Where Do the Bills Have the Edge Over the Texans? 1st and 5 Podcast Recap

On today’s episode of 1st and 5, Dave and Greg previewed the Bills’ Week 1 matchup with the Texans, the injury report, and what a successful season really looks like, including:

• Why the Patriots’ meltdown was appointment viewing for Bills fans
• The one Bills injury that could actually swing Sunday
• What counts as a successful season in year one under Joe Brady
• Where the Bills hold the real edge against Houston
• Whether the offensive line can keep Josh Allen upright this time

Why Bills Fans Loved the Patriots’ Meltdown

The show opened on some schadenfreude. The Patriots lost to the Seahawks, Drake Maye looked shaky, and a Boston radio host melted down so hard that Dave played the clip, the host writing off Maye’s night as high school football. Greg happily piled on. Week one doesn’t tell him much, but New England is the Bills’ biggest threat in the AFC East, so a Patriots loss is one he had already penciled into his projected standings. Both are fine overreacting when it’s the Patriots doing the crashing out.

The One Bills Injury That Could Swing Sunday

The injury report was short, and Dave zeroed in on the name that matters, Ty Johnson. Johnson didn’t practice with a hamstring, and Dave’s concern is less about his third-down work than about pass protection, since the Texans’ front is exactly the kind that makes a trusted blocking back valuable. Greg doesn’t expect him to play and would rather the Bills rest the hamstring than rush it back and risk a lingering problem.

There was good news, too. Khalil Shakir practiced, and he was Buffalo’s leading receiver in the last matchup. Add a healthy DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid, neither of whom played in Houston last season, and Josh Allen finally gets close to a full set of weapons for this one.

What Does a Successful Bills Season Actually Look Like?

Dave floated the question everyone is chewing on, and both agreed the easy and boring answer is to win the Super Bowl. Greg says the Bills have to win the division, and they have to reach at least the divisional round, with the AFC Championship as the hope. More than the round they exit in, he wants to see a competent offense and real growth from the young defenders they drafted.

Dave pushed back on the national narrative that Joe Brady wears a bullseye and has to top two AFC Championship trips or the hire is a bust. He thinks that’s too much pressure on a first-year coach, and the true test is whether this staff can develop stars on defense and turn names like Deone Walker, IGB, Maxwell Hairston, and Cole Bishop into difference-makers. 

Greg added the twist that stuck with him. If the defense holds up in January and the offense is the unit that stalls, the hard question next year becomes whether Joe Brady is the right guy.

Do the Bills Have the Edge Against Houston?

This was the main topic of the show. Everyone already knows how good the Texans defense is. Last year in Houston, Josh Allen was sacked eight times and hit sixteen in a genuine house of horrors. So Dave reframed the real question. Which matchup favors Buffalo more, the Bills offense against the Texans defense, or the Bills defense against the Texans offense?

They both agreed that the Bills defense against the Texans offense is the better matchup for Buffalo, and it starts with Josh Allen sitting on a different level than C.J. Stroud. 

Greg isn’t sold on Stroud and likes Buffalo’s defensive line to set the tone, as long as the run defense holds up and stops handing over the long touchdown run that plagued them all last year. The one receiver to account for is Nico Collins, and the plan both sketched was to take him away and make Stroud prove he can beat you elsewhere.

For Dave, the real wildcard is that there is no film on Jim Leonhard’s defense. He pointed to Texans coach DeMeco Ryans, who spent the week praising Leonhard while admitting nobody knows what Buffalo’s scheme will show on Sunday. For nine years, everyone knew exactly what a Sean McDermott defense would look like. This time, Houston is the one guessing.

Can the Bills Protect Josh Allen This Time?

The real worry is the Bills’ offense against that Texans’ front. Dave laid out the concerns. Connor McGovern only just returned to practice, Alec Anderson is the new starting left guard, and there are still open questions about Dion Dawkins and whether Spencer Brown is fully healthy. Losing Ty Johnson only makes the pass-protection math harder.

Greg’s fix is all about the pocket. Cut the sacks down to pressures instead of hits, and move him with designed rollouts so he can find Kincaid and Shakir underneath or throw it away and live to the next down. What he does not want to see is Allen taking designed runs up the middle or tush pushes into that front.

Dave’s question is whether Joe Brady learned from the game two years ago, when Allen went 9-for-30 and heaved deep balls. He doesn’t expect a DJ Moore coming-out party, but rather Buffalo establishing the run, keeping Houston’s pass rushers chasing James Cook and Ray Davis, then hitting quick throws underneath, with Jackson Hawes lined up as the blocker since there’s no fullback. 

Both expect a grind, and it appears more like a quick, underneath attack, with a real chance Keon Coleman gets fed early, especially since Brady has spent all offseason signaling he wants Coleman involved.

Wrapping Up

Are the guys nuts? Where do you see the edge? Be sure to let us know. 

The two are back tomorrow with a Texans’ digital beat reporter for the full preview and predictions. You can find the 1st and 5 podcast live on YouTube each weekday starting at 12 ET, and be sure to Like, subscribe, and comment.

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