Buffalo Bills
Bills 2022-23 record prediction
We are now about four months away from Buffalo Bills football. It’s time for the Bills prove they belong among the best in the league. I’m going to break down each upcoming regular season matchup and predict the Bills’ 2022 season record. The Bills have the 12th easiest schedule in the league and have a chance to post an impressive record.
The Bills have five primetime games this season, starting off with a bang by going to LA for the NFL’s season opener to face off against the reigning Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Week 1: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Every football fan should mark their calendars for this game as Von Miller faces off against his former team. Both teams are very real Super Bowl contenders this season as the Rams have a chance to run it back.
The Rams have lost a few key pieces to their Super Bowl winning roster, including Von Miller (signed to Bills) and Andrew Whitworth (retired.) There are also some questions about where Odell Beckham Jr. may end up this offseason after unfortunately tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl.
The Rams still have an amazing team despite these few loses. And unfortunately, the Rams will beat the Bills start off the season with a loss with the nation watching. Prediction (0-1).
Week 2: Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans
The Bills are going to be facing off against the Titans in week two on Monday Night after losing in week one. The Bills lost this matchup last time they faced off and Derrick Henry ran all over the Bills defense. The Bills have picked up many weapons on the d-line in order to stop the run and will be more prepared for the Titans.
The Titans lost their star wide receiver AJ Brown this offseason and replaced him with Treylon Burks (rookie wide receiver from Arkansas). The Titans defense won’t be ready for the Bills offense this time. The Bills lost last time the two teams played, 34-31, but the Bills will be looking for revenge this time. Chalk this one up as a win. Prediction (1-1).
Week 3: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins made a crazy trade this offseason, trading with the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins are a solid team and are not a team that Buffalo will walk all over any more. But, the addition of Tyreek Hill will not be enough to beat the Bills’ defense. The Bills will be ready for trick plays with Hill and short drag routes, forcing Tua Tagovailoa to throw the football.
The Dolphins are not ready to overcome Josh Allen and the Bills quite yet, as the Bills will pickup their second win on the season. Prediction (2-1).
Week 4: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
The Bills are set to face off against the Ravens in Week 4 and it should be a fun one. The last time the Bills played the Ravens was the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs in 2020 where the Bills beat the Ravens 17-3.
The Ravens are not a team to be pushed around and they’re one of the AFC’s underdogs this year. They’ll have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Lamar Jackson, and he will be healthy. But, I believe the Bills will have just enough to beat the Ravens in this week and will rack up their third straight win. Prediction (3-1).
Week 5: Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers went into the NFL Draft thinking “quarterback” and left feeling satisfied as they have gotten their quarterback for the foreseeable future. The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league right now, in large part due to TJ Watt. They also added former Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack.
The Steelers have made many moves this offseason to put them in a good situation but the Bills have the ability to stop the Steelers offense, no matter who is at quarterback for them. The Bills will play the Steelers at home, where they lost in the opener last year, and win it in front of Bills Mafia this time around to string together four consecutive wins. Prediction (4-1).
Week 6: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Well, well, well… the Chiefs, again. The Chiefs have been marked on the Bills’ calendars since the Divisional Round of the playoffs last season. The Chiefs have lost their star wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins and now have Juju Smith-Schuster as their number one receiver. They’ll still have one of the best quarterbacks in the league along with one of the best tight ends in the league, and a likely-improved defense.
This is going to be a tough game for the Bills to win. The Bills will go into Kansas City and lose to the Chiefs again. But, they’ll most likely meet in the postseason, and hopefully it will be in Western New York that time around. Prediction (4-2).
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers
The Bills will be facing off against the Packers at home in Week 8 on Sunday Night Football. The Packers are a very good team with a very good quarterback, and they’ll remain a really good team even with the loss of their star wide receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders. However, they don’t have enough weapons this year on offense to succeed like last season.
The Bills are a team that will have the offensive firepower at home to be able to beat the talented Packers. The Bills will win in Week 8 at home. Prediction (5-2).
Week 9: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
The Jets have made many moves this offseason and on paper look like a very good team. They have had arguably the best draft by any team, selecting cornerback Ahmad Gardner with the fourth overall pick and wide receiver Garrett Wilson with the tenth pick.
The Jets still have some work to do before they can compete with the Bills but they have done a great job this offseason in free agency and in the draft. The Bills will take the win in Week 9 against the Jets. Prediction (6-2).
