Sabres Offseason Grades: What Happened, What’s Next, and What It All Means

I flew into town that morning, and as I sat behind Lukkonen, watching the puck hit the netting, the disappointment coursed through my body. All the elation I felt watching the Sabres claw back in the game and sensing the go-ahead goal was inevitable disappeared in a literal blink of an eye. Although I sat there stunned, I was happy about the season and proud of how the players continually responded when times got tough. 

But that was then. Now comes the reality that the team will change, and it has. Here are my initial thoughts on:

1. Whether there is an organizational direction problem with players
2. What has happened so far
3. What they could, and should, do

Tea Leaves: What is the Sabres’ Organizational Direction?

I have two thoughts here. First, let’s talk high-level. In his post-season comments, Lindy Ruff commented that the great teams know what they do well and go all in on it. I think this has mostly flown under the radar, but it obviously speaks to the philosophical alignment he and Jarmo have with roster construction. 

The question then becomes, what do the Sabres feel is their core strength? Is it purely offensive skill, speed and forechecking, or puck-moving defense that starts the whole engine? We’ll explore the recent roster moves and comments, and see if we can figure this out.  

The second question is, is there something going on behind the scenes that we don’t quite know about? The reason I say this is Jarmo’s word choices regarding Bo Byram and Alex Tuch’s departure struck me as odd.  

In referencing Alex Tuch leaving, Jarmo said, “… at any point in our talks that’d indicate he’d want to sign with us.” If I read this right, they could offer him $12 million a year, but he still wanted out. Sure, it could be location, family, or various other reasons. But this sounds odd for a person playing a large role for his childhood team, helping it break the drought, and flush with young talent. 

In addition, referencing Byram’s departure, Jarmo said Byram wasn’t even going to negotiate with Buffalo. Weird. Is this really only about being called the number 1 defenseman, or is there something bigger here?

These two things, side-by-side, read odd to me, especially for two key pieces of their success. It’s not like they were playing 7 minutes per night. So, is there an organizational philosophy they didn’t want to be a part of? Did they simply want a change of scenery? Was it something bigger? Or am I reading too much into it? Who knows, but it really jumped out to me.    

Buffalo Sabres Offseason Moves (so far)

• Traded Bo Byram to Chicago for a haul. The Sabres sent Byram and Greenway to Chicago for the 4th overall pick (are you kidding me?), the 45th pick, and Louis Crevier.
• Traded Kesselring and the 27th pick in the 2026 draft to the Sharks in exchange for the 20th pick. 
• Sign and trade with the Capitals for Alex Tuch for a 3rd round pick and David Kampf.
• Signed Zach Benson to a 7-year, $7.5M AAV deal.

Byram trade, A+: Byram got what he wanted: out of Buffalo. From Buffalo’s perspective, the return is beyond comprehension. First, I wanted no business paying Byram what he is seeking. Knowing he wanted out, I couldn’t believe the Sabres got the #4 pick. As a bonus, they got rid of Greenway, which is a move I wanted, not because he is a bad player, but because I don’t want to pay a 4th-liner $4M. 

In the trade, Buffalo added D-man Louis Crevier, likely a bottom pair who can play on the PK, and helps replace Kesselring. Crevier may be more of a placeholder until Buffalo’s younger talent develops, but if he continues developing, he may be a steal. Did I mention they have the 4th pick in the draft? This gives them leverage.

Kesselring trade, A: Won’t move the needle, but he wanted a bigger role that he was not going to get in Buffalo. Moving up in the draft is a great move, for no other reason than it makes any potential trade package more appealing. If they keep the pick, no biggie.  

Alex Tuch, A: Tuch was leaving, according to Jarmo, no matter what. To get a needle-in-a-haystack pick works for me, especially since I did not want to pay what Tuch was seeking. Getting Kampf back fills Greenway’s spot, if they choose to sign him. Being a UFA, his last deal was 1/yr, 1.1M. Even if they sign him for more, it’s cheaper than Greenway. With the players they currently have, he likely walks. 

Zach Benson, A: Signed a 7-year, $7.5M AAV deal. Great value, and it eliminates the potential that a team gives him an offer sheet, something Ottawa was rumored to be interested in doing. If he stays healthy and continues to contribute, this is a great deal. 

What Should the Sabres Do Next? 

