Now that the shock of trading Stefon Diggs has subsided for most Bills fans and General Manager, Brandon Beane has filled the offensive roster (for the most part), let’s look at what a Diggs-less Bills offense will look like in 2024.

Stefon Diggs was a premier wide receiver in the league during his four-year tenure in Buffalo.  He was among the league leaders in catches and receiving yards each year and came up with many big plays. 

It’s clear that Diggs was Josh Allen’s number one guy and it wasn’t even close.

However, down the stretch in 2024 after Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator, Diggs was invisible and his numbers reflected that of a mediocre receiver who’s effort might not have been what Bills fans were used to seeing.

In the Bills final nine games, including two playoff games, Stefon Diggs caught 34 passes on 58 targets (58.6% catch percentage) with 388 yards (43 yards per game) and only 1 touchdown.

Did he attract teams’ number one cornerbacks?  Yes.  But this is no different than any other point in his Bills career.

Combine his decreased production with his salary drain and his off the field burden to the team (cryptic Twitter posts, inconsistent Bills camp attendance); the Bills brass were ready to take Diggs out of the equation.

So what are the Bills going to do without Stefon Diggs in 2024?

First and foremost, the presumed need for Josh Allen to throw to Diggs is gone.  In other words, the Bills won’t have to keep one person happy by force-feeding him the football and a more team-oriented less-ego driven offense will be showcased in 2024.

Here is a percentage breakdown of where all of Josh Allen’s passes were targeted after Joe Brady took over starting in week 11.

Stefon Diggs 26.7%
Dalton Kincaid   18.1%
Khalil Shakir      12.8%
James Cook        12.4%
Gabriel Davis      8.5%
Trent Sherfield  5.3%
Dawson Knox     5.0%
Latavius Murray 4.6%
Ty Johnson         3.6%
Deonte Hardy    1.8%
Quintin Morris   0.1%
Andy Isabella     0.01%

If you add up the departed pass catchers, 46.9% of the intended targets will be gone in 2024. 

Exiting in 2024 are Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Latavius Murray and Deonte Hardy.

Returning from 2023 is wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook. 

The Bills added wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Chase Claypool via free agency and Keon Coleman through the draft.  They also provided a bigger running back to spell James Cook with Ray Davis.

With a full offseason for Joe Brady to scheme and a few new weapons added to his arsenal, anticipate the Bills to run more 12 personnel (two tight end sets) than in 2023 and even utilize the ground game more.

It’s interesting to note the difference in play calling with Joe Brady versus Ken Dorsey last season.  Ken Dorsey called passing plays 57.1% of the time and run plays 42.9% of the time.  While Brady called 52.6% running plays and 47.7% passing plays.

With this information, here is a breakdown of the anticipated touches for each offensive player for the Bills in 2024 with their current roster.  This is based off 1092 total offensive plays, which is the same amount the Bills ran in 2023:

Running Game
Joe Brady’s offense ran the ball nearly 53% of the time last season and this should continue in 2024.  I’d anticipate that the Bills run the ball a total of 649 times with the running attempts going to the following players:

James Cook        225 attempts
In 2023, James Cook was the Bills featured back and he excelled most of the season but began to decline a bit later in the season and in the playoffs.  This may have been because his workload was more than DOUBLE that of any season since his first year at Georgia in 2018.

I’d anticipate James Cook’s workload going down a bit.  He carried the ball 237 times in 2023 and I’m predicting 225 rushes this season.

Ray Davis            173 attempts
The Bills didn’t use a 4^th round draft pick on Ray Davis for him to ride the pine.  Unlike James Cook, his college workload was heavy and he carried the ball a lot.  Look for Ray Davis’s rush attempts to be slightly less than James Cooks and for him to be on the field often as he’s also an excellent pass catcher.

Although Sean McDermott has a history of being hesitant to give rookies playing time early in the season, Ray Davis will get the looks early and often.

Josh Allen           104 attempts
Remember when Bills Brass tried to contain Josh Allen and not allow him to freely run whenever he wanted last year?  Well, that didn’t work and once Joe Brady became the Bills new offensive coordinator, he gave Josh the keys to use his legs whenever he wanted—and the Bills went on a hot streak after that happened.