Week 10: Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings
The Bills will be taking on the Vikings in Week 10. The Vikings have a very talented offense with one of the best young receivers in Justin Jefferson and one of the best running backs in the league in Dalvin Cook.
The Vikings won’t be able to overpower the Bills defense in Buffalo though, as the Bills will pick up their seventh win on the season. Prediction (7-2).
Week 11: Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns
The Bills will be facing the Browns at home in Week l1. The Browns have just acquired Deshaun Watson after him not playing last season for the Texans due to sexual assault charges, and the length of the suspension is up in the air for this year. The last time the Bills played Deshaun Watson was in the 2019 Wild Card Round against the Texans where the Bills lost 22-19.
The Browns will be very different with the addition of WR Amari Cooper, and despite the additions, the Bills should be able to win this game no matter who is playing QB for Cleveland. Prediction (8-2).
Week 12: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
The Bills will take on the Lions in Week 12 on Thanksgiving day. The Bills played on Thanksgiving night last season against the Saints and came away victorious. The Lions had the second pick in this year’s NFL Draft and have selected pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson from Michigan.
The Lions are a developing young team with a lot of young talent but aren’t very good right now. The Lions will not be able to contain the Bills explosive offense. Josh Allen is 2-0 on Thanksgiving, and they’ll make it 3-0 as America watches on while diving into their Thanksgiving plates. Prediction (9-2).
Week 13: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
The Bills will be facing the Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 13. The last time these two faced each other was the Wild Card Round last year, as the Bills demolished the Patriots, scoring a touchdown on every single one of their seven drives and breaking playoff records.
The Patriots have not done much compared to other AFC East teams this offseason and it will show when the season starts. The Bills will beat the Patriots on Thursday night, advancing to ten wins. Prediction (10-2).
Week 14: Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
The Bills will be facing the Jets for the second time this season. We’ve already went over some of the key moves the Jets have made this offseason but the Bills are still a better all-around football team with more experience together, and the Jets record at this point might not be great. The Bills will win their second meeting with the Jets and rack up their eleventh win. Prediction (11-2).
Week 15: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
In the second matchup of the year against Miami, the Bills will be at home where they have manhandled the Dolphins in recent years. The Dolphins don’t have a good enough quarterback to beat the Bills defense, but they do have quality running backs and they can keep it close for a bit. But, the Bills will win this matchup once again. Prediction (12-2).
Week 16: Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
The Bills will be facing off against Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears in Week 16. The Bills should have an advantage as they face a young quarterback in Justin Fields. The Bears have added a few wide receivers that should help the rookie, including Byron Pringle and Velus Jones Jr. But, as we’ve seen, Sean McDermott loves facing off against young QBs.
The Bears defense on the other hand aren’t going to match well with the Bills offense. They have some good names on that side of the ball but the Bills should be able to win in that aspect. The Bills are going to win this game. Prediction (13-2).
Week 17: Buffalo Bills at Cincinatti Bengals
The Bills are facing the Bengals in Week 17. The Bengals played against the LA Rams in last season’s Super Bowl and lost. They’re a very good, young team and had a great chance at winning the Super Bowl if it wasn’t for their horrible o-line. The Bengals have tried to fix that this off-season by adding right tackle La’el Collins, right guard Alex Cappa, and center Ted Karras.
Despite the additions for Cincy, the Bills are better on both sides of the ball and more experienced. Josh Allen will shine brightest in primetime, especially if there’s seeding at stake. The Bills will win this game in Week 17 and advance to 14-2. Prediction (14-2).
Week 18: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
The final game of the season for Buffalo will be their second matchup against the Patriots. We have already gone over what the Patriots have done this offseason, and it wasn’t very much at all. They had an underwhelming draft and don’t look ready to take on the Bills on both sides of the ball.
The Bills are going to win this game in the final week of the regular season and possibly earn the number one seed in the AFC with a record of 15-2.
The Buffalo Bills have an opportunity this week. Brandon Beane and company can show the NFL world that not only are they not going through a “rebuild,” but that they are committed to following the league trend of getting “younger and cheaper” and still have a Super Bowl caliber roster.
Since 2018, the Buffalo Bills have the best draft efficiency in the NFL, meaning that Brandon Beane has done the most with his draft picks. Not only have the Bills been successful with their first-round picks under the Beane administration, but it seems that Beane and company only get better as the draft goes on.
Day three of the draft is Brandon Beane’s time to shine. In rounds four through seven, he’s selected the likes of Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson, Khalil Shakir and Christian Benford—all good, starting talent.
