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Predicting the records of AFC East teams

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2 years ago

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(AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

The AFC East should be an interesting division in 2022-23 as every team has improved their roster and have young players that are looking to step into their own this season. Some big moves have been made by each team and this is a division that could have multiple teams fighting for playoff spots. In this article, we are going to be breaking down the Bills division rivals and who could pose the biggest threat to the Bills’ divisional reign this season.

New York Jets record prediction: 6-11

The New York Jets will once again be led by head coach Robert Saleh and quarterback Zach Wilson – both going into their second season with the team and looking to build off of what they started last year. While Wilson mostly struggled in his rookie season, he did show some flashes of ability at times. He’s a young player and wasn’t surrounded by the best talent at the skill positions last year. He’ll be looking to take a leap going into his second year, and he now has a bit more help to make that leap realistic.

They are bringing back one of Wilson’s favorite targets in WR Braxton Berrios, and they went out and signed former Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah. In the Draft, they picked up a couple guys that can contribute right away on offense: running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson. And, with WR Elijah Moore set to break out in year two, they finally have an onslaught of weapons for their young QB.

The Jets had one of the best drafts in the league this last month, as they improved greatly on the defensive side of the ball as well. They picked CB Ahmad Gardner with their 4th overall pick, as well as edge rusher Jermaine Johnson with the 26th overall pick.

The Jets are a young team with a lot of young, highly-regarded talent. While they’re most likely not going to be making any noise this year, they will be playing with a lot of heart and promise as their youngsters will be looking to make an imprint not only on the new team, but in the league as well. The Jets will not be a team to be taken lightly this year, but I don’t see them as having enough experience to compete for the AFC East title.

New England Patriots record prediction: 8-9

While I do believe the Patriots are going to regress a little bit this year, they will still be a formidable opponent as long as Bill Belichick is around. The Patriots were relatively quiet in the offseason and their draft was… interesting. They used their first round draft pick on OL Cole Strange, which many of us, including Patriots fans, thought was a “strange” pick to say the least (pun intended). Rams HC Sean McVay was even captured on video saying, “we wasted our time watching him, thinking he’d be at #104 maybe.”

While we all had a good laugh at that, the Patriots did re-sign some key pieces to their roster including Matthew Slater, Devin McCourty and James White. They signed Ty Montgomery to give them some depth at RB/WR, CB Terrance Mitchell, as well as former Patriots Super Bowl hero, CB Malcolm Butler.

The Patriots and their fans are expecting Mac Jones to take a big leap in his second year after seeing his first season in the NFL. And while myself, and many of us have different opinions on Mac Jones’ future, his play this year will definitely be something to watch moving forward, because if Jones improves the way a lot of people think he will, then the Patriots could be a much better team in the near future.

Expect the Patriots to fall around .500 or so this year. With still not having many big names on offense and a schedule much more difficult than last year, I don’t see the Patriots having the success they had a year ago when they made the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins record prediction: 10-7

The Dolphins are the team in the division, besides Buffalo, that have made the most improvements this offseason – with the big trade acquiring Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs. Along with Hill, they added explosive running backs Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmunds andSony Michel. They re-signed tight end Mike Gesicki and they have a stud second-year WR in Jaylen Waddle on the outside as well.

On paper, this offense looks like it’s going to be very tough to stop, but the only thing that may end up stopping this offense is the guy who leads it: Tua Tagovailoa. He is and will always be the biggest question mark of how well this team performs. Even his own coaching staff and front office have indicated that they are not sold on Tagovailoa to be their franchise guy, consistently looking at other options like Deshaun Watson to take the reigns of the team. This will most likely be Tagovailoa’s last chance to put up or shut up and show that he can lead the Dolphins to the playoffs.

The Dolphins defense should be quite solid once again. They re-signed star CB Xavier Howard and DE Emmanuel Ogbah, and they added DE Melvin Ingram. On both sides of the ball the Dolphins are looking like a team that could cause some problems. Fortunately for the Bills, Josh Allen is 7-1 in his career against the Phins and it doesn’t look like he has any plans to allow the Dolphins to get a win against him any time soon.