Look for Josh Allen’s rushing attempts to come down a bit in 2024 as Joe Brady has had an offseason to scheme up some plays to get other playmakers going. 

Ty Johnson         85 attempts
In five NFL seasons, Ty Johnson has had no more than 63 total rush attempts (2019 with Detroit). 

Look for Ty Johnson to spell James Cook and Ray Davis and be an important part of Joe Brady’s running attack.

Mitch Trubisky/Wide Receivers/Practice Squad Running Backs                  55 attempts
Kyle Allen had 13 neal downs in 2023, the Bills had 7 wide receiver rushing attempts and 35 practice squad running back rushes.  These are necessary.

Passing Game
Joe Brady’s offense threw the football 47.7% of the time in 2023, which wasn’t a typical Brian Daboll/Ken Dorsey-led offense; but under Joe Brady, I’d anticipate a similar outcome in 2024.

Brady is going to have to figure out how to redistribute the 241 targets vacated by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and it shouldn’t be too hard considering the Bills projected 2024 main receiving target options have excellent reception percentage and playmaking ability.

I’d anticipate the following player targets this coming season:

Dalton Kincaid  115 Targets
After getting 91 targets in 2023 and catching over 80% of the passes that came his way, look for Dalton Kincaid’s production to continue to climb and Josh Allen’s trust in him to be sky-high. 

Kincaid has what it takes to be an All-Pro level tight end and he’ll get his opportunity in 2024.

Khalil Shakir       98 Targets
Did you know that Khalil Shakir posted the highest EVER catch percentage for a wide receiver?  Well, it’s true and he did it in 2023.

Shakir is another pass catcher that has gained Josh Allen’s trust and look for his production to skyrocket in 2024.

Curtis Samuel    90 targets
Curtis Samuel has had 90+ targets in four consecutive healthy seasons in Carolina and Washington and there’s no reason why he wouldn’t again in 2024.

Keon Coleman  87 targets
It’s hard to predict what a rookie “X” receiver will do on a Sean McDermott-led team.  Some rookies see a lot of playing time (O’Cyrus Torrence, Dalton Kincaid) and some do not (James Cook, Khalil Shakir). 

However, the Bills didn’t draft Keon Coleman along with Josh Allen’s endorsement to not see the field.

James Cook        57 targets
James Cook had 54 targets in 2023.  He’ll have at least that many in 2024 I’d anticipate him getting more touches through the air and less on the ground with Ray Davis absorbing more rushing attempts.

Dawson Knox    54 targets
When he’s healthy, Dawson Knox gets between 50-60 targets a season.  However, last season he missed five games, and he now has a diminished role, being the TE2. 

It’ll be interesting to see Dawson’s role in the Bills 2024 offense.

Ray Davis            38 Targets
In 36 career college games, Ray Davis had a total of 86 receptions and was lauded for his great hands coming out of college.

Latavius Murray and Damien Harris combined for 29 targets last season and I could see Ray Davis getting at least that many in 2024.

Mack Hollins     13 Targets
Although he has had no less than 22 targets in his career and a career high 94 in 2022, there simply are too many hungry mouths to feed on the Buffalo offense this season.

Mack Hollins is an interesting case as many suspect he’ll be used for his blocking ability more than his receiving.

Justin Shorter, Ty Johnson, Quintin Morris, Reggie Gilliam, Chase Claypool, Practice Squid WR’s                                16 Targets
Justin Shorter is a wild card at this point.  He could be as high as the Bills WR5 or he could be as low as being a practice squad player or even cut.  Training Camp will tell us more about Shorter.

Ty Johnson had seven targets with the Bills last season in 10 games.  He may have more than that this year if he is the Bills true RB3.

The Bills love Quintin Morris for his special teams ability.  However, after having three targets in 2023, he probably won’t move the radar in 2024 for the Bills receiving offense either.

So many questions surround Chase Claypool.  If he’s the same receiver who played with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburg, he could legitimately be a lot higher on this list and get 75+ targets.  If he’s the same guy who played in Chicago/Miami the past two seasons, he could very easily be cut.

