensive line has been average at best.

Jim Kelly already had Hall of Fame wide receiver, Andre Reed when he came into the league in 1986.  Two years later, he was given another HOF’er, Thurman Thomas and then HOF’er, James Lofton in 1989.  Kelly also played behind one the most consistent offensive lines in NFL history with the likes of Kent Hull, Howard Ballard, Jim Ritcher and Will Wolford.

Yes, the NFL was different in the 1980’s and 1990’s than it is today.  The quarterbacks are much more protected now and pass catchers are given more liberties as well. 

Keeping this in mind, the most objective way to compare Jim Kelly and Josh Allen statistically is to assess where they rank amongst their quarterback peers in the era that they played—not merely comparing statistics straight up.

This graphic shows Jim Kelly’s and Josh Allen’s rankings year by year in Yards Per Game, Touchdown Percentage, Interception Percentage and QB Rating.

Neither quarterback’s rankings amongst their peers stand out as being superior to the other. 

In the Super Bowl years, Jim Kelly was among the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He finished second in MVP voting and was First-Team All-Pro in 1991.  Kelly went to five Pro Bowls in six seasons from 1987-1992—back when a Pro Bowl nod meant something.

Josh Allen’s first two seasons were nothing spectacular, but starting in 2020, he turned a corner and is now regarded as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.  Like Jim Kelly, Josh Allen finished second in MVP voting in 2020 and was selected to the Pro Bowl twice.

One negative similarity between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly is their knack for throwing interceptions.  Allen finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in five of his six seasons.  Kelly finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in eight of his eleven seasons in the league.

There are two major differences between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly that likely gives Allen the Bills QB GOAT nod over Kelly.

First is Josh Allen’s rushing ability.

In five of his six seasons in the league, Josh Allen finished top-50 in the league in rushing yards per game and he’s been top-25 in the league in rushing touchdowns every season of his career (he was top 10 twice).  Allen has carried his team on his back year after year.

Jim Kelly was your typical immobile ‘80’s and ‘90’s quarterback.  He rushed for seven career touchdowns.  Josh Allen doubled that LAST SEASON.

The second major difference that pushes Josh Allen past Jim Kelly is Allen’s clutch playoff performances.

In 17 career playoff games, Jim Kelly had a QB Rating of 72.3, had 21 combined touchdowns and 28 interceptions.  You might be saying to yourself, “Yes, but Jim Kelly led his team to four Super Bowls.”  Well, as mentioned earlier—Kelly had a lot of help, especially from a guy named Thurman Thomas who averaged 74 rush yards per game with 20 touchdowns in 18 career playoff games with Jim Kelly under center.

Josh Allen has played in 10 career playoff games.  His QB Rating is 100.0 with 26 combined touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  Have the Bills gotten to a Super Bowl?  No—but don’t put that on Josh Allen.  Except for one game where Gabe Davis shined against the Chiefs with four receiving touchdowns, Josh Allen put his Bills team on his back and willed them to victory with no other stand-out performances from any other offensive player.

Jim Kelly is in the Hall of Fame and he 100% deserves it.  He’s known for his toughness and resiliency.  Kelly had some incredible seasons with the Bills and they would not have made the Super Bowl runs that they made without him.  However, if you look at all the factors—factors that make a quarterback great, Josh Allen has to get the nod for the Bills GOAT.

The Buffalo Bills open their regular season against the Arizona Cardinals in only 95 days!  It may sound like a long way out, but once the summer months start rolling, Bill Mafia will primed and ready to rock Highmark Stadium before we know it.

We know what the core of the 2024 Bills squad will be, however we will likely see a veteran or two signed with the open cap space freed up with the June 1 cut of Tre White for depth.

However, it’s never to early (and it’s kinda fun) to take a look at which Bills players will be on the 53-man roster.

Here is a position-by-position preview of the 2024 Buffalo Bills 53-man roster:

Quarterback
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Josh Allen
2.  Mitch Trubisky

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:
Shane Buechele

Analysis:  This is the easiest position to predict.  It is unlikely that the Bills sign anyone to challenge Trubisky at QB2 and Buechele has been a solid practice squad quarterback for both the Chiefs and Bills.

Running Back
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  James Cook
2.  Ty Johnson
3.  Ray Davis

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:
Frank Gore Jr, Darrynton Evans

Analysis:  James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis are likely locks for the team unless Frank Gore Jr can make a run and then I’d imagine Ty Johnson would be the odd man out.

