Betting Bills with Ben: Week 13, Bills at Patriots

We’re back for another installment of Betting Bills with Ben. This week, the Bills take on the New England Patriots on Thursday Night in what is sure to be another close game and classic AFC East showdown. The Bills come in at 8-3 while the Patriots are 6-5. This is a critical game for both teams in the playoff picture.

Let’s take a look at the lines that you should be on this week.

I am straying away from the Bills spread this week. They have failed to cover in their last 5 games and with it being a divisional away spot, taking the favorite here is always risky. So I’d rather stick with a few props that I think are going to be good.

Stefon Diggs Touchdown (+120)

Diggs to score a touchdown this year has been making you money if you’re betting it. He has nine touchdowns through 11 weeks this year and Diggs has of course been known to torch the New England Patriots. However, with cornerback JC Jackson gone, I just think Diggs is all the more likely to breakout.

Rhamondre Stevenson Under 61.5 rush yards

On the flip side, we’re going under on Rhamondre Stevenson’s yards here. The Bills have recently shown they are more than capable of shutting down the run. They only allowed 19 yards to Nick Chubb, one of the best running backs in the league, and they only allowed 96 total rushing yards against a good Lions rushing attack on 28 carries. That’s right about three and a half yards per carry.

The Patriots are going to try to run the ball against the Bills, but if the Bills get out to a fast lead the Patriots will be required to abandon the run game and thus Stevenson getting shorted on carries. It’s not going to be like last year when the Patriots can just try to run the ball on us every play.

Josh Allen Over 40+ rush yards

We’re going with Josh Allen rushing yards. Whenever we think Allen is going to slow down on running the ball, we’re wrong. He rushed for a team-high 78 yards last week against the Lions and for him to get more than 40 here seems like two or three solid runs which he is absolutely capable of getting. In a game with a premier pass rusher like Matthew Judon, Allen is going to have to show some escapability and I think he gets 40 rushing yards here.

Bills First Half -2.5

Instead of full game spread, the spread we’re going to take is the first half. The Bills have covered the 1H spread in three of their last five games, and with a small number like 2.5, I can’t help myself. You’re telling me we only have to be up by a field goal at half over Mac Jones? I’ll take it.

I’m expecting the Bills to start fast as I’m sure in their game plan they want to shut down the Patriots run game and force Mac into obvious passing situations. Game flow here is indicating that the Bills should get a half time lead, and if that is even just by a field goal, that cashes the bet.

Devin Singletary Over 66.5 rushing + receiving yards

We know the Bills have been running the ball effectively recently, which is awesome to see, and the Bills are going to need Singletary to come through in a big way. He’s been excellent recently, and with Morse coming back, that is also a big boost for this offensive line.

Another reason I like it is because the Patriots tend to play a lot of zone coverage to take away stuff down the field for Josh the past couple times they’ve played, leaving a lot of room for dinking and dunking over the middle.

Singletary has gotten at least 13 touches in the last three games and he has been very good when he has had the ball in his hands. I expect him to get this number with both rushing and receiving yards fairly easily.

Thank you all for reading. I hope we can start the week off right with some extra money in your pocket. This will be the week the Bills get right again, I can feel it. Let’s cash together! Go Bills!