Again, I think most would agree that this Dolphins team is a very solid team on paper, but Tagovailoa is ultimately going to be the reason why they don’t make a run deep in the playoffs. He has the weapons on offense, but lacks the arm strength and accuracy to make exciting things happen on offense. It’s up to new HC Mike McDaniel and Tagovailoa to be able to utilize those weapons now.

Buffalo Bills record prediction: 13-4

The Bills are 11-1 in divisional play the last two years and have a fairly strong hold on the AFC East right now. They are once again the favorites to win the division by a long shot. Key additions for this year include Von Miller, Jamison Crowder, OJ Howard, Rodger Saffold, Kaiir Elam, James Cook, and the list goes on. The Bills have arguably the most loaded roster from top to bottom on both sides of the ball. An elite secondary as well as a defensive front which includes a mix of young guys such as Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham along with veterans such as Miller, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson and Tim Settle. The defense will be among the league’s best yet again.

On the offensive side, the Bills have elite playmakers such as Allen, Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Crowder (who will be a sneaky-good addition), and 3rd-year WR Gabe Davis who is looking to come into his own this year as the team’s WR2 – and we all know he is capable of that.

13-4 is being modest for this team. They are absolutely capable of beating any team they play and could easily get more than 13 wins. However, with a more difficult schedule this year and improved teams all across the board, I could see them dropping a couple games. But, they are still going to be the team to beat in the AFC. Securing the #1 seed should be the highest priority coming into this year, as going into Buffalo in January and facing Josh Allen and the Bills’ defense is something that no one will want to endure.

My final thoughts for the AFC East is that the Bills will win the division for the 3rd year in a row by a couple games. The Dolphins will sneak in and grab a wild card this year and Bill Belichick will be watching the Bills on his couch this year in January. The Jets should show improvement from last year but ultimately come in 4th once again in the AFC East.

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24 year old Bills fanatic and writer from Rochester, NY. Studied Business writing and Marketing at The College of Brockport and graduated May 2020. I've been a die hard Bills fan from a very young age and they remain a huge focal point of my life. I love writing, talking about the Bills, or sports in general.

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Buffalo Bills

No Diggs, No Problem for Bills in 2024

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2 weeks ago

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May 7, 2024

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Now that the shock of trading Stefon Diggs has subsided for most Bills fans and General Manager, Brandon Beane has filled the offensive roster (for the most part), let’s look at what a Diggs-less Bills offense will look like in 2024.

Stefon Diggs was a premier wide receiver in the league during his four-year tenure in Buffalo.  He was among the league leaders in catches and receiving yards each year and came up with many big plays. 

It’s clear that Diggs was Josh Allen’s number one guy and it wasn’t even close.

However, down the stretch in 2024 after Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator, Diggs was invisible and his numbers reflected that of a mediocre receiver who’s effort might not have been what Bills fans were used to seeing.

In the Bills final nine games, including two playoff games, Stefon Diggs caught 34 passes on 58 targets (58.6% catch percentage) with 388 yards (43 yards per game) and only 1 touchdown.

Did he attract teams’ number one cornerbacks?  Yes.  But this is no different than any other point in his Bills career.

Combine his decreased production with his salary drain and his off the field burden to the team (cryptic Twitter posts, inconsistent Bills camp attendance); the Bills brass were ready to take Diggs out of the equation.

So what are the Bills going to do without Stefon Diggs in 2024?

First and foremost, the presumed need for Josh Allen to throw to Diggs is gone.  In other words, the Bills won’t have to keep one person happy by force-feeding him the football and a more team-oriented less-ego driven offense will be showcased in 2024.

Here is a percentage breakdown of where all of Josh Allen’s passes were targeted after Joe Brady took over starting in week 11.

Stefon Diggs 26.7%
Dalton Kincaid   18.1%
Khalil Shakir      12.8%
James Cook        12.4%
Gabriel Davis      8.5%
Trent Sherfield  5.3%
Dawson Knox     5.0%
Latavius Murray 4.6%
Ty Johnson         3.6%
Deonte Hardy    1.8%
Quintin Morris   0.1%
Andy Isabella     0.01%

If you add up the departed pass catchers, 46.9% of the intended targets will be gone in 2024. 

Exiting in 2024 are Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Latavius Murray and Deonte Hardy.

Returning from 2023 is wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook. 

