Bills-Vikings Preview: Can Buffalo Protect the AFC’s Top Seed on Monday Night?

The Bills carry a 6-1 record and the AFC’s top seed into Monday night against a 6-1 Vikings team that wins with defense and almost nothing else. On the 1st and 5 preview shows, Dave and Greg (with Anthony filling in on Friday while Dave shook off an illness) worked through the whole matchup, and injury analyst Kyle Trimble of Banged Up Bills stopped in to sort out a long Buffalo injury list. What they got into:

• How a 6-1 team ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring
• Why Josh Allen’s history against Brian Flores keeps coming up
• What a banged-up offensive line does to Joe Brady’s plan
• Whether Buffalo’s defense can trust anything it sees Monday
• Score predictions, and the hot take Greg is riding

How Did the Vikings Get to 6-1 With an Offense This Bad?

Minnesota sits at 6-1 while averaging 20 points a game, 27th in the league, and the touchdown math is uglier than that. The Vikings have 11 offensive touchdowns through seven games, second-fewest in football, ahead of only the Chargers team Buffalo already beat.

Minnesota keeps winning on defense alone, with Brian Flores running one of the league’s best units and giving up around 13 points a game. A defense that good next to an offense that bad doesn’t win a Super Bowl, and the show doesn’t see this Vikings team as the exception.

Carson Wentz is under center with Minnesota’s starter hurt, and he shifts the math more than the season averages suggest. Wentz will give his receivers chances and take shots at Justin Jefferson, which also means he hands the ball over. The offense runs more than anyone, going to the ground on nearly 63 percent of first and second downs (the highest rate in the NFL) and calling a designed run 60 percent of the time after a first-down incompletion. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is working under real pressure too, with no general manager in place after the team signed one to a five-year deal and fired him four months later.

Can Buffalo’s Defense Trust What It Sees Against Carson Wentz?

Buffalo’s defense should control this game, which is the catch for anyone trying to judge it. The Bills draw a non-scoring offense and a backup quarterback right when they’re still trying to learn what this unit really is before the trade deadline.

Jim Leonhard calling it from the box sets up well against a team this predictable. Anthony wanted Buffalo to turn those run tendencies around on Minnesota with early situational blitzes from a safety or corner to set the tone.

Bradley Chubb has been quiet on the stat sheet, and Greg Rousseau swings between a strip sack and a no-show, which is why the pass rush is the swing in this one. Ed Oliver’s return last week changed how the line played, especially for Rousseau. Five sacks aren’t the ask against a quick-release passer, and flushing Wentz into a few bad throws does the job.

Buffalo’s secondary is the real question, giving up close to 300 passing yards a game and ranking near the bottom against the pass, even if it looked calmer and more connected last week. Anthony pegged Justin Jefferson for around 80 yards and a score, the one they live with as long as Jordan Addison doesn’t go off behind him. Davison Igbinosun has earned the number two corner job, with Maxwell Hairston’s speed an option in certain looks.

Why Does Josh Allen Own Brian Flores?

Josh Allen has never lost to a Brian Flores defense, going back to Flores’s years running the Dolphins, where Allen threw for roughly 1,600 yards across those six meetings. Flores spent about four minutes on Allen in an interview this week and still looked like he couldn’t explain how to handle him.

Flores blitzes more than any coordinator in football, around 75 percent of the time, and plays a lot of zone behind it while disguising everything before the snap. Buffalo’s counter is to refuse to play into it, running the ball, leaning on running back screens, moving the pocket to roll Allen right, and taking the quick, easy throws early. The tunnel screens to receivers are the one thing Minnesota will eat alive, so those stay in the bag.

Against the best defense Buffalo will see all year, Dave wants the simple, dynamic version of Joe Brady’s offense, short quick concepts and schemed-open throws like the rub routes and crossers McVay used to spring the Rams, rather than the long-developing routes that let Flores get home. Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes are better off staying in to chip and protect than running routes, especially with Knox dropping a quarter of what comes his way. Twenty points should be enough to win it, and one betting model’s 10,000 simulations averaged out to a 23-20 Buffalo win.

Is Buffalo’s Banged-Up Offensive Line a Real Problem?

Buffalo’s banged-up offensive line is the biggest concern going in, with Dion Dawkins (rib) and Alec Anderson (ankle) both sitting out early in the week and Spencer Brown (back) limited. Anderson may be dealing with a high ankle sprain, which linemen play through better than skill players do, according to injury analyst Kyle Trimble of Banged Up Bills, and Austin Corbett spelled him after he got rolled up against the Ravens. Dawkins has played through worse and rarely misses.

Unlike the third-string fronts Buffalo has feasted on this year, Minnesota will make a patchwork line pay. Ty Johnson, the best pass-blocking back on the roster, should see passing downs to help keep Allen clean. Keon Coleman popped up with a shoulder issue but stayed limited instead of out, and DJ Moore is good to go. The full Buffalo injury report is here.

Bills or Vikings. Who’s Going to Win?

Everyone who weighed in came out on Buffalo.

• Greg: Bills 27-17. He sees a vanilla, bland game, offense against defense, with Buffalo scoring more because it has Josh Allen and Minnesota has Carson Wentz. He even works a rare missed extra point from Tyler Bass into the math. His hot take runs warmer, with Igbinosun picking off Wentz twice and a pick-six on the table.
• Dave: Bills, getting there on an Allen passing and rushing touchdown, a James Cook score, and two Bass field goals.
• Anthony: Bills, from Friday, trusting the defense to do enough to contain Minnesota.

Both would take the ball first if they win the toss, wanting to put the pressure on Wentz instead of trusting the defense to get a stop.

Bills-Vikings: It’s Time to Play the Game

Do you trust Buffalo’s defense to prove it’s for real against a backup, or does this stay a “we still don’t know” night until the Bills line up across from a real offense?

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