Bills Breakdown: Bills face Jets in New Jersey
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 19: Khalil Shakir #10 of the Buffalo Bills runs with the ball in the third quarter against the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium on November 19, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
The past two games haven’t been ideal for the Buffalo Bills with two losses. This week they have a good chance to bounce back. It’ll be their fourth prime-time game of the season as they go to New Jersey to play the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 6.
It’s an interesting game for the Jets as they will see what their team looks like under new leadership. With Robert Saleh being let go from his head coaching position, they’ll look to turn their slow start to the season around. The Bills will have to be prepared for a fired-up Jets team, as history shows teams usually play well the week after firing their head coach.
Injury report
- QB Josh Allen (Left Hand/Ankle) – No Designation (Full practice)
- LB Terrel Bernard (Pectoral) – No Designation (Full practice)
- RB James Cook (Toe) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
- RB Darrynton Evans (Hamstring) – UNSPECIFIED (Full Practice)
- LS Reid Ferguson (Elbow) – No Designation (Full practice)
- WR Mack Hollins (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
- CB Taron Johnson (Forearm) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
- DT Austin Johnson (Oblique) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
- DT DaQuan Jones (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
- TE Quintin Morris (Shoulder) – No Designation (Full practice)
- DT Ed Oliver (Hamstring) – OUT
- S Taylor Rapp (Concussion) – No Designation (Full practice)
- WR Curtis Samuel (Toe) – No Designation (Full practice)
- WR Khalil Shakir (Ankle) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
- EDGE Javon Solomon (Hip) – No Designation (Full practice)
- QB Mitchell Trubisky (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
- CB Michael Carter II (Back) – OUT
- OL Tyron Smith (Non-Injury/Vet Rest) – No Designation (Full practice)
- TE Tyler Conklin (Hip) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
- OL Morgan Moses (Knee) – No Designation (Full practice)
- LB C.J. Mosley (Toe) – QUESTIONABLE (Limited Practice)
- QB Aaron Rodgers (Ankle) – No Designation (Full practice)
- DL Leki Fotu (Hamstring) – No Designation (Full practice)
- LB Jamien Sherwood (Hand) – No Designation (Full practice)
Time to get back on track
After putting up over 30 points in each of their first three games this season, the Bills have combined for 30 points in their last two games. Josh Allen has struggled in the passing game, and it won’t get any easier this week. The Jets have been one of the best defenses against the pass as they have allowed 161.2 passing yards per game so far this season. The Bills receivers will need to step up as they have just one receiver with over 200 yards on the season (Khalil Shakir – 230). In fact, Shakir is the only receiver with a catch percentage over 65%.
A positive for Buffalo’s offense going into this game should be their run game. James Cook and company have averaged 4.3 yards per rushing play. However, Cook will be coming into this game a little banged up. This will give more looks to Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis. Davis will be a player to watch for as he averages 3.2 rushing yards after contact per carry. I’d expect the Bills to run the ball against a stacked box this Monday night as they rank 5th in the NFL in that category and the Jets defense ranks 22nd in that department.
The success of the Bills offense will come down to Allen’s ability to take care of the ball and the wide receivers’ ability to get separation. If Allen and the receivers can do both of those successfully, James Cook and Ray Davis should be able to move the ball with ease on the ground.
Slowly getting healthier
Despite Ed Oliver being ruled out, the Bills defense is slowly getting healthier. Terrel Bernard returned last week. This week Buffalo will see safety Taylor Rapp and cornerback Taron Johnson return to the lineup. It’s big news as the Jets offense could look a little bit different with the coaching changes. I’d expect the Bills secondary to shut down the Jets passing game. Through five games, the Jets have a -.13 EPA per pass. This bodes well for Buffalo as they’ve only allowed 215 passing yards per game.
The run game for the Jets haven’t been much better than the passing game so far. Despite having Breece Hall, they’ve averaged 80.4 rushing yards per game, which is dead last in the NFL. It’ll be a grudge match in the run game as the Bills have also struggled against the run so far this season. They’re giving up 144.0 rushing yards per game, 8th worst in the NFL. Taron Johnson coming back should help but they’ll still need rookie defensive tackle DeWayne Carter to step up in Ed Oliver’s absence once again.
This could be a game where the defense carries the Bills as they look to shut down Aaron Rodgers and company. It’s been a tough road for the Jets offense, so I’d expect them to turn the ball over a few times while struggling to find the endzone.
Gameday expectations
On paper, this game should be a low scoring game. That’s exactly what I expect. I think both defenses will play well and force some turnovers. It’ll come down to which offense can take care of the ball the best. The Bills are 2.0-point favorites over the Jets and the over/under is set at 44.5 total points. It could be a game that comes down to the wire with whichever team with the ball last winning. I’m going with a 21-16 Bills victory.
