Bills at Jaguars: Wild-card round preview

The sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills are set to take on the third-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC wild-card round. While Jacksonville is the higher seed and playing at home, Buffalo is slightly favored by 1.5.

The Bills are led by their number-one rushing attack with James Cook, against one of the NFL’s top run defenses. The Jaguars come into this one as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning eight straight games, while Buffalo has won five of their last six.

Game time: Sunday, January 11 at 1:00 PM Eastern time in Jacksonville, FL.

The 6 seed #Bills will face the 3 seed #Jaguars in Jacksonville!#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/J0BAO3HXW0
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 5, 2026

Keys to victory

Josh Allen

If the Bills want to compete with the Jaguars on the road, they will have to rely on a mistake-free game from quarterback Josh Allen. Allen has been playing well as of late, cutting down on some of his reckless plays and taking what the defense gives him.

In Allen’s last five games of the regular season, he recorded 959 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, and just one interception. He has been consistent and keeping the ball out of harm’s way, a trend he needs to continue through the playoffs.

Playoff Josh Allen LOADING….#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/DvwJTBt90G
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 9, 2026

Rushing attack

Cook finished the regular season as the league-leader in rushing yards. Cook has played great all season, playing fast and bouncing it outside for big gains. He finished the regular season with 309 attempts, the most of his career, going for 1,621 rushing yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns. Buffalo will lean on Cook’s continued success against the Jaguars’ number-one run defense.

James Cook: 2025 NFL RUSHING LEADER! 👨‍🍳#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/UUog2XjTc2
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 5, 2026

Tight end usage

The Bills tight ends need to be utilized in the wild-card round. Dawson Knox has been a reliable target for Allen, hauling in over 400 receiving yards this season and four touchdowns. On the other hand, Buffalo has Dalton Kincaid, who has only played in 12 games this season due to injury but finished with 571 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. The Bills need to involve both Knox and Kincaid in 12 personnel to open up the offense for Buffalo’s passing attack.

Josh Allen was nearly PERFECT when targeting Dalton Kincaid this season! ✅

What do you expect from Kincaid in the playoffs?#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/Y0vPjJh9FD
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 8, 2026

Defensive pressure

Buffalo’s ability to pressure Trevor Lawrence and keep him uncomfortable will be a key to their success in the Wild Card round. Lawrence enters the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak, throwing 19 touchdown passes to just five interceptions in those games. If he has a clean pocket, he has proved he can carve up a secondary. Getting pressure to Lawrence is a priority.

An area where the Bills may have an upper hand in this matchup is if the Jaguars are without LT Cole Van Lanen, who is currently questionable with a knee injury. The Bills will have to be fast off the line of scrimmage as Liam Coen’s fast-strike offense focuses on getting the ball out quick. With veteran edge rusher Joey Bosa paired along with Greg Rousseau, Buffalo has the pieces to disrupt Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game.

𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚: The #Bills defense has been LOCKED IN since Thanksgiving!#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/zakmBkQSS4
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) December 30, 2025

Areas of concern

Trevor Lawrence

The biggest factor that could deter Buffalo’s success in the first round of the postseason is Trevor Lawrence. He enters the playoffs on an eight-game win streak, playing fast and confident, which has turned Jacksonville into a threat in the AFC.

Jacksonville‘s pass-catchers

The Bills hold the number-one pass defense in the league but now face a strong Jaguars passing attack. With the addition of receiver Jakobi Meyers during the trade deadline, paired alongside Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington, the Jacksonville passing attack has been hot. The Bills’ number-one pass defense will have to show out on Sunday.

Third down

A recurring problem for the Bills defense has been their tendency to allow third down conversions. The Bills have a highly-ranked defense despite their continued tendency to allow opponents to extend drives in crucial situations on third down. This is a concern heading into Jacksonville as the Jaguars have great ball control. They lead the league in time of possession.

Kicking

One of the big concerns for the Bills in this matchup is their kicking situation, as Tyler Bass is out for the year and veteran Matt Prater listed as questionable with a quad injury. The instability at kicker has already cost the Bills points, notably in their one-point loss to the Eagles where a blocked extra point was costly. In a game that is projected to be close, a lack of reliability at any position can prove costly for the Bills.

𝗜𝗡𝗝𝗨𝗥𝗬 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘: After practicing in FULL yesterday, #Bills kicker Matt Prater DID NOT participate in practice today.#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/BFBjiXzkzc
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 9, 2026

Bills Injury Report

LB Terrel Bernard (Calf): DNP – OUT

CB Maxwell Hairston (Ankle): DNP – OUT

S Damar Hamlin (Pectoral): Limited – OUT

WR Joshua Palmer (Ankle): DNP – OUT

RB Ty Johnson (Ankle): DNP – OUT

K Matt Prater (Quad): DNP/Full – Questionable

LB Shaq Thompson (Neck): Limited – Questionable

𝗜𝗡𝗝𝗨𝗥𝗬 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘: #Bills CB Maxwell Hairston, S Damar Hamlin and LB Terrel Bernard are all OUT Sunday vs. the #Jaguars.#BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/vFG45wOYTJ
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 9, 2026

Jaguars Injury Report