Bills-Texans Week 1 Preview

On today’s episode of 1st and 5, Dave and Greg brought on Houston Texans’ digital beat reporter Landry Locker for a final preview of Sunday’s opener, then broke down how the Bills actually win it, including:

• The one injury that scrambles Buffalo’s game-day roster
• What a Texans insider really thinks of Houston’s offensive line
• Why even Houston sees Jim Leonhard as the game’s X-factor
• How the Bills protect Josh Allen and attack that defense
• Who’s going to win?

The One Injury That Scrambles Buffalo’s Roster

The injury report didn’t move much, but Ty Johnson still hasn’t practiced, and Greg doesn’t expect him for Sunday or the quick Thursday turnaround against Detroit. That one absence sets off a chain reaction, since the Bills only get a couple of practice-squad elevations. Greg Dortch is almost certainly one of them, which leaves a single spot to sort out between running back and receiver.

Dave’s add was that every roster move is tied to another. If Dee Alford tweaks something, Jordan Hancock is the next slot corner, so the Bills have to weigh who they can afford to dress. Neither loves Alford as the listed punt returner, and Dave’s advice there channels Micah Hyde, just field it cleanly and fair catch, and stop giving away the hidden yardage they will need in a low-scoring game.

How Texans Insider Landry Locker Assesses the Texans

Texans digital beat reporter Landry Locker joined from the stadium. Houston’s offensive line looks better than last year, he said, but he grades it on a curve, and he thinks the team’s best lineman might be rookie Keelan Rutledge. His bigger concern was Trent Brown at right tackle, a heavy, injury-prone veteran with no proven backup for the first month, and Landry said flatly that if even one Texans lineman goes down, the whole front gets shaky.

That matters, because Bradley Chubb has history getting after Trent Brown, and Buffalo’s edge rushers are exactly the kind of test Houston’s patchwork line hasn’t passed yet. On the ground, Landry wasn’t worried about the Texans’ run game, though he singled out rookie Woody Marks as the back to watch, a genuine weapon catching the ball out of the backfield.

Even Houston Sees Jim Leonhard as the X-Factor

Landry named the one thing he thinks decides this game, and it’s Jim Leonhard. Nobody has film on Buffalo’s new defense, and Landry went as far as saying that if Leonhard is as good as advertised, it changes the whole league, with the Super Bowl possibly running through Buffalo depending on what that unit becomes. That’s the reporter who covers the Texans saying it, two days before kickoff.

He isn’t sure which C.J. Stroud shows up, the strong rookie or the shaky second-year version, and he pointed to linebacker and slot coverage as the soft spot the Bills can attack with tight ends, backs, or DJ Moore matched up inside. When Dave asked the question he plans to put to every opposing reporter, whether Josh Allen is overrated, Landry didn’t hesitate. He called the idea crazy.

So who wins? Landry has the Bills collecting the W in a tight 20-17 game. 

You can find Landry’s Houston Texans content on S&L Texans Talk and The Locker Room With Landry Locker.  

How Do the Bills Beat the Texans?

Back to the Bills, Greg’s top key is dead simple, and it’s pass blocking. He isn’t asking for zero sacks, just a competent pocket so Josh Allen isn’t running for his life, and the Texans can’t sit a spy on him all afternoon.

Dave wants Buffalo to finally throw to its running backs, James Cook and Ray Davis, and to get a sixth offensive lineman involved, the exact things the Bills abandoned in last year’s eight-sack disaster. Both agreed the offense should take what’s there and stop force-feeding DJ Moore or Keon Coleman into a breakout that isn’t on the menu.

On defense, Greg’s key is keeping the Texans’ running backs in check, and his logic is that it trickles down. Stop the backs, and Leonhard can pick his spots to attack instead of blitzing out of desperation, which keeps young corners like Maxwell Hairston and IGB off an island. Dave wants pressure that makes Stroud uncomfortable, and he expects a big day from Ed Oliver, finally turned loose to play fast instead of anchoring the nose.

Everyone Picked Buffalo

For all the caution, nobody on the show picked against the Bills. Greg went 27-17. He thinks the eight-sack game was an anomaly and that DJ Moore opens up the middle of the field, and he expects one blown coverage and a Nico Collins deep ball along the way.

Dave went 23-20 on a long Tyler Bass game-winner, his hunch that Bass bounces back, in a low-scoring fight where Buffalo has the ball last. Landry made it unanimous at 20-17 Bills. The names to watch, in their eyes, are Keon Coleman and Josh Allen’s poise for Greg, and Dalton Kincaid and a turned-loose Ed Oliver for Dave.

Wrapping Up

Where do you have it, and do you trust the offensive line to keep Josh Allen upright against that Houston front?

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