Bills-Rams Preview: Can Buffalo Bounce Back?

The Bills come into Monday night off their first loss, and the Rams waiting for them are loaded on paper but beatable in a few specific ways. Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford, two recent MVPs, headline a game Vegas expects to turn into a shootout. We cover.

• What’s gone wrong for a loaded Rams offense
• The one place the Rams keep beating themselves
• Whether this is finally a James Cook game
• The real story on Josh Allen’s knee and DJ Moore’s shoulder
• Who wins, and the score the Rams’ side expects

What’s Wrong With the Rams Offense?

The Rams have an MVP quarterback, two all-pro receivers, and a Pro Bowl back, and none of it has come together. Ian Martinez, who covers the team and hosts the Rams Up Podcast, blames Sean McVay for refusing to lean on the run. Kyren Williams is averaging better than 5 yards a carry, yet McVay has his 38-year-old quarterback throwing close to 100 times over the last two weeks, enough that Rams fans have started calling him Sean McPass.

Stafford hasn’t helped, forcing more throws this year than he did on his way to the MVP, even though he can still pick apart zone coverage as well as anyone. Ian’s read is that a steadier run game would turn all the yards the Rams pile up into the points they keep leaving on the field.

Where the Rams Keep Beating Themselves

The Rams’ linebackers can’t cover. Nate Landman holds up against the run while he plays through a shoulder injury, but the inside guys are a liability in coverage, which pushes the Rams into a lot of nickel and dime with extra defensive backs on the field. Catch one of them on a tight end or a back, and that’s a down Buffalo wins.

Special teams has been even worse. The Rams rank near the bottom of the league in just about every metric there, their kicker has lost McVay’s trust to the point that he’d rather go for it on fourth down than send him out, and the return game leaves the offense buried in its own end drive after drive. Ian kept coming back to it, because in a game this close the hidden yards and the missed points could be the whole difference.

Up front, the Rams’ interior line held up against Philadelphia, but even Ian trusts his guards and center more than his tackles, and pressure up the middle is how you rattle a 38-year-old who isn’t moving in the pocket. That’s exactly where Deone Walker does his damage.

Is This Finally a James Cook Game?

Buffalo’s cleanest path runs through James Cook, who leads the NFL in carries of 10-plus yards. The Rams can be run on if you commit to it, and Dave and Greg both want Cook fed early and often, on the ground and out of the backfield, with Dave putting the number at 25 touches however they come.

The run only matters if Joe Brady lets it. For two weeks, his offense has looked like last year’s, heavy on bubble screens and mesh concepts with no counter when a defense takes Dalton Kincaid away. Greg wants the ball spread around, easy early completions to settle Josh Allen in, and some real creativity instead of the same handful of checks. It’s the first time Brady has run an offense as a head coach against someone like Sean McVay, and both see it as a measuring-stick night for him.

The Rams will come after Allen with interior pressure of their own now that Aaron Donald is healthy, so the line has to hold up. At receiver, Joshua Palmer is out, and rookie Skyler Bell is active for the first time. Greg isn’t expecting much from him, though Dave thinks the lack of any film on Bell could be worth a few early targets. Both keep coming back to Khalil Shakir, who beats press coverage as well as any receiver in the league and deserves more than the tunnel screens he keeps getting.

Can the Bills Slow Down Matt Stafford?

Stafford is the matchup that should scare Buffalo. The Bills play man coverage on only about 14% of their snaps, and he feasts on zone. Ian expects the Rams to work the space between the zones all night, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams over the middle and Kyren Williams out of the backfield, and he’s betting they hit the Puka Nacua bunch screen early, a play they run as well as anybody.

Greg wants Jim Leonhard to finally change something. Show seven at the line and disguise the coverage. Bring a linebacker and get the ball out of Stafford’s hands before his receivers uncover. More soft zone while the back end gets torched is the one thing Greg says he can’t stomach four weeks into a season where the communication still isn’t right. Dave is more patient about it, pointing out that the corners have mostly been beaten by second and third options rather than true number ones, and that the interceptions they keep just missing have to start falling eventually.

Either way, the front is where Buffalo tilts it. Greg Rousseau has been excellent, and Deone Walker is the key again, because interior pressure is what knocks Stafford off his spot. Ed Oliver is out, so T.J. Sanders makes his season debut, and Greg would like to see veteran Shaq Thompson elevated to give a young defense a steadier voice.

Buffalo Bills Injuries That Matter

Josh Allen isn’t on the injury report, so he’s officially fine, but he hasn’t run in two weeks after taking shots to the knee in back-to-back games. Lose his legs, and Buffalo loses the off-script plays that make the whole thing go, which is why Greg expects a designed quarterback run on the opening drive just to make the Rams respect them.

DJ Moore could swing the whole game. He aggravated a shoulder injury against the Patriots and barely practiced all week, and Banged Up Bills injury analyst Kyle Trimble broke it down as an AC joint problem Moore is masking with pain-relieving shots, the kind of thing that eventually needs rest instead of another needle. Greg’s gut says Moore guts it out until the bye, even though the smart play is probably to sit him, because Buffalo has almost no chance without him.

Christian Benford is back from a toe injury and expected to play, while Dee Alford is trending the other way and rookie Jalon Kilgore should see time at safety.

What Actually Decides This Game?

It comes down to Buffalo’s coaches as much as its stars. Joe Brady has to build an offense that doesn’t stall the second the Rams take away the first read, and Jim Leonhard has to find pressure on Stafford and disguise enough to protect a secondary that can’t survive on islands. The special-teams edge Ian flagged is the quiet one, because the field position the Rams keep handing away can decide a three-point game by itself. If the two coaches adapt, Buffalo should be in it late. If they don’t, this turns into the track meet the Rams are built for.

Bills or Rams. Who’s Going to Win?

Nobody picked a blowout, the guest included.

Ian, Rams by a field goal, around 41-38. He leaned Los Angeles but wouldn’t be shocked to see Buffalo pull it out.

Greg, Bills 27-20, if DJ Moore plays and Leonhard actually changes something. If Moore sits, he flips to Rams 34-17.

Dave, Bills 35-31, with Buffalo getting the ball last and having to score to win it.

And the Rams have never held a Josh Allen Bills team under 31 points in three tries, which is why even Ian, picking his own team, isn’t comfortable.

Bills-Rams: It’s Time to Play the Game

A loss here drops the Bills into second place in the AFC East, with a shaky secondary about to face two of the best receivers in football. Does Buffalo bounce back and stay in the hunt for the one seed, or does a Monday-night shootout show how far this team still has to go?

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