Bills-Raiders Preview: What Will Happen in Vegas?

The Bills roll into Las Vegas on Sunday at 4-1, heavy favorites over a 3-2 Raiders team that is openly rebuilding, and it’s the last game before the bye. On paper it’s a get-right spot, especially for a defense that just got carved up by the Rams. The whole week, though, came with a caution about looking past a team like this. Dave and Greg broke down the matchup and brought on Raiders beat writer Hondo Carpenter of SI to preview this game.

• Why the run game is Buffalo’s clearest edge
• The pass rush that could test the Bills’ line
• What the defense has to prove against Brock Bowers
• The upset path a Raiders insider laid out
• Where the injury report stands before the bye

Will James Cook Run Wild Against the Raiders?

The matchup the show kept coming back to is the Bills’ run game against a soft Raiders front. Buffalo has been the best in the league at yards before contact since 2021, and this year the Raiders are the worst at surrendering it. That points to a heavy dose of James Cook, and Greg wants to see him get 25 or more carries, with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson mixed in.

The Cook talk this week has been about his fumbles, and Greg’s issue is the timing more than the fumbles themselves. Cook put two on the ground against the Rams, one of them in overtime, but he was the league’s leading rusher a year ago, and the good far outweighs the giveaways. Greg doesn’t want fewer carries or a benching. He wants two hands on the ball when the game is on the line.

Can the Bills Protect Josh Allen?

The one thing that could complicate that plan is the Raiders’ pass rush. Las Vegas gets after the quarterback as well as anyone, ranking near the top of the league in both pressure rate and sack rate, with Max Crosby as the headliner. Greg called controlling that rush his top key. Protect Josh Allen, and the Bills should move the ball on a defense that doesn’t have the talent to hang with them otherwise.

There’s also the question of how much Allen runs. He carried the offense with his legs against the Rams, and that’s not something the show wants to lean on every week. The Patriots loss showed the other side of it, when a banged-up knee kept Allen in the pocket, and the offense stalled. Hondo agreed that running him like that isn’t sustainable. The Bills also stayed out West for the short week instead of flying home and back, which Dave and Greg both read as a smart call.

Can the Bills Defense Slow Down Brock Bowers?

This is where the show spent most of its energy. The Raiders are a passing team, near the bottom of the league in rushing, and with rookie running back Ashton Jeanty banged up, the weight falls on a Buffalo pass defense that just let Puka Nacua run free all night. Tight end Brock Bowers is the Raiders’ entire receiving operation, out front in targets and yards by a wide margin, and the two want an actual plan for him this time rather than the no-plan that let Nacua go off.

The other half is Kirk Cousins. He’s playing well through five games, but Dave and Greg don’t trust it, pointing to a long history of strong starts that fade into forced throws and bad picks. Cousins won’t beat anyone with his legs, so the plan is to collapse the pocket early and often and make him uncomfortable, the same way pressure flustered Matthew Stafford. Greg Rousseau leads the NFL in pressures and is due to turn some into sacks. With the bye on the other side of this game, both see it as the week to finally mix in new blitz looks and give the back end some help.

How Could the Raiders Upset the Bills?

Hondo Carpenter, who covers the Raiders for SI, laid out the blueprint for an upset. The way to beat the Bills, he said, is to spy Allen with a big, fast defender like Quay Walker or Jeremy Chinn and sell out to stop the run, which forces him to win from the pocket. Keep Allen under 50 rushing yards, and Carpenter thinks the Raiders have a real shot.

His bigger warning was about Buffalo. Carpenter said the Bills tend to play up or down to their competition, and if they let a rebuilding team hang around into the fourth quarter, that is how the upset happens. He still expects the Bills to win, putting it at seven times out of ten, as long as they treat Sunday like a business trip instead of a gimme.

Buffalo Bills Injuries That Matter

Buffalo’s report is relatively clean for Week 6, and the biggest name is DJ Moore, who has missed time with a shoulder and looks likely to sit again and use the bye to get right. You can track his status on the BIB injury report.

Ed Oliver is working back from an MCL sprain and could also rest with the bye coming. Joshua Palmer’s shoulder is trending toward good-to-go, while Dee Alford’s ankle is still a question. Christian Benford’s toe from the Rams game should benefit from the week, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s knee scare on Monday looked worse live than it turned out to be. He practiced this week.

Bills or Raiders. Who’s Going to Win?

Both Dave and Greg came out on the Bills, and neither thought it would be close.

• Dave: Bills 34-13. He wants the defense to finally get home against Kirk Cousins, with Rousseau due to break his sack drought and Bradley Chubb playing angry after the scrum with the Rams.
• Greg: Bills 27-13. A touch lighter on the offense, but the same comfortable result.
• Hondo: Bills by two scores. The better team on the field, as long as they don’t let the Raiders hang around.

Bills-Raiders: It’s Time to Play the Game

Buffalo is the better team by a wide margin, and if the Bills run the ball and keep Josh upright, they should walk into the bye at 5-1. The danger with the Bills is that the team sometimes plays down to their opponent.

Is this the week the defense finally takes a step forward, or does a rebuilding Raiders team hang around longer than it should?

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