Fullback
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Reggie Gilliam

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:
None

Analysis:  No surprises here.  Gilliam is the only rostered fullback and the coaching staff values his special teams contributions. 

Wide Receiver
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Keon Coleman
2.  Khalil Shakir  
3.  Curtis Samuel
4.  Mack Hollins
5.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling
6.  Justin Shorter

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Chase Claypool, KJ Hamler, Andy Isabella, Xavier Johnson, Lawrence Keys, Bryan Thompson, Tyrell Shavers

Analysis:  Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins are locks. 

The Bills will roster either Marquez Valdez-Scantling OR Chase Claypool—not both.  This is because of both of their inabilities to play special teams.  MVS has more recent success and Chase Claypool, if he can keep his head straight, has more upside.  It’ll be interesting to see which makes the roster.

Tight End
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Dalton Kincaid
2.  Dawson Knox
3.  Quintin Morris

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Tre McKitty, Zach Davidson

Analysis:  The tight end position is straight forward.  The Bills coaching staff like Quintin Morris for his blocking ability and special teams play.

Offensive Line
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Dion Dawkins (LT)
2.  Connor McGovern (LG)
3.  Sedrick Van Pran Granger ( C )
4.  O’Cyrus Torrence (RG)
5.  Spencer Brown (RT)
6.  Ryan Van Demark (T)
7.  David Edwards (G)
8.  La’El Collins (T)
9.  Alec Anderson (G)

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Will Clapp, Tylan Grable, Travis Clayton, Keaton Bills, Gunner Britton, Mike Edwards, Kevin Jarvis, Richard Gouraige

Analysis:  The Bills starting offensive line will mirror 2023’s except for Sedrick Van Pran Granger. 

It will be interesting to see who will win out the backup OL roles.  David Edwards is a lock and may very well be the Bills starting left guard, pushing Connor McGovern to the center position.

Ryan Van Demark and Alec Anderson were feel-good stories last season, defying the odds and making the 53-man squad.  We’ll see if drafted rookie, Tylan Grable can push either of them for a roster spot.

Defensive End
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1.  Greg Rousseau
2.  Von Miller
3.  AJ Epenesa
4.  Casey Toohill
5.  Javon Solomon

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Kingsley Jonathan, Dawuane Smoot, Kameron Cline, Rondell Bothroyd, David Ugwoegbu

Analysis:  Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, AJ Epenesa and Javon Solomon are locks for the 53-man.

The 5^th roster spot is hide open, however.  Veteran, Casey Toohill is the frontrunner heading at this point, but Dawuane Smoot and Kingsley Jonathan will also push to make the roster.

Defensive Line
Projected to make 53-man Roster:
1. Ed Oliver
2.  Daquan Jones
3.  Austin Johnson
4.  Deshawn Williams
5.  Dewayne Carter

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Brandon Deen, Eli Ankou, Gable Steveson

Analysis:  At this point, the five defensive linemen who will likely make the team is cut and dry.  Veterans Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, Austin Johnson and Deshawn Williams along with rookie Dewayne Carter will be on the squad unless one of the lower-tier linemen make a training camp push.  

Linebacker
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:
1.  Matt Milano
2.  Terrel Bernard
3.  Dorian Williams
4.  Nicholas Morrow
5.  Baylon Spector
6.  Edefuan Ulofoshio

Projected to make Practice Squad for Cut:  Deion Jones, Joe Andreessen, Shayne Simon

Analysis:  Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Nicholas Morrow and rookie Edefuan Ulofoshio will make the 53-man roster.  Baylon Spector is on the inside looking out and will likely make the roster unless one of the remaining three make a strong training camp push.

Cornerback
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:
1.  Rasul Douglas
2.  Christian Benford
3.  Taron Johnson
4.  Kaiir Elam
5.  Daequan Hardy
6.  Ja’Marcus Ingram

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Keni-H Lovely, Kyron Brown, Te’Cory Couch

Analysis:  The only question mark on this position group is the CB6 spot.  Could Ja’Marcus Ingram finally make the roster after to years of practice squad play?

Safety
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:
1.  Taylor Rapp
2.  Mike Edwards
3.  Cole Bishop
4.  Cam Lewis

Projected to make Practice Squad or Cut:  Damar Hamlin, Kendall Williamson, Dee Delaney

Analysis:  The four safety roster spots are set.  At this point, it looks like Damar Hamlin will be on the outside looking in.

Special Teams
Projected to make the 53-man Roster:

Kicker:  Tyler Bass
Punter:  Sam Martin
LS:  Reid Ferguson