Buffalo Bills
The Numbers Don’t Lie: The NFL’s All-Time Top 20 Quarterbacks
What does it take to be an All-Time elite NFL quarterback? Is it the signal-caller with the best statistics? The most Super Bowls? How about leading your team to the playoffs year after year?
The answer is, “All of the above.”
Through hours of research, I have analyzed over 200 NFL quarterbacks and assigned them points based on their career statistical rankings, Super Bowl wins and appearances, All Pro and MVP nominations and season leading statistics.
Each category is weighted based on importance:
Super Bowl Wins 12 points each
League MVP 15 points each
1st Team All-Pro 10 points each
Super Bowl MVP 9 points each
Super Bowl Losses 8 points each
Seasons Leading Pass Yards 8 points
Seasons Leading Pass TD’s 8 points
2-5th Place MVP Voting 7.5 points
Playoff Wins 5 points
Seasons Leading Int’s -8 points
Please note that this list is an accumulation of a quarterback’s achievements and statistics over their career—a quarterback with a long career with a large amount of accolades is more likely to make the list over a quarterback with multiple accolades and shorter career.
1. Tom Brady 725.5 points
The Goat by a mile. You know Tom Brady’s resume over 23 seasons—7 Super Bowl wins (3 losses), 3 MVP’s, 5 Super Bowl MVP’s, 3 times First-Team All Pro and the all-time leader in Passing Yards and Passing Touchdowns.
No one’s going to touch Tom Brady for a long time.
2. Peyton Manning 543.5 points
Once again, Peyton Manning plays second fiddle to Tom Brady.
Manning’s 5 MVP’s and 7 First-Team All-Pro selections along with his top-3 passing marks are what make up for his lack of Super Bowls and put him ahead of Joe Montana.
3. Joe Montana 412.5 points
Joe Cool was the GOAT until Tom Brady came along. His 4 Super Bowls, 2 MVPs and 3 First-Team All-Pro selections were unmatched for a couple decades.
If quarterbacks in the 80’s had the protection that they do today, Montana’s career may have been extended and then who knows how many rings he’d have.
4. Brett Favre 385.5 points
Although he only won one Super Bowl (and lost another), Brett Favre held many NFL passing record for a while. He also won 3 MVP’s and 3 First-Team All-Pro’s over a 20-season career.
5. Aaron Rodgers 385.5 points
What a QB dynasty in Green Bay! Nearly 30 years of Hall of Fame quarterback play between Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers picked up where Favre left off—amassing 4 MVP’s and 4 First-Team All-Pro selections, 1 Super Bowl and top-10 in most career quarterback numbers.
6. Drew Brees 382.0 points
Although he never won an MVP, Drew Brees placed in the top-5 in four different seasons. Add a Super Bowl win and top-5 in most all-time QB statistics and Brees is a top-10 all-time quarterback.
7. Johnny Unitas 355.0 points
It’s tough comparing quarterbacks from the 80’s and 90’s to todays. It’s even tougher comparing QB’s from the 50’s and 60’s.
Johnny Unitas transcended the quarterback position. He retired in 1973 and is still top-25 in passing yards (23rd) and passing touchdowns (17th).
Top that off with 3 world championships, 5 First-Team All-Pro nominations, 3 MVP awards and four 2nd-5th place MVP finishes and you have the 7thbest quarterback of all time.
8. Dan Marino 349.0 points
Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl. He DID break every NFL passing record and hold on to them for a decade all the while winning an MVP and 3 First-Team All-Pro’s. Marino is still top-10 in most significant passing marks and led the NFL in passing yards 5 times and passing touchdowns 3 times.
9. John Elway 346.5 points
It’s unlikely there will be a fairytale ending to a quarterback’s career more so than John Elway’s.
After getting blown out in three Super Bowls in the ‘80’s, Elway’s career was left for dead over the next half-decade before going on to win consecutive Super Bowls at the end of his career.
Elway’s numbers were as consistent as they come in a time where inflated quarterback numbers were not as prevalent as they are today.
Tack on an MVP in 1987 and three other top-5 MVP finishes, and John Elway is a top-10 All-Time quarterback.
10. Patrick Mahomes 338.5 points
Patrick Mahomes has taken Tom Brady’s torch and it appears he’ll be holding on to it for a while.
In only 6 seasons, Mahomes has 3 Super Bowls wins (1 loss), 2 MVP’s, 3 times placed 2nd-5th in MVP voting, won 1st-Team All-Pro honors twice and has 15 total playoff wins.
11. Steve Young 290.0 points
Once he got his shot, Steve Young never looked back.
