Bills-Jets Preview: Can Buffalo Start 8-1 for the First Time Since 1991?

The Buffalo Bills visit MetLife Stadium on Sunday at 7-1, one win away from their first 8-1 start since 1991. The Jets are 2-7, but five of those losses came by one score, and they were within two points of Kansas City at halftime last week before the Chiefs ran away with a 21-0 second half.

Buffalo gets them on a short week after Monday night’s win in Minnesota, with a banged-up offensive line and a new safety, Amani Hooker, who arrived from Tennessee this week. Here’s what stood out heading into Sunday:

• Why the Jets’ run defense could decide this one early
• Is this the week Dalton Kincaid gets fed?
• A real test for a young Bills secondary
• How quickly Amani Hooker can help
• A doubtful tackle and a rookie pass rusher
• Score predictions, including one from a Jets voice in New York

Can the Jets Stop James Cook?

The Jets rank 26th in the league against the run at 128 yards a game, and they’ve allowed close to 140 a game over their last three. Kansas City threw its way into a two-point halftime game last week, then handed the ball off after the break and outscored New York 21-0. Jake Asman, who hosts The Jake Asman Show on YouTube and works for 880AM ESPN New York, would run the same plan if he were Joe Brady, and he expects Cook to clear his rushing total with Josh Allen adding yards on the edge.

New York holds up better against the pass, allowing fewer than 200 yards a game, so the ground game is Buffalo’s clearest path. Leaning on Cook has a cost, though, since he already has six games of 20-plus carries this season after eight all of last year. Buffalo also held the ball for 45 minutes in Minnesota, and Dave wants him fresh for January.

A 25-carry Cook game almost always means a Bills win, Dave argued, because those carries pile up in the fourth quarter with a lead. Ball control also cuts down the number of possessions, and one fumble like the one at the 1-yard line in Minnesota can flip a game that never got away. Greg would rather the Bills put the Jets away early through the air and save the grinding for Ray Davis and Ty Johnson in the second half.

Is This the Week Dalton Kincaid Gets Fed?

Dawson Knox has 23 catches for 243 yards and three touchdowns in 11 career games against the Jets, and Kincaid has 25 catches for 232 yards in six, a track record that fits how Brady has used his tight ends at MetLife.

Kincaid leads the Bills with 429 receiving yards and ranks first in the NFL in yards per route run, wide receivers included, yet he’s had recent games with two and three targets. Dave thinks eight to 10 a game should be the baseline. Forcing it hasn’t worked either, since Kincaid’s eight targets against the Raiders produced just 38 yards on a string of short throws, and Greg wants the ball going to whoever is open.

Buffalo’s pass catchers also sit in a bad spot on a chart that tracks pressure allowed against receiver separation, grouped with a cluster of non-playoff teams. Greg sees that as the profile a good man-coverage team exposes in January.

DJ Moore hasn’t had a big game since early in the season, and Dave thinks one is coming. Greg would rather the Bills work inside out, beating the Jets underneath with Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and the tight ends until the safeties creep down and leave Moore room.

Can the Bills Secondary Handle Geno Smith’s Receivers?

The Jets rank fifth in completion percentage at just under 68 percent and 10th in yards per attempt at nearly eight, and Asman said they lead the NFL in receiver separation. After back-to-back games against backup quarterbacks, this is the toughest test Buffalo’s young secondary has seen in weeks.

Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson should play together for the first time since Week 3, with Wilson expected to clear the concussion protocol. First-round picks Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq give Smith more options, and Adonai Mitchell leads the team at 16 yards per catch. Wilson against Christian Benford and Cooper against Davison Igbinosun are the matchups Dave is watching.

Smith holds the ball longer than any quarterback in the league, which gives Buffalo’s pass rush a chance. Greg Rousseau entered Week 10 leading the NFL with 51 pressures, and Michael Hoecht has started to look more like himself beside him.

New York’s offense also stalls past midfield, ranking first in offensive EPA before the 50 and 31st after it, and the Jets are last in red zone touchdown percentage. Buffalo can live with yards between the 20s, but explosive plays and missed tackles are what got this defense gashed early in the season.

How Quickly Can Amani Hooker Help the Bills Defense?

Buffalo acquired Hooker from Tennessee this week and has him under contract through this season and two more. Titans coach Robert Saleh has called him one of the best communicators he’s coached, and having played under several coordinators in recent years should help him get on the field quickly, likely on a snap count or in certain packages with Damar Hamlin still in the mix.

Hooker’s fast track cuts against the communication excuse that followed this defense through the first half of the season, when the complexity of Jim Leonhard’s system took the blame for blown coverages. Now a player with four days in the building is expected to contribute. Greg is done with that excuse and wants the defense judged on its play from here.

Buffalo ranks sixth in total defense and 16th in points allowed, with Leonhard now coaching from the booth and C.J. Gardner-Johnson gone, a move Dave called addition by subtraction. By Greg’s math, a defense around 20th is enough to win with this offense.

Buffalo Bills Injuries That Matter

Spencer Brown didn’t practice Friday and is doubtful with the ankle he rolled in Minnesota, which likely leaves a backup facing David Bailey. The Jets’ rookie, the No. 2 overall pick, has 7.5 sacks and five forced fumbles in eight games, and New York ranks fifth in blitz rate. Tylan Grable may give up a sack or two in that matchup, but Greg doesn’t expect it to change the game.

Dion Dawkins (rib) and Alec Anderson (ankle) both practiced Friday. Kyle Trimble of Banged Up Bills believes Dawkins is dealing with rib cartilage, which comes down to pain management rather than an IR stint, and he leaned toward Anderson playing through a high ankle sprain. He isn’t worried about Connor McGovern’s neck or Kincaid’s ankle.

Christian Benford’s wrist X-rays were negative, and Trimble expects him to play with extra taping. Greg Gaines (calf) has a chance if he logs a full practice. Track the latest on the Bills injury report.

Bills or Jets. Who’s Going to Win?

• Greg: Bills 34-20
• Dave: Bills 31-14
• Jake Asman: Bills 35-17

Greg expects a balanced game with a deep touchdown to Moore and a few more carries for Ty Johnson. Dave expects the pass rush to rattle Smith into a couple of bad throws and Allen to be in a baseball cap for part of the fourth quarter. Asman, a diehard Jets fan rooting for a high draft pick, expects Buffalo to ease off late.

Greg’s hot take has Coleman catching seven passes for 80 yards, well above his three catches a game, and Dave has Hooker picking off a pass in his Bills debut. Dave also thinks the Jets intercept Allen, who has gone five straight games without one, even though New York has a single interception all season.

Bills vs. Jets: Who Has the Edge?

Bills-Jets: It’s Time to Play the Game

MetLife has given Allen trouble over the years, but the Jets defenses that frustrated him were Saleh’s units at their peak. This one has allowed 33.7 points a game over its last three, and Asman, who calls the Jets the worst-coached team in the league, expects Buffalo to score 30-plus. A halftime lead and a Cook-driven fourth quarter would send the Bills home at 8-1 with Miami up next.

Do the Bills lean on Cook and the run game Sunday, or does Brady try to bury the Jets through the air early?

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