So, giving Brandon Beane the most opportunities to draft, i.e. the most draft picks, should be the Bills approach to this year’s draft. Afterall, young players are the most cost-effective and with the Bills current salary cap situation, this should be the theme we see this year.
The Bills positions of need this season are wide receiver, defensive line, edge, interior offensive line, safety and running back. Other than Curtis Samuel, Brandon Beane hasn’t had any big free agency splash-signings so far this offseason, so coming up big in the draft is imperative.
Who Should the Bills Draft?
As it stands today, the Bills have 10 draft picks. Here is a mock draft that supports the “younger and cheaper” motif and fills the Bills positional needs.
First Round (#28 overall pick): Bills trade to the Cardinals for their Second Round (#35 overall) and Third Round (#71 overall) picks
I projected the Bills to trade their 28th pick to the Cardinals in exchange for the Cardinal’s 35th and 71st pick. The Cardinals are a good suitor as they have an early second round pick and are not in the Bills conference.
Second Round (#35 overall pick): Adonai Mitchell, Wide Receiver, Texas
The 2024 wide receiver class is deep.
Adonai Mitchell is a receiver I’ve seen mocked to the Bills heavily.
Sean McDermott is on record of saying that the Bills need a receiver that provides matchup issues for other teams and Mitchell fits the bill. He’s a fast, fluid route runner with good size that makes red zone matchups difficult for other teams.
With the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, all of Bills Mafia knows that a wide receiver early in the draft is a must.
Second Round (#60 overall pick): Kris Jenkins, Defensive Line, Michigan
Currently, the Bills have Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones and Austin Johnson on their active defensive line roster. McDermott likes to rotate heavily at this position and adding a young stud defensive lineman with team control for multiple years makes sense.
Kris Jenkins fits the Bills defensive line profile well. He is excellent at taking on double teams, very strong and has a quick lateral first step.
Third Round (#71 overall pick): Jaylen Wright, Running Back, Tennessee
The Bills are also thin at running back and have yet to sure-up the position in free agency.
After James Cook and Ty Johnson, there’s nobody and the Bills need depth at the position.
Jaylen Wright is an exceptional athlete who has good blocking concepts and would prove an asset to spell James Cook and Ty Johnson.
Fourth Round (#128 overall pick): Sione Vaki, Safety, Utah
The Poyer/Hyde era is over.
The Bills will likely start the season with Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards as their starters and with Sean McDermott’s defensive concepts and his “safety whisperer” ability, the Bills should be alright.
But after Rapp and Edwards, the Bills have Cam Lewis and Damar Hamlin who aren’t proven safety commodities in the NFL.
Sione Vaki’s athleticism is apparent as he played running back, slot receiver and safety at Utah. He may be a “Swiss Army Knife” kind of player in the NFL.
Fourth Round (#133 overall pick): Mohamed Kamara, Defensive End, Colorado State
Greg Rousseau is great, AJ Epenesa is good and Von Miller is a crapshoot at this point. Also, Casey Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan add depth, but the Bills need another edge rusher.
Mohamed Kamara is a powerful, physical player who has some size issues, but would complement Greg Rousseau well.
Fifth Round (#144 overall pick): Isaiah Williams, Wide Receiver, Illinois
Yes, the Bills should double-dip at the wide receiver position. Will they wait to get their second guy until the fifth round? Who knows.
Isaiah Williams is projected to be a WR4/5 and would likely be a special teams contributor as well.
Fifth Round (#160 overall pick): Tyler Davis, Defensive Line, Clemson
Again, the Bills are looking for lasting depth at the defensive line position and Tyler Davis would provide that.
Fifth Round (#163 overall pick): Zak Zinter, Guard, Michigan
With the departure of Mitch Morse and Ryan Bates, the Bills are looking for some reliable depth at the interior offensive line.
As it stands right now, O’Cyrus Torrence and David Edwards would likely take over the guard positions with Connor McGovern moving to center.
After this, the only depth that is 53-man roster quality is center, Will Clapp.
Zac Zinter excels at man/gap schemes and would be a great fit for the Bills and offensive line coach, Aaron Kromer.
Sixth Round (#200 overall pick): Isaac Guerendo, Running Back, Louisville
Again, the Bills need running back depth.
Isaac Guerendo’s NFL floor is at a third-down back and would likely add special teams depth.
Sixth Round (#204 overall pick): Tip Reiman, Tight End, Illinois
The Bills have good tight end depth as it stands.