Starting in his first full season as 49ers quarterback in 1992, Young won 3 consecutive First-Team All-Pro’s and MVP in 2 out of 3 seasons. He’d go on to lead the league in touchdown passes 4 times and a Super Bowl.
12. Ben Roethlisberger 284.0 points
In his 18 seasons, Big Ben won 2 Super Bowls, placed Top-5 in all-time passing yards and touchdowns, led the NFL in passing yards twice (and interceptions twice) and won 13 playoff games.
13. Fran Tarkenton 276.5 points
Guess who’s passing records Dan Marino broke—Fran Tarkenton’s.
Although he never won a Super Bowl, Tarkenton led the Vikings to four of them, won league MVP once, was 1st-Team All-Pro once and is STILL top-15 all-time in many passing statistics!
14. Terry Bradshaw 267.5 points
The ‘70’s Steelers dynasty is most notable for its Steel Curtain defense. But they would’ve never won 4 Super Bowls without Terry Bradshaw.
In a time when the NFL’s focus was NOT on quarterback safety, Bradshaw still put up respectable numbers, including leading the league in passing touchdowns twice and winning the 1978 MVP and First-Team All-Pro.
15. Kurt Warner 264.0 points
Kurt Warner only started 10 or more games SEVEN TIMES in his 12-year NFL career.
However, in a short time, he won a Super Bowl, lost two others, won MVP twice, First Team All-Pro twice and was the architect of one of the most amazing, out-of-nowhere offenses of all-time!
16. Dan Fouts 262.5 points
Although he only won three playoff games, Dan Fouts was a regular-season juggernaut in the early ’80’s. As the leader of “Air Coryell,” Fouts would lead the NFL in passing four consecutive seasons, lead the league in touchdowns in 1981 and 1982 and finish top-6 in MVP voting from 1979-1982.
17. Russell Wilson 241.0 points
Although he’s currently in the twilight of his career, Russell Wilson’s first 10 seasons with the Seahawks were about as good and consistent as it gets. Although he never won an MVP or All-Pro nomination, Wilson was consistently among the league leaders in passing yards and passing touchdowns (he led the league in 2017).
Tack on two Super Bowl appearances (winning it all in 2013) and you have yourself a top-20 All-Time quarterback.
18. Eli Manning 238.0 points
Why is Eli Manning on this Top-20 list?
How about because he won 2 Super Bowls (both over the GOAT) AND placed top-10 on the career passing yards and touchdowns list.
19. Jim Kelly 237.0 points
In only 11 seasons, Jim Kelly led the Bills to 8 playoff appearances and four Super Bowls. Did he win any of them? No. But the record of four consecutive Super Bowl appearances had never happened before the Bills did it and hasn’t happened since.
Kelly won First-Team All-Pro honors in 1991 and although only playing 160 regular season games in an era where quarterbacks weren’t protected as they are today, still put up Hall of Fame-level passing numbers.
20. Matt Ryan 236.0 points
He almost had a Super Bowl win versus Tom Brady in 2016.
Nonetheless, Matt Ryan put up incredible and consistent passing numbers over his 15 seasons in the NFL, ranking in the top-10 in most passing categories.
Ryan also won MVP and First-Team All-Pro honors in 2016.
For the first time in Josh Allen’s seven-year career, the Buffalo Bills will be returning four primary offensive line starters from the previous season. The only missing lineman from 2023 is Mitch Morse, who the Bills released this past March.
Primary starting offensive linemen returning to the Bills in 2024 are:
Left Tackle, Dion Dawkins
Left Guard, Connor McGovern
Right Guard, O’Cyrus Torrence
Right Tackle, Spencer Brown
There is a good chance that Connor McGovern moves to center, opening the door for David Edwards to take over the starting left guard position.
In four seasons with the Rams, David Edwards started in 45 out of 53 games active and is lauded by Bills coaching staff.
The other possibility is for the center position to go to rookie, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, who the Bills drafted in the 5th round this past April.
The Bills starting offensive line will look to continue to improve on an already solid 2023 performance. The ’23 front five allowed their quarterback to only be sacked 4% of his drop backs in 2023, the lowest mark in the league.
Much of the 2023 Bills offensive line success can be attributed to health. All five starting offensive linemen started all 17 games in 2023—a trend that the Bills coaching staff would like to continue in 2024.
With six seasons under his belt, Josh Allen’s stock has risen to a point that many consider him the greatest Bills quarterback of all time, challenging the formerly undisputed top QB, Jim Kelly.
But how does one assess greatness amongst two quarterbacks from two different eras? And how would one decipher what attributes make one quarterback better than another.
Recently, I took a deep-dive into both Jim Kelly and Josh Allen’s career. Through looking at both quarterbacks’ statistics, teammates and clutch performances; I hope to settle the debate once and for all.