What they should do next depends on their organizational philosophy, something I mentioned earlier. What do they think they do well and go all in on? We should have the answer to this question by the end of draft weekend. 

Defense: They have a top-four D-man spot to fill, right? If so, do they need to fill it with a Byram-type player? I’m not too sure. If the team’s philosophy is offense and speed, they may be content with the likes of Samuelsson, Crevier, Metsa, and Timmins. However, based on how they rotated players during the playoffs, I think they will still go after a second-pair D-man, even if not quite offensively minded, and here’s why.

Timmins was inconsistent. Metsa’s emergence was promising, but how much more can we expect from a soon-to-be 28-year-old, smaller defenseman? Will Samuelsson continue his unexpectedly good play from last season? Are the guys in Rochester ready to make the leap?

Looking at last season, defensive impatience hurt them in the playoffs. Buffalo got away with some mistakes versus Boston, but Montreal was too skilled. Time after time, Buffalo was weak exiting their own blueline, and as their D tried to jump the rush, the turnover before the puck exited the zone wound up in front of Buffalo’s goal. While I like the attack mindset, after being beaten far too many times, they failed to adjust, and it cost them games in both series.  

I think the team will look for someone from the outside to help sure things up. 

Offense: This is the biggest question mark to me, and an area they need to upgrade. It’s filled with talented and exciting young players, but mostly unknowns. Will Kulich be able to make an impact and stay healthy after a year off? Will Ostlund and Helenius be able to handle the grind of a full NHL season? Will their production live up to the hype? We just don’t know, and for a team in a Stanley Cup window, it’s a big bet to make. If they all do show up, and someone gets hurt, do we have enough depth in Rochester to fill in?

I believe this team is missing a true first-line center (assuming Tage plays at wing). Norris is a second-line, or even third-line center, and was mostly invisible during the playoffs. Injury concerns are real. Krebbs is not a top-line player and needs to find himself permanently on the third or fourth line. Acquiring a top center allows the team to have Tage play at wing. If he plays as C1, it bumps Norris to the third or fourth line, giving you a very dangerous and complete four lines. 

This brings me to the Byram trade and the #4 pick. 

Should the Sabres trade the #4 pick?

If they are all in, then yes! Losing Tuch and Byram takes goals off the roster. Sure, the young players will make up for some, but they need an upgrade at center. Trying to get Thomas during the trade deadline tells me they think this way too.

If possible, I think moving the 4 (plus the extras needed) for either Robert Thomas (if the Blues will re-engage with the #4 pick) or Dylan Larkin is the right move. This would give the Sabres a legit number one center while bumping their other players down to their appropriate lines. Both contracts are friendly, something the #4 pick should grant you. I don’t know, can you toss in #4, McLeod, Levi (they need a G), and another skater/prospect for Thomas?

Knies is a great player, but it leaves a hole at center, which, to compete for a Cup, I think they need more than a winger. However, scoring matters, and I don’t think the Sabres have enough at the moment, at least at face value. I wouldn’t kick and scream if they trade for Knies, but I think a center solidifies you more. This all brings me back to what the team feels they are good at. 

If the Sabres keep the pick, I want a center. I don’t need to develop another D-man. 

Goaltending: Let’s face it, you can get by with good, not great, goaltending and a good team, but you are playing with fire when you do. To me, the Sabres exceeded expectations in this department last season. Do I expect Lyon and UPL to have those seasons again? I don’t. 

I think we’ll take a step back here, and with more young players joining the team, you may need more saves. Also, if you can get more from the position, it can make up for a couple of goals lost with the Tuch and Byram trades

I don’t want to give up the 4th pick for a goalie, but a package to get a player like Hellebuyck (would likely need to involve UPL) would be a welcome move by me. While at his age there are no certainties, pairing him with either Lyon and/or Ellis would immediately, in my opinion, upgrade the position. 

I assume Levi will be moved at some point, but I can’t see him being a centerpiece of any package for a player. 

On to the Draft

It’ll be interesting to see what the Sabres view as their ultimate strength, and how far they’re willing to go to maximize it. So far this offseason, I like what I’ve seen, but there needs to be more. One way or another, these questions will mostly be answered by the end of draft weekend. 

TL;DR:

• Trades have been great for Buffalo so far
• Find a #1 center with a package including the #4 pick 
• Find another D, if you can 
• Upgrade the goaltender, if possible, but not with the #4 pick
• If drafting at #4, take the best center

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