Bills vs Steelers – Wild Card Preview and Keys to Victory
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
It’s that time of year again. The Bills are headed into the Playoffs as the 2nd seed and AFC East Champions after ripping off 5 straight wins, including a win against Miami in week 18 to clinch the division. In their Wild Card matchup as the 2nd seed, the Bills are facing up against the 7th seed Steelers who snuck into the playoffs with a win in week 18, and some help from other teams around the league.
Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph are facing off as the Steelers come into Buffalo for their first playoff game since 2021 where they lost in the Wild Card. This is Buffalo’s 5th consecutive year in the playoffs, coming off a brutal divisional round loss to the Bengals last year. Mason Rudolph will be starting in his 4th consecutive game after taking over for a flawed Mitch Trubisky and an injured Kenny Pickett. Rudolph will be looking to cement himself as Pittsburgh’s starter for the future and a win to propel them into the Divisional Round. Josh Allen is looking to simply win the game to move on and get closer to the much-awaited first Super Bowl of the Allen Era.
Game Odds
The Bills are heavy 10-point favorites in the latest Bills vs Steelers odds, expected to win by 2 scores or more. The over/under for the game is placed at 36 which could easily be passed, or not passed because of some nasty weather.
Game Conditions
The weather conditions in Buffalo are expected to be less than ideal. Various weather forecasts are calling for sustained winds between 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-60 mph. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s at game time and feels like the temperature could be below 0. The potential for snowstorms is also there with the ever-inconvenient lake effect snow band entering the Orchard Park area.
Crucial Injuries
The Bills had some critical injuries during the week 18 game vs Miami. Top corner Rasul Douglas went down with a knee injury. Fill-in linebacker Tyrel Dodson left the game with a shoulder injury. Pro Bowl Left Tackle Dion Dawkins left with a hand laceration. Safety Taylor Rapp suffered a Calf injury after the game-sealing interception. Running Back Ty Johnson was pulled out after suffering a concussion, and finally, WR Gabe Davis was forced out with a now-diagnosed PCL sprain.
I expect most of these players to be a go. In playoff time it is not unusual to push through an injury as long as it does not critically affect their on-field play. However, do not be surprised if some of these guys sit out this week, especially Gabe Davis, Ty Johnson and Rasul Douglas.
The Steelers lost All-Pro edge rusher TJ Watt to a sprained MCL in week 18 which leaves him unable to play in the Wild Card matchup which is huge for Buffalo. The Steelers also have RB Najee Harris, LB Elandon Roberts, and G Isaac Semualo listed on their injury report with Harris and Semualo not practicing at all. The Steelers also recently activated Safety Damonte Kazee who was suspended for 4 games during the regular season, expect him to start.
Keys to a Buffalo Victory
The key to Buffalo winning this game is to shut down the Steelers run game and limit their pass rush. The Steelers focal point on offense for the past 3 weeks has been to feed Najee Harris and allow Mason Rudolph to game-manage and they both have delivered. Harris has totaled 72 carries, 315 yards, and 4 touchdowns in the final 3 games of the season and has been a main reason for their success. If the Bills can slow him down and force Rudolph to throw and play from behind, the Bills should be in a good spot.
However, this is no knock on Rudolph who has been incredibly efficient when called upon to throw during his starting stretch. He boasts a 120.4 passer rating, 716 yards, and 3 touchdowns in this stretch with 0 interceptions. The Bills need to force the Steelers into awkward passing situations and cause Rudolph to make some mistakes.
The Steelers also have a strong pass rush even without TJ Watt. They have some players who can wreck the game if given a chance. Markus Golden, Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward and Nate Herbig are strong pass rushers and run stoppers. The Bills offensive line needs to shut down this pass rush and get a strong push on the line of scrimmage on run plays to keep the Bills in rhythm, and the Steelers on their heels.
