Betting Buffalo with Ben: Week 1 Bills at Rams

Wagers to keep an eye on in Thursday night’s season opener

We finally get to take a look at betting on a meaningful NFL game as the Bills travel to LA to play the Rams on Thursday night. The NFL has the longest offseason in all of sports, but the wait is over.

If you’re looking to bet on Bills games this season, then look no further. This article series will help you become a better bettor and we’ll have some fun throughout the NFL season.

Now, let’s get into the game.

I like the Bills at -2.5

The Bills open as -2.5 favorites against the Rams which tells you the respect that Buffalo is getting this year. Opening up as the favorites against the Super Bowl champs in their own stadium is not something you often.

If the Bills are to win this game there is a very good chance that they win by at least three points. If you don’t want to take that risk you can also take the Bills to win straight up at -136, which is still some good value.

A big rule of thumb in the sports betting world is to go with the home underdog. In this case, it would be the Rams as they are the home team and they are getting +2.5 points. However, the +2.5 point spread is one of the worst lines to bet in the NFL, as about 14% of games are won by exactly a three-point margin. The last time these teams played, it was a 3-point Bills win in 2020:

I like Gabe Davis over 60.5 receiving yards

As far as the player props go for the Bills, keep in mind that it’s tough to gauge in week one. The over for Josh Allen passing yards is set at 274.5, while Stefon Diggs’ receiving yards are set at 69.5 and Gabe Davis has his set at 60.5.

Jalen Ramsay should be covering Diggs the majority of the game, taking him away a good amount of the time, which I believe should open things up for Gabe Davis. We know Davis is primed for a big year, so now is the time to bet his over in yards because it will most likely go up from here on out.

I am going to stay away from every rushing prop as we have no idea how much the running game will be utilized. Will Allen run less? How many snaps will James Cook see? There’s too many questions that have yet to be answered about the run game to put money on rushing yards or rushing TDs in Week 1.

If you’re looking for a bet with some great value, I have one for you.

I like Dawson Knox to score a TD at +220

We know Allen loves Dawson Knox in the red zone as he had nine touchdowns last year. They love to utilize Knox in these situations because of how elusive and quick he is in comparison to linebackers, and how much bigger he is than opposing cornerbacks. If you want to sprinkle a little bit on a TD scorer with great value, that’s going to be it. Plus, he’s feeling good after his new 4-year, $53.6M extension. The Bills obviously plan to involve him a bunch.

I like the under at 52.5

Finally, we look at the over/under, which is set at 52.5. I kinda see this game going similarly to the Super Bowl we saw last year with the Rams and Bengals. I think there is a chance that both offenses could come out a little sluggish. We saw this in the home opener last year when the Bills offense looked flat against the Steelers in that Week 1 loss.

While both offenses are obviously very good, both of their defenses are among the best in the league as well. I can see this being a 24-21 or a 27-24 game in which both cases the under would hit. If you think it’s going to be a shootout then by all means take the over, but in this style of the game, I do like the under here.

To recap favorite plays:

Spread: Bills -2.5

Over/Under: Under 52.5

Prop: G. Davis ov 60.5 yards

Value Play: D. Knox anytime TD