Many base their opinions on their “eye test”—Josh Allen has a stronger arm, bigger frame, can run faster and do things that Jim Kelly never dreamed of.
There is no doubt that Josh Allen’s skillset is far superior to Jim Kelly’s.
However, Jim Kelly retired from the Bills in 1996 and Josh Allen’s Bills rookie campaign was 2018. In those 22 years there have been advances in technology, training and nutrition that all current NFL quarterbacks have enjoyed the fruits of.
Josh Allen is on pace to shatter Jim Kelly’s Bills passing yards (35,467) and passing touchdowns (237) marks. Allen needs only 12,764 passing yards and 70 passing touchdowns to surpass Kelly and this could very well happen in three to four seasons.
However, Jim Kelly had an atypical NFL career. He missed the 1983, 1984 and 1985 seasons—the first three of his career due to playing in the USFL so his career numbers are skewed. Kelly could have easily had an additional 10,000 yards and 75 touchdown passes had he played these seasons with the Bills.
Another big factor that one needs to consider in the Bills QB GOAT conversation is the weapons and protection that each quarterback was given.
It’s no coincidence that Josh Allen’s career took a giant step forward in 2020 when the Bills traded for All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs. But other than Diggs, the Bills have had mediocre at best talent for Josh Allen. And except for the 2023 season, the Bills offensive line has been average at best.
Jim Kelly already had Hall of Fame wide receiver, Andre Reed when he came into the league in 1986. Two years later, he was given another HOF’er, Thurman Thomas and then HOF’er, James Lofton in 1989. Kelly also played behind one the most consistent offensive lines in NFL history with the likes of Kent Hull, Howard Ballard, Jim Ritcher and Will Wolford.
Yes, the NFL was different in the 1980’s and 1990’s than it is today. The quarterbacks are much more protected now and pass catchers are given more liberties as well.
Keeping this in mind, the most objective way to compare Jim Kelly and Josh Allen statistically is to assess where they rank amongst their quarterback peers in the era that they played—not merely comparing statistics straight up.
This graphic shows Jim Kelly’s and Josh Allen’s rankings year by year in Yards Per Game, Touchdown Percentage, Interception Percentage and QB Rating.
Neither quarterback’s rankings amongst their peers stand out as being superior to the other.
In the Super Bowl years, Jim Kelly was among the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He finished second in MVP voting and was First-Team All-Pro in 1991. Kelly went to five Pro Bowls in six seasons from 1987-1992—back when a Pro Bowl nod meant something.
Josh Allen’s first two seasons were nothing spectacular, but starting in 2020, he turned a corner and is now regarded as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. Like Jim Kelly, Josh Allen finished second in MVP voting in 2020 and was selected to the Pro Bowl twice.
One negative similarity between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly is their knack for throwing interceptions. Allen finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in five of his six seasons. Kelly finished in the bottom half of the league in interception percentage in eight of his eleven seasons in the league.
There are two major differences between Josh Allen and Jim Kelly that likely gives Allen the Bills QB GOAT nod over Kelly.
First is Josh Allen’s rushing ability.
In five of his six seasons in the league, Josh Allen finished top-50 in the league in rushing yards per game and he’s been top-25 in the league in rushing touchdowns every season of his career (he was top 10 twice). Allen has carried his team on his back year after year.
Jim Kelly was your typical immobile ‘80’s and ‘90’s quarterback. He rushed for seven career touchdowns. Josh Allen doubled that LAST SEASON.
The second major difference that pushes Josh Allen past Jim Kelly is Allen’s clutch playoff performances.
In 17 career playoff games, Jim Kelly had a QB Rating of 72.3, had 21 combined touchdowns and 28 interceptions. You might be saying to yourself, “Yes, but Jim Kelly led his team to four Super Bowls.” Well, as mentioned earlier—Kelly had a lot of help, especially from a guy named Thurman Thomas who averaged 74 rush yards per game with 20 touchdowns in 18 career playoff games with Jim Kelly under center.
Josh Allen has played in 10 career playoff games. His QB Rating is 100.0 with 26 combined touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Have the Bills gotten to a Super Bowl? No—but don’t put that on Josh Allen. Except for one game where Gabe Davis shined against the Chiefs with four receiving touchdowns, Josh Allen put his Bills team on his back and willed them to victory with no other stand-out performances from any other offensive player.
Jim Kelly is in the Hall of Fame and he 100% deserves it. He’s known for his toughness and resiliency. Kelly had some incredible seasons with the Bills and they would not have made the Super Bowl runs that they made without him. However, if you look at all the factors—factors that make a quarterback great, Josh Allen has to get the nod for the Bills GOAT.
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