Bills-Patriots Week 4 Recap: Should Buffalo Be Worried?

The Bills had this one and let it go. Buffalo led 26-21 in the fourth quarter, then watched the Patriots score a late touchdown and two-point conversion to drop the game 29-26. It’s the first loss of the season, the first under Joe Brady, and it dropped the Bills to 3-1 while confirming every worry that had been building for two weeks. On today’s episode of 1st and 5, Dave and Greg worked through a frustrating Monday, including:

• Why the offense suddenly looks like last year
• The Joe Brady question Buffalo has to answer
• What’s really going on with Josh Allen
• How bad this defense actually is
• Where the Bills go from 3-1

What Happened to the Offense?

For two weeks, the Bills offense looked like the best in football. The last two, it’s looked like the one fans spent all of last year complaining about. The mesh concept is back. The receiver screens on third down are back. The run up the middle on first-and-goal outside the 5 is back. None of it worked a year ago, and none of it worked Sunday.

The Patriots had a plan, and it was the same one the Chargers used the week before. Take Dalton Kincaid away and dare the rest of the offense to beat you. Kincaid finished with one catch for 7 yards. DJ Moore left with a shoulder injury late in the first half, which only made it easier. Without Moore pulling the top off the defense, nobody else got open enough to matter.

This is the blueprint now. The Chargers built it, the Patriots copied it, and the Rams are next. Right now the Bills don’t have an answer.

Is Joe Brady the Problem?

This one starts with the head coach. Dave’s framing was blunt. For two weeks the Bills have looked unprepared, and on Sunday Mike Vrabel out-coached Joe Brady. But it’s bigger than one game. It doesn’t appear he’s adapting. Buffalo lost DJ Moore in Week 1 and again Sunday, and the offense fell apart both times. Three games in, and there’s still no plan for life without Moore. Greg handed the game plan an F-minus.

Buffalo won the toss and took the ball. The offense went three-and-out, and the Patriots answered with a 97-yard touchdown drive. Dave would have kicked it and tried to make a defensive stand. Greg wanted the ball to squeeze an extra possession out of Josh Allen. Either way, taking it and going three-and-out was the worst outcome.

There’s a rational counter, and Greg made it himself. Brady is a first-year head coach now running the whole operation, not just the offense. The roster is banged up, the defense is a sieve, and Allen appears hurt. And the Bills still led this game late. But almost isn’t the standard, and the longer the offense looks like last year, the louder this question gets.

»» Were there any positives? Find out in this week’s Stock up/down

How Worried Should We Be About Josh Allen?

Two weeks ago, Josh Allen was the runaway MVP. In the last two games, he’s looked like a different quarterback. On Sunday, he went 23 of 33 for 253 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He’s forcing throws, missing his second and third reads, and pressing to make a play happen.

His health is a big piece of it. Allen took a hard shot to the knee against the Chargers, and it showed. He carried it five times for 4 yards, and the burst that usually bails out a broken play wasn’t there. His one highlight on the ground was a 2-yard touchdown run that tied the game at 14 in the first half and broke the franchise record for touchdowns from scrimmage, passing Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed. Even that came on a day his legs clearly weren’t right.

The two biggest throws of his night both went the wrong way. On the two-point try that would have pushed the lead to seven, Kincaid leaked wide open in front of Allen, and he never looked, locking onto a covered Josh Palmer instead. The throw fell incomplete. Then, with the game on the line and a minute left, Allen spun out of a sack and went deep for Palmer again. The pass was underthrown and picked off by Craig Woodson to end Buffalo’s night. Allen owned it afterward, saying he should have thrown it away and lived another play.

Greg still defends him. Allen wins games no other quarterback in Bills history has, and every quarterback throws picks. The frustration is that he’s doing too much because he feels like he has to.

Why Won’t the Bills Feed James Cook?

The one thing that worked Sunday was James Cook, and Buffalo barely used him. Cook finished with 75 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, a steady 6 a pop. Then the Bills went away from it. The counter to a blanketed receiver group was sitting right there, and Buffalo left it there again.

Keon Coleman was the bright spot. With DJ Moore out, Keon won his one-on-ones against the Patriots’ backup corners and went for 116 yards and a touchdown on six catches, including a 34-yard score that put Buffalo ahead 26-21 in the fourth. He’s quietly put together a good stretch. A number-two receiver having a big day shouldn’t be the offense’s best answer. And Khalil Shakir’s lost fumble was one of the mistakes that kept the Patriots in it.

Is This Defense Fixable?

The defense was the bigger problem, and it’s the same one it’s been all year. The back end got beaten when it mattered most. With the game on the line, the Patriots went 73 yards and won it on a 23-yard touchdown, a one-handed grab by Efton Chism with Maxwell Hairston in coverage. Dave had talked Hairston up just a week ago off his early numbers. There was nothing to talk up on Sunday. Drake Maye came in with six interceptions and nothing going. Against this group, he threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns.

The front couldn’t bail them out. Greg Rousseau and Deone Walker were good again, and the Bills forced two Maye turnovers in the first half. But the pass rush went quiet on the drives that decided the game, and Maye stood in clean pockets. A shaky quarterback got comfortable.

Underneath it all is a roster problem. The help this defense needs isn’t in the building. Greg wants Shaq Thompson signed and on the field, wants to see more of the young players, and wants Terrel Bernard’s spot earned rather than assumed. This was the plan Buffalo went into the season with, and four games in, the plan isn’t working.

Your Thoughts

None of this is a reason to jump off a ledge. The Bills are 3-1, still right in the division race, and a lot of what’s broken is new. First-year head coach, first-year coordinator, banged-up stars. But the schedule gets harder from here, starting with a trip to the Rams on Monday night, and the problems aren’t fixing themselves. Is this a two-week slump that passes, or the real version of a team that isn’t as close as September made it look?

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