The Bills added wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Chase Claypool via free agency and Keon Coleman through the draft.  They also provided a bigger running back to spell James Cook with Ray Davis.

With a full offseason for Joe Brady to scheme and a few new weapons added to his arsenal, anticipate the Bills to run more 12 personnel (two tight end sets) than in 2023 and even utilize the ground game more.

It’s interesting to note the difference in play calling with Joe Brady versus Ken Dorsey last season.  Ken Dorsey called passing plays 57.1% of the time and run plays 42.9% of the time.  While Brady called 52.6% running plays and 47.7% passing plays.

With this information, here is a breakdown of the anticipated touches for each offensive player for the Bills in 2024 with their current roster.  This is based off 1092 total offensive plays, which is the same amount the Bills ran in 2023:

Running Game
Joe Brady’s offense ran the ball nearly 53% of the time last season and this should continue in 2024.  I’d anticipate that the Bills run the ball a total of 649 times with the running attempts going to the following players:

James Cook        225 attempts
In 2023, James Cook was the Bills featured back and he excelled most of the season but began to decline a bit later in the season and in the playoffs.  This may have been because his workload was more than DOUBLE that of any season since his first year at Georgia in 2018.

I’d anticipate James Cook’s workload going down a bit.  He carried the ball 237 times in 2023 and I’m predicting 225 rushes this season.

Ray Davis            173 attempts
The Bills didn’t use a 4th round draft pick on Ray Davis for him to ride the pine.  Unlike James Cook, his college workload was heavy and he carried the ball a lot.  Look for Ray Davis’s rush attempts to be slightly less than James Cooks and for him to be on the field often as he’s also an excellent pass catcher.

Although Sean McDermott has a history of being hesitant to give rookies playing time early in the season, Ray Davis will get the looks early and often.

Josh Allen           104 attempts
Remember when Bills Brass tried to contain Josh Allen and not allow him to freely run whenever he wanted last year?  Well, that didn’t work and once Joe Brady became the Bills new offensive coordinator, he gave Josh the keys to use his legs whenever he wanted—and the Bills went on a hot streak after that happened.

Look for Josh Allen’s rushing attempts to come down a bit in 2024 as Joe Brady has had an offseason to scheme up some plays to get other playmakers going. 

Ty Johnson         85 attempts
In five NFL seasons, Ty Johnson has had no more than 63 total rush attempts (2019 with Detroit). 

Look for Ty Johnson to spell James Cook and Ray Davis and be an important part of Joe Brady’s running attack.

Mitch Trubisky/Wide Receivers/Practice Squad Running Backs                  55 attempts
Kyle Allen had 13 neal downs in 2023, the Bills had 7 wide receiver rushing attempts and 35 practice squad running back rushes.  These are necessary.

Passing Game
Joe Brady’s offense threw the football 47.7% of the time in 2023, which wasn’t a typical Brian Daboll/Ken Dorsey-led offense; but under Joe Brady, I’d anticipate a similar outcome in 2024.

Brady is going to have to figure out how to redistribute the 241 targets vacated by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and it shouldn’t be too hard considering the Bills projected 2024 main receiving target options have excellent reception percentage and playmaking ability.

I’d anticipate the following player targets this coming season:

Dalton Kincaid  115 Targets
After getting 91 targets in 2023 and catching over 80% of the passes that came his way, look for Dalton Kincaid’s production to continue to climb and Josh Allen’s trust in him to be sky-high. 

Kincaid has what it takes to be an All-Pro level tight end and he’ll get his opportunity in 2024.

Khalil Shakir       98 Targets
Did you know that Khalil Shakir posted the highest EVER catch percentage for a wide receiver?  Well, it’s true and he did it in 2023.

Shakir is another pass catcher that has gained Josh Allen’s trust and look for his production to skyrocket in 2024.

Curtis Samuel    90 targets
Curtis Samuel has had 90+ targets in four consecutive healthy seasons in Carolina and Washington and there’s no reason why he wouldn’t again in 2024.

Keon Coleman  87 targets
It’s hard to predict what a rookie “X” receiver will do on a Sean McDermott-led team.  Some rookies see a lot of playing time (O’Cyrus Torrence, Dalton Kincaid) and some do not (James Cook, Khalil Shakir). 