However, Tip Reiman has the size and physicality to be the Bills practice squad tight end.
Seventh Round (#248 overall pick): Carter Bradley, Quarterback, South Alabama
The consensus amongst Bills fans and Bills media is that the Bills need to draft a quarterback to develop and have under team control instead of spending valuable cap space on a backup for Josh Allen.
Carter Bradley would likely serve as a practice squad guy along with Shane Buechele.
Dalton Kincaid’s 2023 rookie season was one for the Buffalo Bills record books.
Not only did he lead all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, targets and yards after catch (YAC); he outgained every Bills tight end GROUP in these numbers since Josh Allen’s rookie season in 2018.
When the Bills moved up to the 25th spot to draft Kincaid last year, a majority of Bills Mafia was baffled. The Bills had needs at offensive tackle and linebacker. Tight end was low on the list of who Bills fans thought general manager, Brandon Beane, would select. After all, the Bills were already paying proven tight end, Dawson Knox a lot of money for multiple seasons.
But the dynamic that Kincaid was able to add to the Bills offense in 2023 without any prior NFL experience placed him not only among the Bills tight end all-time greats, but his numbers placed him in the top-20 of many all-time Bills receiving numbers too.
Here is how Dalton Kincaid compared to his all-time single-season Bills counterparts:
Receptions (73)
Amongst Tight Ends: 1st
Amongst All Receivers: 20th
Receiving Yards (673)
Amongst Tight Ends: 2nd
Amongst All Receivers: 80th
Targets (91)
Amongst Tight Ends: 1st
Amongst All Receivers: 47th
Catch Percentage (80%)
Amongst Tight Ends: 2nd
Amongst All Receivers: 3rd
Yards Per Game (42.1)
Amongst Tight Ends: 3rd
Amongst All Receivers: 94th
Receptions Per Game (4.6)
Amongst Tight Ends: 1st
Amongst All Receivers: 30th
With the exit of Stefon Diggs this offseason, Bills offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, will be primed to distribute the ball more to his stud second-year tight end. And if his rookie season is a predictor of how his sophomore year will play out, Dalton Kincaid will set the NFL world on fire in 2024.
We know that Brandon Beane has been instrumental to the Bills turnaround on the field and his “Trust the Process” approach has been ingrained into the hearts and souls of Bills Mafia faithful.
Beane has brought in key free agents, but it has been his drafting ability that has cemented the Bills into the elite of the NFL.
We know the Bills General Manager has done well in the draft, but how have the Bills drafts compared to the other team’s since Beane’s first NFL draft in 2018?
Through hours of research and my own formula, I have come up with a way to determine which team’s drafts have been the most fruitful since Beane became the Bills General Manager.
This Draft Proficiency formula takes each draft pick’s Approximate Value (a number Pro Football Reference assigns to each player that measures their impact) and divides it by the maximum number of seasons each draft pick would have played, assuming they played every season since they were drafted—which obviously isn’t the case, but player longevity is a factor that teams try to forecast when drafting.
The formula isn’t perfect, but it measures apples to apples and incorporates each draft pick’s career successes in association to their possible time in the league.
Anyways, the results confirm what we already know—Brandon Beane is good at evaluating draft picks.
But how good is he? And could he be the best general manager at evaluating and drafting players into the NFL?
Here are his a round by round look at which teams had the most success in the NFL draft since 2018.
Round 1
Brandon Beane has done remarkably well in the first round and it all starts with drafting his first pick with the Bills, Josh Allen. By getting JA17 right and not picking Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, Beane proved his eye for talent.
He’s also hit with Tremaine Edmunds (2018), Ed Oliver (2019), Greg Rousseau (2021) and Dalton Kincaid (2023). His one miss, if you want to call it that, was Kaiir Elam in 2022—and the book is still out on him.
Beane’s first round draft proficiency score of 9.00 ranks third in the NFL since 2018.
Round 2
It’s been well documented that Brandon Beane has had difficulties drafting in the second round.
His first second round pick was Cody Ford in 2019 and although he’s still in the league, he’s been a backup-level offensive lineman at best.
Boogie Basham (2021) was another disappointment for the Bills (now Giants) and in three seasons has started zero games and has a total of 4.5 sacks.
2020 saw Beane pick AJ Epenesa, who was a project and really didn’t come into his own until this past season.