Reggie Gilliam is good for a couple targets a season.  Like Quintin Morris he’ll make the 53-man squad as a special teams ace.

It’ll be interesting to see how the 2024 season plays out.  Joe Brady introduced a much more balanced offensive attack after he took the reins midway through the season.

Will we see a more run-heavy approach as we did down the stretch in 2023?

Or, with the fact that Josh Allen won’t feel the need to force-feed Stefon Diggs, will we see a Bills passing attack that will include a plethora of talented pass catchers?

The Buffalo Bills announced the signing of veteran wide receiver, Chase Claypool today.

Claypool, a four-year veteran, played nine games with the Dolphins last season after being traded from the Bears to Miami.

In twelve total games in 2023, Claypool had 8 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown with a 38.1% catch percentage—the lowest numbers of his career.

The Bills hope to capture the success of Chase Claypool’s first two seasons in the NFL where he career where he averaged 60 receptions for 866 yards and recorded 11 total receiving touchdowns. 

Claypool joins a Bills receiving room that includes rookie Keon Coleman and veterans Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins.

The Buffalo Bills finished their draft with ten new players added to the roster. However, the fun didn’t stop there for General Manager Brandon Beane and company. As they do every year, all 32 NFL teams rushed to sign their favorite undrafted free agents once the draft concluded. Buffalo came away with 11 undrafted free agent signings so far, along with 10 rookie minicamp invites. Let’s take a look at all the new signings and players invited:

Undrafted Free Agents

Southern Miss RB Frank Gore Jr.

We all know legendary running back and former Buffalo Bill, Frank Gore. While his playing time is done, his sons is just getting started. Gore is a 5’8″, 201 lbs back that knows how to find ways through holes and has good contact balance. He’s plays a bit slower than his 40-yard dash time tells, but he should be able to make a good run at the final-53.

#Bills UDFA RB Frank Gore Jr:

• 5’8, 201lbs
• 4.5 speed
• 1k yards last 2 years
• Solid pass catcher (+ in screen game)
• Excellent blocker
• Low center of gravity runner
• Not true power back but looks for contact
• Comfortable between tacklespic.twitter.com/BaCO9EARNP

— Sterling Bennett (@49ers_Access) April 28, 2024

Ohio State WR Xavier Johnson Jr.

Xavier Johnson Jr. is a 6’0″, 202 lbs wideout. He’s an exciting player that can do a little bit of everything. He’s not the biggest, fastest, or strongest. Although, he can be a great special teamer – both as a gunner and returner – but he’ll need to work on his receiving attributes, if he wants to fit into an NFL offense.

The VERSATILITY that I’m seeing from UDFA Xavier Johnson Jr….Bills fans get excited for training camp. Solid Curtis Samuel understudy.

Hope he can stick around, because I see WR, RB, KR & gunner.

My OSU fan friends say he’s a weapon 👀 #WeaponX pic.twitter.com/pgVRGK9PDY

— Karlton with a K (@karltonspeaks) April 28, 2024

Tulane WR Lawrence Keys

A smaller receiver, Lawrence Keys comes in at 5’11”, 170 lbs. Keys is a versatile wideout that can take a screen to the house or track a deep ball downfield. He’s a bit undersized, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Bills see him as a special teamer with the potential to be used in creative ways offensively.

#Bills UDFA WR Lawrence Keys from Tulane was a Notre Dame transfer … can scoot 💨 pic.twitter.com/wQ6uexAb9M

— Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) April 28, 2024

Auburn OL Gunner Britton

Britton is a massive lineman coming in at 6’6″, 312 lbs. He has long arms and quick feet while excelling in the passing game. He’ll play through the whistle, but his agility and athleticism limits his ability to be consistently dominant.

Another great interview after the @ShrineBowl! @GunnerB75 is a solid dude! #ALLIN2024 pic.twitter.com/QwWxewe8Es

— All In Sports Outreach (@All_In317) February 2, 2024

Campbell OT Mike Edwards

Edwards is a gigantic tackle that comes in at 6’7″, 355 lbs. He knows how to use his size as he’s not afraid to lay a big hit downfield. His feet are great but his size limits his athletic ability. He’ll need to improve his run block and hasn’t played against top talent, leaving some questions.

