First-career starts haven’t been kind to rookie QBs lately

It was announced earlier this week that Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett will make his first NFL start this Sunday when Pittsburgh travels to Buffalo to take on the Bills and their No. 1 ranked pass defense.

The last rookie QB to beat the league’s No. 1 pass defense in his first career start was Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 with the Steelers.

Pickett will be the first rookie quarterback to start an NFL game this season, and if recent history has anything to say about it, things might get ugly for the Steelers.

Head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier have faced off against 11 rookie quarterbacks as leaders of the Bills defense, and the Bills have gone 8-3 in those games. Here are the numbers that were posted by the rookie QBs in those contests:

And if that doesn’t sound bad enough for Pickett and the Steelers, let’s take a look at the numbers of the last 10 rookie QBs to make their first start in the NFL.

10/10/21 – Trey Lance, San Francisco @ Arizona (L 10-17): 15-29 (51.72%) 192 yards, 0 TD/1 INT

9/26/21 – Justin Fields, Chicago @ Cleveland (L 6-26): 6-20 (30%) 68 yards, 0 TD/1 INT

9/23/21 – Davis Mills, Houston vs Carolina (L 9-24): 19-28 (67.86%) 168 yards, 1 TD/0 INT

9/12/21 – Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville @ Houston (L 21-37): 28-51 (54.9%) 332 yards, 3 TD/3 INT

9/12/21 – Zach Wilson, NYJ @ Carolina (L 14-19): 20-37 (54.05%) 258 yards, 2 TD/1 INT

9/12/21 – Mac Jones, New England vs Miami (L 16-17): 29-39 (74.36%) 281 yards, 1 TD/0 INT

12/13/20 – Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia vs Saints (W 24-21): 17-30 (56.67%) 167 yards, 1 TD/0 INT

11/1/20 – Tua Tagovailoa, Miami vs LA Rams (W 28-17): 12-22 (54.55%) 93 yards, 1 TD/0 INT

9/20/20 – Justin Herbert, LA Chargers vs Kansas City (L 20-23): 22-33 (66.67%) 311 yards, 1 TD/1 INT

9/13/20 – Joe Burrow, Cincinnati vs Chargers (L 13-16): 23-36 (63.89%) 193 yards, 0TD/1INT

In the last ten first-career starts for rookie QBS, there have been eight losses and only two wins. Their average statistical output in those games was: 19-33 (58.8%) 206 yards 1 TD/1 INT.

Pickett entered last week’s game against the Jets in relief of Mitchell Trubisky in the second half and went 10-13 for 120 yards and 3 interceptions in a losing effort.

The Bills have allowed a league-best 150.75 yards passing per game in their first four games this season and have played some of the best quarterbacks in the league including Matt Stafford and Lamar Jackson. You gotta think they’ll be chomping at the bit to face the rookie on Sunday.