More recently, the Bills have drafted James Cook (2022) and O’Cyrus Torrence (2023) who have been great for the Bills and hopefully if they continue their successful play can help to change the tide regarding Beane’s second round troubles.
Beane’s second round draft proficiency score is 3.80, which ranks 19th in the NFL since 2018.
Round 3
Brandon Beane’s draft success in the third round is amongst the best in the NFL and he’s found more value in this round than he has in the second round.
Although they’re not all still with the Bills, every third round pick the Bills have made since 2018 has either proven to be an effective starter in the league or a key impact-player off the bench:
Harrison Phillips (2018)
Devin Singletary (2019)
Dawson Knox (2019)
Zach Moss (2020)
Spencer Brown (2021)
Terrel Bernard (2022)
The book is still out on 2023 pick, Dorian Williams, but if past results are any indicator, Williams will also be an impact player very soon.
Beane’s third round draft proficiency score is 5.00 which is tied for first in the NFL since 2018.
Round 4
Brandon Beane has picked two players in the fourth round in his six seasons with the Bills—Taron Johnson and Gabe Davis.
A part of Beane’s masterclass of 2018, Taron Johnson was an All-Pro in 2023 and has proven to be one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league.
And say what you will about Gabe Davis, the man put up solid numbers at WR2 and came up big when the Bills needed him time after time.
In fact, Beane has produced more talent in the 4thround than in the 2nd round at this point.
Beane’s fourth round draft proficiency score is 5.50, which is head and shoulders above the next highest team (Cowboys—3.27).
Round 5
The fifth round hasn’t been as kind to Brandon Beane.
Although he did draft Wyatt Teller (2018), who has yielded multiple Pro Bowls with the Browns and Khalil Shakir (2022), who held the best catch percentage for a wide receiver EVER in 2023; Beane has had a number of 5th round misses compared to his counterparts including:
Vosean Joseph (2019)
Jake Fromm (2020)
Tommy Doyle (2021)
It’s too early to tell yet with 2023 fifth round pick, Justin Shorter, but don’t expect him to dazzle anytime soon.
Beane’s fifth round draft proficiency score is 1.85, which is 11th in the NFL since 2018.
Round 6
Brandon Beane has been average in the 6th round compared to the rest of the NFL teams.
Although he did find starting cornerback, Christian Benford (2022) and the Bills kicker, Tyler Bass (2020); the rest of the picks have been mediocre at best and a couple are even out of the league.
Special Teams role players such as Ray-Ray McCloud (2018), Isaiah Hodgins (2020) and Damar Hamlin (2021) have lived up to their sixth-round status.
Other who are out of the league or will be soon include:
Jaquan Johnson (2019)
Marquez Stevenson (2021)
Rachad Wildgoose (2021)
Luke Tenuta (2022)
Beane’s sixth round draft proficiency score is 1.29, which is 14th in the NFL since 2018.
Round 7
The sixth and seventh rounds really are crapshoots. However, there is still value in these rounds and Brandon Beane has found some players that make meaningful contributions to the Bills.
Dane Jackson (2020) helped fill in and was the Bills primary starter in 2022 when Tre White was still on the mend. He provided solid depth for the Bills last season and will likely contribute with his new team, the Panthers, in 2023.
Baylon Spector (2022) is another seventh rounder who has had meaningful defensive snaps for the Bills and will continue to provide linebacker depth for them in 2023.
Beane’s seventh round draft proficiency score is 0.82, which is 10th in the NFL since 2018.
Brandon Beane’s Buffalo Bills are the most proficient at drafting players since 2018.
From the first round through the seventh round, no one is better at evaluating and drafting players than Brandon Beane. Not only does he lead the league in draft proficiency, the second place Ravens are a whole two tenths of a point away from the Bills.
Brandon Beane and company have a chance to cement their drafting reputation next week when they’ll be picking ten players—the most of any Brandon Beane draft.
-
Buffalo Bills8 months agoBills Release Seven Players Sunday
-
Buffalo Bills5 months agoWho Bills Fans Should Root For This Weekend
-
Buffalo Bills2 years agoThe five worst draft picks from the drought
-
Buffalo Bills5 months agoWho Bills Fans Should Root For This Weekend
-
Buffalo Bills7 months agoImpressions of My First Trip to Buffalo
-
Buffalo Bills4 months agoWho Bills Fans Should Root for This Weekend
-
Buffalo Bills2 years agoPower ranking every AFC team
-
Buffalo Bills1 year agoBuffalo Bills down to just 4 active receivers