However, the Bills didn’t draft Keon Coleman along with Josh Allen’s endorsement to not see the field.

James Cook        57 targets
James Cook had 54 targets in 2023.  He’ll have at least that many in 2024 I’d anticipate him getting more touches through the air and less on the ground with Ray Davis absorbing more rushing attempts.

Dawson Knox    54 targets
When he’s healthy, Dawson Knox gets between 50-60 targets a season.  However, last season he missed five games, and he now has a diminished role, being the TE2. 

It’ll be interesting to see Dawson’s role in the Bills 2024 offense.

Ray Davis            38 Targets
In 36 career college games, Ray Davis had a total of 86 receptions and was lauded for his great hands coming out of college.

Latavius Murray and Damien Harris combined for 29 targets last season and I could see Ray Davis getting at least that many in 2024.

Mack Hollins     13 Targets
Although he has had no less than 22 targets in his career and a career high 94 in 2022, there simply are too many hungry mouths to feed on the Buffalo offense this season.

Mack Hollins is an interesting case as many suspect he’ll be used for his blocking ability more than his receiving.

Justin Shorter, Ty Johnson, Quintin Morris, Reggie Gilliam, Chase Claypool, Practice Squid WR’s                                16 Targets
Justin Shorter is a wild card at this point.  He could be as high as the Bills WR5 or he could be as low as being a practice squad player or even cut.  Training Camp will tell us more about Shorter.

Ty Johnson had seven targets with the Bills last season in 10 games.  He may have more than that this year if he is the Bills true RB3.

The Bills love Quintin Morris for his special teams ability.  However, after having three targets in 2023, he probably won’t move the radar in 2024 for the Bills receiving offense either.

So many questions surround Chase Claypool.  If he’s the same receiver who played with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburg, he could legitimately be a lot higher on this list and get 75+ targets.  If he’s the same guy who played in Chicago/Miami the past two seasons, he could very easily be cut.

Reggie Gilliam is good for a couple targets a season.  Like Quintin Morris he’ll make the 53-man squad as a special teams ace.

It’ll be interesting to see how the 2024 season plays out.  Joe Brady introduced a much more balanced offensive attack after he took the reins midway through the season.

Will we see a more run-heavy approach as we did down the stretch in 2023?

Or, with the fact that Josh Allen won’t feel the need to force-feed Stefon Diggs, will we see a Bills passing attack that will include a plethora of talented pass catchers?

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Buffalo Bills

Bills Sign Receiver Chase Claypool

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2 weeks ago

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May 3, 2024

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The Buffalo Bills announced the signing of veteran wide receiver, Chase Claypool today.

Claypool, a four-year veteran, played nine games with the Dolphins last season after being traded from the Bears to Miami.

In twelve total games in 2023, Claypool had 8 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown with a 38.1% catch percentage—the lowest numbers of his career.

The Bills hope to capture the success of Chase Claypool’s first two seasons in the NFL where he career where he averaged 60 receptions for 866 yards and recorded 11 total receiving touchdowns. 

Claypool joins a Bills receiving room that includes rookie Keon Coleman and veterans Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins.

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Buffalo Bills

Bills Pick Up Greg Rousseau’s Fifth-Year Option

Published

3 weeks ago

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April 30, 2024

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Rich Barnes/GettyImages

The Buffalo Bills have picked up the fifth-year option for defensive end, Greg Rousseau. 

Greg Rousseau was an enticing 6’ 6”, 265 lbs defensive end out of the University of Miami. Rousseau was taken by the Bills in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft at pick 30, ever since then, Rousseau has been a large contributor in the Bills defense.

Rousseau will make $13.4 million in 2025, the fifth-year, and will make $2.3 million this upcoming season, which is a part of his four year rookie contract.

In the 2023 regular season, Rousseau played 16 games where he had 42 total tackles, 30 solo tackles, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 4 passes defended. In his three years with the Bills, Rousseau has 17 sacks and 129 tackles. Greg Rousseau was second in terms of tackles on the Bills defensive line last season. 

The Buffalo Bills current defensive ends consists of Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, AJ Epenesa, Javon Solomon, Casey Toohill, Kingsley Jonathan, and Kameron Cline. 

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