I've learned the following things about Bills UDFA OL Mike Edwards

• Former ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
• He was 6'5 4/8" & 363 at pro day, 5.33 40-yard dash, 7.50 3C
• Campbell is the Fighting Camels

— Chris Trapasso 🏈 (@ChrisTrapasso) April 28, 2024

Utah OG Keaton Bills

A player that was born to be a Bill. Keaton Bills is a 6’4″, 321 lbs guard that was projected to be a draft pick by many. His feet never stop moving and is very in control of his body while engaged in a block. His size makes it tough for him to consistently get out of his stance. He’s got the name to be in Buffalo, but he’ll need to prove it in camp.

My notes on Keaton Bills, UDFA with…the Bills: pic.twitter.com/BYD9Eyz4Sl

— Dean Kindig (@TCBILLS_Astro) April 28, 2024

Miami DT Branson Deen

Branson Deen is a 6’2″, 280 lbs defensive tackle that comes in after never playing a full season of college football. He has a good mix of pass rush moves and excels in the run game. He’ll need to stay healthy to make this Bills team but has the ability to be a force despite being a bit undersized at the position.

Welcome to The U Branson Deen pic.twitter.com/IfaubC8lgl

— CCANE89 ➐ (@CanesNumber1) January 9, 2023

Houston EDGE David Ugwoegbu

The former Houston edge rusher, David Ugwoegbu, comes in at 6’4″, 250 lbs. David has a long arms and big hands, helping him chase down ball carriers and wrap up. He’ll need to work on angling but also has the ability to be an inside linebacker. The Bills will need to decide how they view him and would like to use him.

“Officially his best game as a Sooner.” David Ugwoegbu (@D_U_30) has his best game of his season against Oklahoma State last season.

Expect him to breakout with Year 2 of Speed-D‼️ pic.twitter.com/06G1b90ITK

— Quinn (@soonergoat) April 26, 2020

Oklahoma EDGE Rondell Bothroyd

Bothroyd is a 6’4″, 277 lbs edge rusher that knows how to get after the quarterback. His quickness off the line stands out and keeps his balance while engaged with blockers. He isn’t elite in any one area and will need to become a very well rounded edge rusher if he wants to have a long career.

Edge Rushers with the highest pass rush grades this season:

🥇 Chop Robinson: 92.0
🥈 Rondell Bothroyd: 90.4
🥉 Jared Verse: 90.0 pic.twitter.com/csoJx1DRaG

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 23, 2022

Western Michigan CB Keni-H Lovely

Keni-H is an athetic 5’10” corner that is terrific at mirroring wideouts. He has to add some strength to make up for his lack of size, but can go up and get the ball. Lovely is an interesting UDFA that could fit as a depth piece for the Bills that can line up outside and in the slot.

Keni-H Lovely is a CB prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 7.68 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 574 out of 2473 CB from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/mqIi55ezZl pic.twitter.com/5GIlqU7e0O

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 23, 2024

San Diego State P Jack Browning

After being a zero star recruit, Browning finds his way in the NFL after a playing both kicker and punter in college. His versatility could earn him a spot on the practice squad, but it’ll be hard for him to crack the top-53. He has a great leg as a kicker, but is more known for accuracy as a punter.

Jack Browning Buffalo Bills , SDSUhttps://t.co/lyF3eozkVT

— CarlSG (@XXXZZZ111432) April 28, 2024

Rookie Minicamp Invites

• Troy QB Gunnar Watson
• Kansas TE Mason Fairchild
• Wisconsin OL Michael Furtney
• FIU DT Jack Daly
• South Dakota LB Stephen Hillis
• Jacksonville State LB Kolbi Fuqua
• Clemson CB Sheridan Jones
• Arkansas CB Al Walcott
• Furman CB Travis Blackshear
• Syracuse DB Jason Simmons
• UB K Alex McNulty-Romaguera